Women's March Madness: 6 Best Bets for the First Round of the Women's NCAA Tournament

The Women's NCAA Tournament is finally here, and that gives us a loaded board with a mix of powerhouse favorites, live underdogs, and a few totals worth targeting.

Team efficiency, scoring margins, rebounding edges and style-of-play matchups matter even more in tournament settings, where unfamiliar opponents and short turnarounds can magnify strengths and weaknesses.

Below are the Best Bets for the first round of the Women’s College Basketball Tournament.

Betting odds via FanDuel Sportsbook's women's March Madness odds and may change after this article is published

Women's NCAA Tournament Best Bets for the First Round

Washington vs. South Dakota State

South Dakota State +6.5

This looks like one of the trickiest first-round games on the board. FanDuel’s odds list Washington as just a 6.5-point favorite, which is a strong sign this matchup is much closer than a typical 6-vs-11 game.

South Dakota State has the profile of a team that can absolutely hang around for 40 minutes. The Jackrabbits enter the tournament on a 10-game winning streak, and their season-long numbers are excellent: 76.6 points per game, 48.4% shooting from the field, a +15.3 scoring margin, and a +7.9 rebounding margin. Brooklyn Meyer has been one of the most efficient stars in the field, averaging 22.4 points and 8.0 rebounds while shooting 64.6% from the floor, and Madison Mathiowetz adds 13.6 points per game with 40.1% three-point shooting.

Washington is very good and absolutely has the backcourt talent to win this game. Sayvia Sellers averages 18.5 points and 3.7 assists, Avery Howell is putting up 13.7 points and 8.3 rebounds while hitting 41.9% from three, and the Huskies own a solid +9.5 scoring margin on the year. But Washington’s biggest edge comes from perimeter play, while South Dakota State’s interior efficiency through Meyer gives the Jackrabbits a dependable half-court scoring base that should travel well in March.

That matters because underdogs are most attractive when they can avoid empty possessions. South Dakota State doesn’t need to shoot lights out from deep to stay within the number; it can score through Meyer, rebound well enough to avoid being buried on second chances, and force Washington to execute in the half court. With the spread sitting under two possessions, this is the kind of game where the underdog can lose and still cash with room to spare.

The read is that Washington may survive, but South Dakota State has too much offensive structure and frontcourt reliability to pass on the points.

NC State vs. Tennessee

Tennessee Moneyline (+102)

This is one of the more interesting first-round games because the teams already know each other. NC State drew Tennessee again after beating the Lady Vols by three points earlier this season, and a local NC State recap also noted that Bart Torvik had Tennessee and NC State nearly side by side nationally, with Tennessee actually one spot ahead.

The basic team profiles back up how close this is. Tennessee averages 77.4 points per game and forces a lot of chaos with athletic guards and active defenders. Talaysia Cooper leads the way at 16.1 points per game, Janiah Barker adds 14.0 points and 6.7 rebounds, and Zee Spearman chips in 10.1 points and 5.8 boards. Tennessee also averages nearly 40 rebounds and over 10 made threes per game, giving it multiple ways to generate offense when transition chances are available.

NC State is more polished offensively and has the more dominant rebounder in Khamil Pierre, who averages 16.8 points and 12.0 rebounds. Zoe Brooks gives the Wolfpack another high-end scorer at 16.3 points per game, and NC State owns a strong +10.7 scoring margin with 43.1 rebounds per game. This is clearly not a fade of the Wolfpack as a team.

What pushes me toward Tennessee is the game environment. NC State closed the ACC Tournament with a loss to Notre Dame, while Tennessee was bounced by Alabama in the SEC Tournament. Neither team is entering off a deep conference-tournament run, which reduces the edge of recent momentum and puts more emphasis on raw matchup dynamics. Tennessee’s athleticism on the perimeter and ability to pressure the ball are the traits I trust most in a near coin-flip tournament game.

