Will the Phillies Get to 90 Wins in 2024?

Skyler Carlin
Skyler Carlin@skyler_carlin
Will the Phillies Get to 90 Wins in 2024?

The Philadelphia Phillies were oh-so close to advancing to the World Series in 2023, losing to the Arizona Diamondbacks in seven games in the National League Championship Series.

It was an impressive 90-72 record posted by the Phillies last season, giving them the second-best record in the NL East behind the Atlanta Braves -- who they dispatched in four games in the National League Division Series.

Following a successful campaign a season ago, what is Philadelphia's win total set at for 2024, per the MLB win totals at FanDuel Sportsbook?

At the moment, the Philadelphia Phillies' win total is sitting at 89.5, with the over and under holding -110 odds.

Let's dig into what we can expect from the Phillies this year and which side of the win total should interest you.

All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published. nERD via numberFire. Projections via FanGraphs.

Phillies Win Total Odds

Phillies Over/Under 89.5 Wins

  • Over: -110
  • Under: -110

Why the Phillies Could Win Over 89.5 Games (-110)

Aside from losing Rhys Hoskins, the Phillies are running it back with essentially the same roster that guided them to a deep postseason run in 2023. Bryce Harper made the move to first base in Hoskins' absence a season ago, tallying a .206 isolated power (ISO) and a .384 weighted on-base average (wOBA) in 546 plate appearances.

Around Harper, the Phillies also have Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, J.T. Realmuto, Bryson Stott, Alec Bohm, and Nick Castellanos as regulars in the batting order. As a team, Philadelphia tallied the eighth-most homers (220), the sixth-best ISO (.182), and the sixth-best wOBA (.329) in 2023.

On the mound, the Phillies featured a talented duo of Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola. Wheeler inked a three-year, $126 million contract extension in the offseason while Nola received a seven-year, $172 million deal shortly after the 2023 campaign passed.

With Wheeler and Nola leading the charge, the starting pitchers for the Phillies combined to record the 13th-best strikeout rate (23.0%) and the seventh-best skill interactive earned runs average (SIERA) at 4.11. The bullpen -- with Jose Alvarado projected to lead the team in saves in 2024 by FanGraphs -- registered the sixth-best strikeout rate (25.4%) and the eighth-best SIERA (3.81) last year.

A combination of having a well-rounded lineup and a duo of Wheeler and Nola on the bump has the Phillies earning the sixth-best nERD score (0.91) on numberFire and the seventh-most wins (85) on FanGraphs. Seeing that the Phillies are tied for the sixth-shortest World Series odds (+1500) in 2024, they are expected to have plenty of success this season.

Why the Phillies Could Win Under 89.5 Games (-110)

History can sometimes be an indication of how certain teams will perform. Before the Phillies notched 90 wins in 2023, they went 11 consecutive seasons of winning fewer than 90 games.

Winning in the NL East is easier said than done in the regular season, especially with the Braves having -290 odds to win the NL East. The Braves have won 100-plus games in back-to-back seasons, and they are motivated to prove they are more than just a regular-season team after getting bounced by the Phillies in the playoffs last year.

Outside of Wheeler and Nola, Philadelphia's rotation possesses a few question marks. Can Ranger Suarez be a reliable starter again? Will Cristopher Sanchez build off a solid 2023 campaign?

Along with those question marks, the Miami Marlins showed improvements in 2023, and the New York Mets are out to prove the doubters wrong following a disappointing result in the division last season. While I would lean the over for Philadelphia's win total for the upcoming season, injuries and other factors could lead to fewer than 90 wins for the 12th time in the last 13 years.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.