WNBA Betting Picks to Target for Friday 6/21/24

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33
WNBA Betting Picks to Target for Friday 6/21/24

The WNBA is back, and fans and bettors alike can get into the action on FanDuel Sportsbook.

The W's 40-game season offers a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. While there's a lot to sift through, advanced stats from the WNBA can help us find an edge in the betting market.

Let's dive into the WNBA odds on FanDuel Sportsbook and find today's best bets.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

WNBA Best Bets

Indiana Fever at Atlanta Dream

Fever -2.5 (-112)

The Indiana Fever (6-10) will look to extend a three-game winning streak in tonight's contest against the Atlanta Dream (6-7), and some key injury news should alter how we view this game.

Atlanta comes in with a -4.0 net rating (tied for fourth worst) while Indiana owns a -11.1 net rating (worst). Indiana's offense ranks four spots ahead of Atlanta's, though their defense trails seven spots behind.

The Dream are turning the ball over at the second-lowest rate and sport the third-highest free-throw rate in the league. Add in home-court advantage, and I wasn't bullish on backing the Fever when they opened as 2.0-point favorites for this contest.

However, Rhyne Howard has since been ruled out for Atlanta due to a lower leg injury, and her absence opens the door for Indiana to keep their winning streak alive.

Howard is averaging 15.4 points, 3.4 assists, and 2.2 steals per game, all of which are team-leading marks. The Dream have the second-worst offense in the league, trailing just a hair behind the Washington Mystics, and with Howard gone, they have now lost their main offensive spark.

These teams met up for the first time this season on June 13th. The Fever prevailed with a 91-84 victory despite Howard putting on a show with 26 points. Not only did she lead Atlanta's offense, but she did so efficiently, going 7-for-15 from the field and 6-for-10 from downtown.

For a team that produces that worst effective field goal percentage in the W, I consider Howard's loss quite impactful, but the market hardly budged when she was ruled out.

Indiana's offense will hold up their end of the bargain, but their roll-over-and-die defense has burnt them on many occasions. Luckily for them, Atlanta doesn't seem capable of fully taking advantage of their defensive shortcomings.

Aliyah Boston has started to play more and more like the player who was named to the 2023 WNBA All-Star team and awarded Rookie of the Year honors, and Indiana sports a 2.3 net rating (5th) across the last two weeks of play. The Dream own a -4.1 net rating (8th) in this span and struggle with a concerning -9.1 net rating in June. With all this in mind, I will be cautiously backing the Fever tonight.

Connecticut Sun at Las Vegas Aces

Sun +6.5 (-110)

It's easy enough to be intrigued by this matchup, but it's even easier to be intrigued by how the market is operating for this contest.

We're a third of the way through the WNBA season, and the Connecticut Sun (13-1) are the clear top dogs of the league. The Sun's 13.1 net rating leads the league, and they're surrendering a mere 70.7 points per game (fewest).

However, Connecticut has gotten some flack for their easy schedule thus far. Their lone loss was at the hands of the New York Liberty (second-best net rating) and they haven't faced the Seattle Storm (fourth-best net rating). But there's one more team they have yet to cross off their list: the reigning back-to-back champions.

The Las Vegas Aces (7-6) have already matched their loss total from the 2023 season and are 4-4 on their home floor. Point blank, they do not deserve to enter this contest as 6.5-point favorites.

Chelsea Gray made her long-awaited return for Vegas this past Wednesday, logging 16 minutes off the bench. She has a huge effect on this team and will help restore them to their winning ways, but a minute-restricted Gray might not have that impact in tonight's battle.

Las Vegas is 2-4 when going up against the top five defenses in the league. A date with the best defense of all could be equally as unforgiving.

Look for Connecticut to control the pace in this one. These teams are on the opposite tempo spectrums with the Sun playing at the slowest pace and Vegas playing at the fastest pace. Connecticut's defense has proven time and again that it can serve as the ultimate arbiter in tempo.

A slower-than-normal pace will force the Aces to be more cognizant of their shot selections. It certainly helps when you have someone like A'ja Wilson on your side, but Alyssa Thomas' defense can keep up with the best of them.

We saw Thomas shut down Breanna Stewart earlier this season, and if she can prove at all limiting against Wilson, Connecticut should have no problem keeping this one close. Kelsey Plum has been an inefficient scorer but has maintained a high shot volume. Given the importance of possessions in a pace-down game, I do not have confidence that Vegas can cover this spread.

Gray will provide a spark off the bench, and the Aces aren't short on threats, so it was expected for them to be slightly favored on their home court. However, at this moment in time, I will back Connecticut against any team in the league when afforded 6.5 points to do just that.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.