NFL

Will the Ravens' Win Total of 11.5 Prove to Be Too High?

Aidan McGrath
Aidan McGrath@ffaidanmcgrath
Will the Ravens' Win Total of 11.5 Prove to Be Too High?

The Baltimore Ravens were one of the best teams in the NFL during the 2024 season. Quarterback Lamar Jackson earned his second career MVP award for his outstanding play, and the team's defense coalesced into one of the most fearsome units we've seen in recent years. They finished the regular season with an NFL-best 13-4 record before falling to the eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship.

It's safe to say that expectations are high for the Ravens again in 2024. According to FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL win totals, the Ravens' win total is up at 11.5, tied for tops in the league. Only the Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers -- last year's two Super Bowl competitors -- can match Baltimore's 11.5-win line.

Does this squad have what it takes to finish with one of the best records in the NFL again in 2024, or will the brutal AFC North keep them from finishing with an elite regular season record?

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, and they may change after the article is published.

Baltimore Ravens 2024 Win Total Odds

Ravens Over/Under 11.5 Wins

  • Over: +132
  • Under: -162

Odds to Make the Playoffs: -265
Odds to Win the AFC North: +140 (1st)
Odds to Win the AFC Championship: +490 (2nd)
Super Bowl Odds: +950 (3rd)

Key Offseason Coaching Changes:

  • Zach Orr replacing Mike Macdonald at Defensive Coordinator

Why Baltimore Could Win Over 11.5 Games

  • Lamar Jackson Is an MVP-Caliber Player
  • Year 2 With Todd Monken at Offensive Coordinator
  • King Henry Can Revitalize the Run Game

Not many players win an MVP award and even fewer are capable of winning it multiple times. Lamar Jackson is one of those few players. The star quarterback is tied for the fifth-shortest NFL MVP odds in 2024 (+1400), making him one of the frontrunners.

Jackson spearheaded an elite offense in 2023 despite losing his top pass-catcher -- All-Pro tight end Mark Andrews -- midway through the season and despite not having a top-notch supporting cast around him. He's simply an offensive dynamo, finishing fourth in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (7.34) while leading the quarterback position in rushing yards (821) with a 54.1% rushing success rate.

The 2023 campaign was Jackson's first year with offensive coordinator Todd Monken. In 2024, we could see Jackson ascend to even greater heights as he and Monken grow together. Monken's offenses with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers got better with each successive year, but -- unfortunately for him -- couldn't keep pace with the team's rough defenses and turnover-prone quarterback play. His offenses helped steer the Georgia Bulldogs to back-to-back NCAA Championships in 2021 and 2022 and then immediately translated in his first year with Jackson back in the NFL.

In the years since Jackson's first MVP season, the Ravens' running backs have suffered season-ending injury after season-ending injury. The team hasn't produced a 1,000-yard rusher other than Jackson since that 2019 season, with injuries disastrously cutting short multiple promising seasons.

They're seeking to change that in 2024, signing running back Derrick Henry to right the ship for their backfield. Henry has led the NFL in carries in four of the last five seasons, compiling 7,209 rushing yards across those campaigns. The 2023 year was a down season for Henry, but it seems fair to chalk that up to playing on an abysmal Tennessee Titans offense. He could regain his status as the league's best rusher in 2024 on the Ravens' elite offense.

Based on FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL player specials, bettors are already keen on Henry for the 2024 season. He has -135 odds to exceed 10 touchdowns and -110 odds to break 1,000 rushing yards on the year. The King has +4500 odds to win NFL Offensive Player of the Year, as well, making him an interesting long shot.

Why Baltimore Could Win Under 11.5 Games

  • The Defense Could Fall Off
  • The Offense Could Be Fragile
  • 12 Wins Is a Lot of Wins

As excited as we are for the Ravens this season, they could struggle to recapture last year's success. For starters, their defense played at an absurd level throughout the 2023 season. They allowed the fewest points in the NFL (280) and the fewest yards per play (4.6 yards) while leading the league in turnovers created (31) and sacks (60).

Production that impressive can naturally regress closer to league average marks year over year. Even if Baltimore has another fantastic year on defense, it'll be hard for them to be that dominant for a second straight season -- especially after losing defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald to the Seattle Seahawks and after losing six key contributors to the defense in free agency.

Even if the defense stays elite, the team banked on getting MVP-caliber play from Jackson to sustain their offense last year. Other than adding Henry, the team did little to bolster a thin offensive depth chart this offseason. That means they'll be banking on Mark Andrews make a full recovery from his broken ankle while also needing Zay Flowers -- who saw a lot of his production come on manufactured plays -- develop into a legitimate WR1.

Rashod Bateman is currently in line to be their WR2 and has struggled to stay healthy since entering the NFL as a first-round pick in 2021. The team with arguably the worst injury luck in recent history is playing it pretty fast and loose with their skill-position depth chart this season.

Lastly, the margins that determine an NFL game are often razor-thin, meaning even just one thing going wrong can turn a 13-4 juggernaut into a 9-7 Wild Card competitor in a heartbeat. Going from an elite defense to just an above-average one could wildly affect the Ravens' final record. And with what should be -- going by 2024 win totals -- one of the hardest schedules in the league, the Ravens really don't have much room for error if they're seeking to surpass their current 11.5-win line.

Baltimore could be one of the NFL's top teams again and still fall short of 12 wins.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.