FanDuel lists NC State as just a 2.5-point favorite, which tells you the market already saw almost no separation between these teams. In spots like that, I prefer the side with more volatility, more shot-creation from the guard line, and more upset equity. Tennessee checks those boxes.

If you want to be conservative, Tennessee +2.5 is defensible. But for a best-bets card, I’d go straight to the moneyline.

Miami (OH) vs. West Virginia

Under 125.5

This total stands out because both teams defend at a level that should make clean looks hard to come by. Although 125.5 is already a low number by college standards, there are still good reasons to think this game plays under.

West Virginia has been elite on the defensive end. The Mountaineers allow only 58.6 points per game, force a huge number of turnovers, and are led by Jordan Harrison, who averages 12.8 points, 5.4 assists, and a massive 97 steals on the season. Kierra Wheeler adds interior presence with 13.5 points and 7.5 rebounds per game, while Sydney Shaw spaces the floor at 41.5% from three. But the identity of this team is defense first, pressure first, disruption first.

Miami is a dangerous underdog, but it also defends. The RedHawks give up just 58.7 points per game, hold opponents to 38.3% shooting, and have a balanced attack led by Amber Tretter, Amber Scalia, Ilse de Vries, and Tamar Singer. That kind of balance is part of why Miami won 28 games, but it also signals a team that is comfortable playing a controlled style instead of trying to win a track meet.

The matchup itself points under, too. West Virginia’s ball pressure should shorten possessions and make Miami work deep into the shot clock. On the other side, Miami’s defense is strong enough to prevent this from turning into a one-sided avalanche unless West Virginia gets a bunch of transition opportunities. And because tournament games often tighten up early, especially when a mid-major underdog is trying to stay composed against a physical host team, I’m expecting a slower and uglier first half than the market may fully price in.

This is also a game where the underdog covering and the under correlates pretty naturally. If Miami hangs around, it almost certainly does so by dragging the tempo down and forcing West Virginia into more half-court offense. Even if the Mountaineers win comfortably, both defenses are strong enough that 125.5 still feels a touch high.

Maryland vs. Murray State

Murray State +31.5

Large spreads in the NCAA Tournament often create opportunities for underdogs to cover, especially when those underdogs have elite scoring guards.

Murray State fits that profile perfectly. The Racers have one of the most productive offenses among mid-major teams and are led by Halli Poock, who averages more than 22 points per game while creating offense both off the dribble and from the perimeter.

Murray State also rebounds well enough to prevent opponents from piling up second-chance points, which is often how heavy favorites extend large leads.

Maryland is the more talented team and should win the game, but covering a 30-point spread in a tournament environment is difficult, particularly once rotations shorten late in the second half.

If Murray State continues to score efficiently, the Racers should stay within the number.

Notre Dame vs. Fairfield

Fairfield +10.5

This is another matchup where the spread suggests the teams are closer than the seed line indicates.

Notre Dame is the higher-seeded team, but the Irish enter the tournament as only a 10.5-point favorite over Fairfield.

Fairfield plays a disciplined style built around efficient half-court offense and strong defensive rotations. That approach tends to translate well in tournament play because it minimizes turnovers and forces opponents to execute offensively.

The Irish have more overall talent, but if Fairfield controls the tempo and keeps the game in the half court, this could easily turn into a single-possession game late in the fourth quarter.

Even if Notre Dame survives, Fairfield has a strong chance to cover the spread.

Illinois vs. Colorado

Colorado +3.5

This game has the profile of a classic 7 vs 10 upset opportunity.

Colorado’s biggest advantage comes in the frontcourt. The Buffaloes rebound well and create second-chance scoring opportunities, which can be a major factor in tournament games where shooting percentages often dip.

Illinois has had a solid season but has struggled at times when facing teams that dominate the glass.

If Colorado controls rebounding and slows the pace, the Buffaloes should be able to keep the game close throughout the second half.

Because the spread is just over one possession, the underdog has significant value both against the spread and on the moneyline.

Which March Madness odds stand out to you this year? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest college basketball betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.