WNBA Betting Picks and Player Props for Saturday 6/29/24

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33

The WNBA is back, and fans and bettors alike can get into the action on FanDuel Sportsbook.

The W's 40-game season offers a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. While there's a lot to sift through, advanced stats from the WNBA can help us find an edge in the betting market.

Let's dive into the WNBA odds on FanDuel Sportsbook and find today's best bets.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

WNBA Best Bets

Las Vegas Aces at Washington Mystics

Aces -12.5 (-106)

The Las Vegas Aces (9-6) seem to be back to their bullying ways and will meet up with a short-staffed Washington Mystics (4-14) group on Saturday afternoon.

Had we been talking about the Aces of weeks past -- a team that was without Chelsea Gray and in turn dropping questionable games -- this 12.5-point spread would have been unappealing.

But since Gray returned from injury, Vegas has won three straight games by double-digits, two of which were against legit teams in the Connecticut Sun (14-3) and Seattle Storm (11-6).

Last season, Gray contributed averages of 15.3 points and 7.3 assists. Her 96.2 defensive rating was the second-best mark in the entire league among those who participated in at least 30 games and averaged at least 20.0 minutes.

The importance of Gray -- a 2024 USA Women's Olympic team selection -- cannot be understated. Vegas sports a +13.0 net rating since her return, which would be good for the best mark in the league over the full season.

A'ja Wilson and Jackie Young were already contributing to one of the league's top offenses, and Gray's return has allowed Vegas to show up on both ends of the floor.

Washington is trending in the opposite direction. After starting off the season with an eye-popping 0-12 record, they managed to win four out of their next five games, but injuries have short-circuited this comeback.

Starters Karlie Samuelson and Brittney Sykes will both be sidelined for extended time, while Shakira Austin and Aaliyah Edwards missed Thursday's game and are questionable for tomorrow's contest.

The Mystics are 0-10 against teams that rank in the top half of offensive rating, and Vegas ranks second in this regard. Washington is also 0-8 against squads in the top five of net rating, losing these games by an average margin of 11.1 points.

Once we factor in how well Vegas has been performing since Gray's return and the blows to Washington's starting lineup, the Aces look well-equipped to cover this spread.

A'ja Wilson Over 38.5 Pts + Reb (-108)

A domineering Aces victory couldn't be capped off without A'ja Wilson stealing the show.

The current Most Valuable Player chalk (-550 WNBA MVP odds) is averaging 39.3 combined points and rebounds (PR) per game.

Wilson has sailed past 38.5 PR in 8 out of 15 games (53.3% of contests) and has notched at least 36.0 PR in all but three games, so I'm satisfied with these -108 odds, which imply a 51.9% probability.

There is a strong correlation between resounding Vegas victories and Wilson's PR numbers. This season, the Aces have won seven games by at least nine points. In this split, Wilson is averaging 42.0 PR and recorded at least 42 PR in all but two of those games.

Vegas ranks first in pace while Washington ranks sixth, so we should be in for plenty of possessions in this one.

Add in that Washington may be without a pair of bigs in Austin and Edwards, and Wilson could rack up stats at will on Saturday.

Dallas Wings at Seattle Storm

1st Half Spread/Total Parlay: Storm -5.5 / Under 84.5 (+230)

The Seattle Storm (11-6) have turned a new leaf this season, and if it weren't for those pesky Minnesota Lynx, the team would be off to an 11-3 start.

Seattle hammers inferior teams. They own a perfect 7-0 record against teams that fare in the bottom half of net rating, and the Storm have gone into the half up by a minimum of five points against these squads.

If we're talking about inferior teams, the Dallas Wings (4-13) might just take the cake. On Thursday, they were resuscitated from an 11-game losing streak after Minnesota basked in the afterglow of their Commissioner's Cup victory for a little too long, but an overall -7.7 net rating (third-worst) and a -12.5 net rating across their last 10 games (worst) tells the true story of Dallas.

Seattle's +7.0 net rating ranks fourth in the league, and the Wings are 1-6 against teams that rank in the top half of net rating, going into the half down by an average margin of 5.3 points.

The Storm's injury report is clean while the Wings have recently lost starter Maddy Siegrist (14.6 points and 4.2 rebounds) to a broken finger.

In the four games since Siegrist went down, Dallas has entered the half down by an average of 10.3 points. The team owns an abysmal -18.5 first-half net rating in this span.

Seattle, a team that is 6-1 at home and 5-5 on the road, looks primed to cover a light 5.5-point first-half spread on their home floor against a lost Dallas group. It could be worthwhile to parlay that with the under.

The Storm's 94.4 defensive rating (third-best) improves to 93.9 (second) in the first half. Dallas is averaging 40.1 points in the first half (fourth-lowest) and 37.8 points against the top four defenses in this split.

Past halftime, Seattle ranks second in pace and Dallas ranks fourth. But in the first half, Seattle's pace ranks fourth while Dallas' checks in 10th. This is a pretty glaring difference in tempo, yet the market has the first-half over/under set at 84.5 points despite just a 164.0-point over/under for the game.

The Storm's D should prove limiting across the board, and I'm not too concerned that their offense will burn the under. Seattle scores just 22.2% of their points via threes (fourth-lowest) and runs at a slower-than-normal pace at the start of games.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.