Wimbledon Women's Championship Odds: Will We See a First-Time Winner in 2024?

Kenyatta Storin
Kenyatta Storin@KenyattaStorin
Wimbledon Women's Championship Odds: Will We See a First-Time Winner in 2024?

With the French Open barely in the rearview mirror, the tennis calendar makes its annual quick visit to grass courts, culminating in arguably the most famous and prestigious of the four Grand Slams: Wimbledon.

The Wimbledon main draw will begin play on Monday, July 1st, and Wimbledon Betting Odds are already up on FanDuel Sportsbook.

How do the odds shake out for this year's field? Let's take a look at how the top contenders stack up on the women's side.

Wimbledon Women's Singles Championship Odds

Aryna Sabalenka+330
Iga Swiatek+340
Elena Rybakina+500
Coco Gauff+650
Ons Jabeur+1300
Naomi Osaka+1500
Jessica Pegula+1800
View Full Table

Aryna Sabalenka (+330)

Dating back to 2021, no one has been more consistent across the four Grand Slams than Aryna Sabalenka. Over her last 11 majors, Sabalenka has reached at least the semifinals eight times, which includes three finals appearances and two titles (both at the Australian Open).

At Wimbledon specifically, Sabalenka has been a semifinalist the last two times she competed (she was unable to play in 2022), but grass is probably her weakest surface. Per Tennis Abstract, Aryna boasts around a 70% win rate on hard and clay courts, but that dips to 62% on grass.

Even so, Sabalenka has been fantastic this year at 30-9, and even when accounting for surface, she's third overall in Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings.

While it's worth noting the Belarusian retired from her most recent match on Saturday due to shoulder pain, it was likely a precautionary measure, as she seems to be practicing as normal at Wimbledon, and it clearly hasn't affected her odds as one of the top contenders.

Among the 12 players with the shortest odds to win the title, Elena Rybakina and Marketa Vondrousova are the only previous Wimbledon champions. If Sabalenka is at her best, it wouldn't be the least bit shocking to see her advance to at least the semifinals for the third time.

Iga Swiatek (+340)

The rest of the women's field is probably happy to be past the clay season after Iga Swiatek dominated yet again, going 21-1 and winning three titles, including this year's French Open. Overall, she's up to a 45-4 record in 2024 with five titles. There's a reason she's the world No. 1 one by a wide margin.

Turning just 23 years old in May, Swiatek already has five career major titles -- four at Roland-Garros -- but she's yet to lift the trophy at Wimbledon. Iga also elected to skip playing in any grass tournaments, so she'll have to adjust to the surface change on the fly.

But as her growing resume would suggest, it's probably only a matter of time before the Polish superstar has her name listed on Wimbledon's honor board of champions.

Although she hasn't demonstrated the same career dominance when playing on grass, part of that has been due to a lack of actual reps because of the quick turnaround from the French Open to Wimbledon. For most players that's less of an issue, but Swiatek's annual championship runs in Paris leave her little time to prepare for grass.

Despite this, she advanced to the Wimbledon quarterfinals for the first time in 2023, and most of her top competitors have yet to show consistency at this event, either. Compared to the shorter championship odds we've seen at other Grand Slams for Swiatek lately, this could be a good value to back Swiatek to earn her first title at the All England Club.

Elena Rybakina (+500)

The 2022 Wimbledon, Rybakina is one of the few contenders who has demonstrated some consistent play at this event, advancing to at least the round of 16 in each of the last three years. She also owns a 73% career win percentage on grass, making it one of her best surfaces.

However, Rybakina's health and fitness could be in question. After getting a win in Berlin, she retired in the following match due to abdominal pain and then withdrew from Eastbourne before playing a single match due to a "change in schedule."

These incidents might not normally move the needle much, but we also saw her pull out of Indian Wells and Rome due to illness this spring, and she expressed not being 100% following her quarterfinal loss at the French Open earlier this month.

Overall, Elena has still produced a 35-7 record this year and remains the world No. 4, so she's still managed to put up some stellar results. But whatever has been ailing her over the last several months makes her a risky bet to hold up over a fortnight.

Coco Gauff (+650)

Coco Gauff is looking for some Wimbledon redemption after a shocking first-round exit in 2023.

Although she's never made it to even the quarterfinals in four tries, she should be more equipped for a deep run after upping up her game in Grand Slams ever since. Following that disappointment, she won last year's US Open and carried that over into this season with semifinal appearances at the 2024 Australian Open and French Open.

She's now up to a career-high No. 2 in the world, which means she'll be the second seed at Wimbledon and avoid facing Swiatek unless they meet in the final. Considering Swiatek is 11-1 lifetime versus Gauff, any increased chance of dodging that meeting bodes well for the American.

Prior to this event, Gauff advanced to the semifinals in Berlin before losing a tight two-setter 7-5, 7-6(2) to fellow American and world No. 5 Jessica Pegula, which isn't a bad result for her grass tune-up tournament. She's 31-10 this calendar year and should be able to bounce back with a far better result at this year's Wimbledon.

Other Notables

Ons Jabeur (+1300) - A back-to-back Wimbledon finalist, the heartbreak of losing those finals has seemingly carried over into a mediocre 2024 campaign (14-12), but she did make it to this year's French Open quarterfinals. She retired from her last match in Berlin due to illness but seems to be in good spirits at Wimbledon.

Naomi Osaka (+1500) - Osaka very nearly pulled off a second-round upset over Swiatek at the French Open, and perhaps on another timeline she wins that match and the narrative is quite different. The four-time major champion hasn't competed at Wimbledon since 2019, and she's never made it past the third round. But the French Open was never a great event for her, either, so perhaps we're getting closer to seeing the former world No. 1 being a major title contender again.

Jessica Pegula (+1800) - After missing most of the clay season because of injury, Pegula is quickly finding her form after winning a title in Berlin. While she's never made it into the semifinals of a Grand Slam, she's a six-time major quarterfinalist, which includes making 2023 Wimbledon's quarters.

Mirra Andreeva (+2300) - Andreeva made her first breakthrough at a Grand Slam by getting to the semifinals at this year's French Open. Still just 17 years old, she advanced to the round of 16 at 2023 Wimbledon, so another deep run could be in the cards.

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