Will the Lions Win At Least 11 Games in 2024?

Skyler Carlin
Skyler Carlin@skyler_carlin
Will the Lions Win At Least 11 Games in 2024?

The Detroit Lions entered the 2023-24 campaign with lofty expectations in head coach Dan Campbell's third year at the helm. Following a six-year playoff drought -- and a 22-year drought of winning a postseason contest -- the Lions would advance to the NFC Championship Round before losing to the San Francisco 49ers a season ago.

After going 12-5 in the regular season and getting eliminated from the playoffs despite holding a 24-7 lead over San Fran at halftime in the conference title game, Detroit is expected to have plenty of success again in 2024-25. Will the Lions live up to the hype again next season? Or will Detroit's success from last season prove to be the team's peak?

Let's dive into FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL win totals and discuss the reasons why the Lions could go over or under their projected win total in 2024.

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, and they may change after the article is published.

Detroit Lions 2024 Win Total Odds

Detroit Lions Over/Under 10.5 Wins

  • Over: -115
  • Under: -105

Odds to Make the Playoffs: -250
Odds to Win the NFC North: +145
Odds to Win the NFC: +600
Super Bowl Odds: +1300 (tied 4th-best)

Key Offseason Coaching Changes:

  • Hired Terrell Williams as defensive line coach/run game coordinator
  • Hired Deshea Townsend as cornerback coach/pass game coordinator

Why Lions Could Win Over 10.5 Games

  • Ben Johnson remains the offensive coordinator
  • Jahmyr Gibbs is entering his sophomore campaign
  • The secondary should be much-improved

Under offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, quarterback Jared Goff put together one of the best years of his career in 2023-24, completing a career-high 67.3% of his passes for 4,575 yards, 30 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. Johnson has been one of the most coveted head coach candidates in recent years, but he elected to remain with the Lions entering the upcoming campaign.

In the two years with Johnson calling plays, Detroit has finished top-five in total yards and points on the offensive side of the ball. Bringing back Johnson -- and signing Goff to a long-term extension -- are major positives for the Lions in their quest to secure the franchise's first Super Bowl victory.

Along with the partnership of Johnson and Goff staying intact, fans of the Lions should expect an expanded role for second-year running back Jahmyr Gibbs. Even though Gibbs began his rookie year with an inconsistent role in Detroit's offense, he would finish with 1,261 scrimmage yards and 11 total touchdowns on 234 total touches.

Gibbs proved to be one of the most dynamic backs in the NFL rather quickly, forming a dominant one-two punch with David Montgomery. Having the version of Gibbs we saw in the latter part of last season alongside the likes of Montgomery, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Sam LaPorta could be a scary sight for opposing defenses.

According to Next Gen Stats, Detroit's defense finished the 2023-24 season allowing the third-most expected points added per drop back (0.05) and ranked 26th in passing success rate (53.6%). Despite adding rookie Brian Branch to the mix last year, the secondary of the Lions was largely inconsistent.

Throughout the offseason, Detroit has made a concerted effort to rectify their secondary woes from a season ago by adding Carlton Davis, Terrion Arnold, and Amik Robertson via the draft, free agency, or trade. Additionally, the Lions bolstered their defensive front alongside Aidan Hutchinson by bringing in Marcus Davenport and DJ Reader in free agency.

With defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn also remaining with the team in 2024-25, the Lions are hoping both sides of the ball take another step forward.

Why Lions Could Win Under 10.5 Games

  • What if last season was the best version of the Lions we'll see under Campbell?
  • The lack of a reliable No. 2 wide receiver
  • Can the defense drastically improve against the pass?

Before last season, the Lions had gone eight straight seasons of winning nine or fewer games -- including five years of having a losing record. Even though this appears to be a much different team than those previous squads, the NFL is always unpredictable -- seemingly unless your Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs -- and a variety of occurrences can derail a team's season.

There have been plenty of teams over the years who appear to be built for the long term, only for them to fall short after experiencing success the prior season. It's hard to envision a scenario where the Lions aren't a contender again in 2024-25, but crazier things have happened.

Josh Reynolds was Detroit's No. 2 wideout last season, finishing with 40 receptions for 608 yards and five touchdowns in the regular season. Following a rough showing in the postseason defeat to the 49ers where he dropped a couple of passes in crucial moments, Reynolds has since joined the Denver Broncos.

With Reynolds no longer on the roster, the Lions will need one of Jameson Williams, Kalif Raymond, and/or Donovan Peoples-Jones to step up at the receiver position. Having a reliable pass-catching weapon like St. Brown is fantastic, but Detroit's offense will need more firepower to beat the best teams in the NFC.

Lastly, the defense was the definitive weak link of the team last year, allowing the 10th-most points per game (23.2). While Detroit boasts an efficient offense, it can be tough to rely on your offense to win shootouts most weeks.

Once again, the Lions have made some notable additions on defense in hopes to drastically improve on that side of the ball. At the same time, changes to the coaching staff and personnel may not be enough to transform the defense into a unit that can help Detroit maintain the level of success they saw in 2023-24.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.