Will James Cook Provide Value for Fantasy Football in 2024?

As a second-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, James Cook came into the NFL with high expectations. According to FantasyPros' average draft position (ADP), Cook was drafted RB39 in 2022 and finished as RB44.

Cook's breakout came in 2023, finishing as RB11 after carrying an RB24 ADP. Cook is consistently making headlines surrounding season-long 2024 fantasy football. He's being labeled as a breakout with top-five potential.

We've already seen the breakout with the third-year back finishing over 10 spots better than his ADP last year. We can take time to address his ceiling, though.

How good can Cook be in the 2024 season? Is he carrying good value considering his current ADP? Here's Cook's fantasy outlook.

James Cook Fantasy Football Outlook

Glaring Lack of Touchdowns

With Devin Singletary out of the fold entering 2023, Cook firmly established himself as RB1 in the Buffalo Bills' offense.

He took his touch total from 110 to 281. His rushing attempts leaped through the roof, going from 89 to 237. It certainly helped his case that the Bills boosted their rushing attempts to the 3rd-most in football last season compared to the 16th-most in 2022.

As previously mentioned, Cook would finish 13 spots over his ADP. Frankly, he could have been a lot better in this offense with 16.5 touches per game. What was the main problem?

Josh Allen ate up rushing touchdowns, recording 15 to Cook's 2. Despite the huge difference in numbers, the two were actually dead even at 2.0 red zone rushing attempts per game paired with a 30.9% red zone attempt share.

However, Allen was consistently awarded with rushes within the five-yard line, taking 43.8% of the team's attempts within the five. Cook, on the other hand, had only 12.5% of the carries in the same category.

Getting enough opportunities to score will be a constant concern for Cook. He had an 11.1% red zone target share in 2023, which adds some hope for him finding the red zone. This helped him score the bulk of his touchdowns in 2023, reaching six receiving tuddies to two rushing.

It was still a successful season for Cook, for he reached a career-high 1,567 scrimmage yards -- the third-highest mark among running backs. Imagine if Cook also had a healthy number of touchdowns, though; he'd be highly touted as the golden ticket for 2024 fantasy drafts.

Another Thorn in Cook's Side?

Now that we've addressed his 2023 season, let's look at Cook's chances of exceeding expectations once again in 2024.

His ADP currently sits at RB14. Last year's marks as RB11 points to Cook holding good value. However, we can't overlook the addition of fourth-round rookie Ray Davis.

The rookie from Kentucky is drawing interest as a handcuff running back. Latavius Murray was Cook's main competition in the backfield last season. While it wasn't much of a challenge considering Murray's 79 carries on the season, he still took 34.4% of the team's attempts within the five-yard line.

As a 5-foot-8, 220-pound bowling ball, Davis looks poised to take over Murray's 2023 role. Scouting reports highlighted his physicality and strength. Davis finished the 2023 season with the 9th-most missed tackles forced and the 11th-most yards after contact per attempt.

This rookie is screaming goal-line back, backed by his 21 touchdowns in collegiate play last season. Cook could be on the short end of the stick once again when it comes to carries within the five.

Allen still remains one of the league's best rushing threats on the goal line, as well. Between Allen and Davis, rushing touchdowns will likely remain a problem for Cook.

James Cook Fantasy Football Projection

When it comes to numberFire's fantasy football projections, Cook is in line to be RB14 -- also where his ADP stands.

His projected stat line for 17 games is 1,078 rushing yards, 413 receiving yards, 7 rushing touchdowns, and 3 receiving touchdowns. The 1,491 scrimmage yards isn't far off from last season's 1,567. Most importantly, the grand total of 10 touchdowns would be a jump from 2023's 8 tuddies.

The projections are expecting a notable leap in Cook's rushing touchdowns. This is the biggest takeaway from the projections. Much of this could depend on Davis, who is forecasted for only 64 carries and 2 touchdowns.

Murray finished with 4 touchdowns while getting over 30.0% of the team's carries within the five-yard line. If Davis falls into a similar role, his touchdown total will probably be higher, harming Cook's numbers.

Allen is also projected 9 rushing touchdowns versus 15 in 2023. The touchdown projections across the board are falling in Cook's favor, pointing to top-five upside.

The usage is certainly there thanks to Cook's healthy workload. It only increased when offensive coordinator Joe Brady took over in Week 11 last season.

Before Brady, Cook logged 14.4 touches per game. Over the final nine games with Brady as OC, his usage spiked to 20.1 touches per contest.

This kind of jump over a decent span cannot be totally ignored. Brady could continue to push the agenda for Cook to get the ball. If this workload rolls into 2024, 20.1 touches per game is 3.0 more than numberFire's projections. This would give Cook 51 more touches on the season.

Ultimately, Cook's projections are suggesting decent value as it's carrying the same number as his RB14 ADP. There isn't much to lose here. We know Cook is going to get a big workload, and if his touchdown numbers jump -- as numberFire suggests -- he would be on his way to becoming one of fantasy football's premier backs.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.