Will Joey Chestnut or Miki Sudo’s Hot Dog Record Be Broken? Betting Odds and Predictions

Joey Chestnut and Miki Sudo aren’t just competitive eaters, they are reigning royalty of the Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest. With more Mustard Belts between them than most people have hot dogs in a year, they’ve cemented themselves as household names.

Joey Chestnut set the bar in 2021 when he inhaled 76 hot dogs in 10 minutes -- a record he hasn’t quite matched since but one that looms large over the competition.

On the women’s side, Miki Sudo made history last year by downing 51 hot dogs in 10 minutes, setting a new women’s world record.

This year, the iconic Coney Island showdown returns, and both of these contestants are back to do what they do best: eat hot dogs at an alarming rate.

FanDuel Sportsbook in Canada -- as well as in select U.S. states -- currently allows users to bet on the competition, including whether or not these records will be broken. Let's dish out the Hot Dog Eating Contest betting odds and predictions for the 2025 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest

Will Miki Sudo’s Hot Dog Eating Record be Broken?

In the women’s division, Miki Sudo's 51-dog total hasn't even been neared by rivals in recent years.

Mayoi Ebihara came the closest, hitting 37 hot dogs in 2024, but she is not currently listed to compete this year. That leaves Michelle Lesco as Sudo’s “top” competition: Lesco’s odds to win are currently set at +1600, and her best performance in the last five years was 30.75 dogs in 2021.

So, the more compelling question is, will Miki Sudo break her own record this year?

Sudo’s 2024 performance of 51 dogs was legendary, but the data suggests it may have been an outlier. Over the past decade, Sudo has averaged just shy of 40 hot dogs per contest. Her second-best was 48.5 in 2020, and she hasn’t come within five dogs of that number in any other year.

Her results have fluctuated significantly, with a massive 11.5-dog jump from 2023 to 2024. That kind of volatility makes it hard to predict another peak.

Here’s a snapshot of her last 10 contests:

• 2024 - 51 (career-high)
• 2023 - 39.5
• 2022 - 40
• 2021 - Sudo did not compete
• 2020 - 48.5
• 2019 - 31
• 2018 - 37
• 2017 - 41
• 2016 - 38.5
• 2015 - 38
• 2014 – 34

With Ebihara out and Lesco unlikely to apply significant pressure, Sudo may not have the motivation to push past her limits.

Prediction:

• Will Miki Sudo’s Record of 51 Hot Dogs Eaten Be Broken?: No (-430)
• Miki Sudo – Total Hotdogs Eaten: Under 46.5 (-112)

Will Joey Chestnut’s Hot Dog Eating Record Be Broken?

Joey Chestnut is the undisputed king of competitive eating, ranked No. 1 by Major League Eating. His stiffest competition is likely Patrick "Deep Dish" Bertoletti, who won the 2024 contest in Chestnut’s absence with a career-high 58 hot dogs. This is a solid effort, but it's still 18 dogs short of Chestnut’s record.

So, once again, the more interesting question here is likely, will Joey Chestnut break his own record?

Here’s a look at his last 10 contests:

• 2024 - Chestnut didn’t compete
• 2023 - 62
• 2022 - 63
• 2021 - 76 (career-high)
• 2020 - 75
• 2019 - 71
• 2018 - 74
• 2017 - 72
• 2016 - 70
• 2015 - 60 (didn't win)
• 2014 - 61

Chestnut has averaged an impressive 68.4 hot dogs over the past decade, but his recent numbers have cooled off. After his record-breaking year in 2021, he’s housed 63 and 62 frankfurters in the two years since.

He skipped 2024 due to a sponsorship conflict but has kept his jaw and stomach in shape by dominating other food challenges, including eating 21 pounds of shrimp cocktail, 15 pounds of bagels with cream cheese, 15.75 pounds of smoked bologna.

I can see Deep Dish giving Chestnut a bit of a push in competition. But based on Chestnut’s recent numbers, I don’t expect him to return to his record-setting form.

Even with the over/under set at 71.5, that line feels a little too ambitious for me to stomach.

Prediction:

• Will Joey Chestnut's Record of 76 Hot Dogs Eaten be Broken?: No (-430)
• Joey Chestnut – Total Hotdogs Eaten: Under 71.5 (-112)

Other 2025 Nathan’s Hot Dog Contest Odds

There are a number of special betting markets currently available for FanDuel customers in Ontario and select U.S. states. Take a look at some below, and sign in to FanDuel Sportsbook to see all options in your area.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.