UFC Vegas 106 Best Bets and Props: Burns vs. Morales

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Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight.

Without further delay, here are a few best bets from UFC Vegas 106: Burns vs. Morales, taking place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas on Saturday.

UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales Betting Picks

Jared Gordon vs. Thiago Moises

Moises to Win (-102)

My model has always really liked high-volume striker Jared Gordon, so I took this result pretty seriously.

The 36-year-old boxer from Queens has a +1.78 striking success rate (SSR) to Thiago Moises' -1.62 SSR. That's usually a tough gap to overcome in the model, but Moises has a lot moving in his direction, too.

Now training with Brazil's vaunted Fighting Nerds gym, Moises should be able to grapple as he did in his last bout. He's attempted 3.83 takedowns per 15 minutes, and Gordon -- a former featherweight -- hasn't always had the most surefire takedown defense (62%) in this 155-pound weight class.

Plus, in terms of power, Moises' 0.72 KD% towers over Gordon's 0.10% mark.

Shockingly, I've got Moises 61.7% likely to win this bout. Gordon's upside seems to be skirting around the cage for a decision when the Brazilian has multiple paths to victory.

Dustin Stoltzfus vs. Nursulton Ruziboev

Stoltzfus to Win (+250)
Stoltzfus by Points (+650)

I didn't need a model result to deem Dustin Stoltzfus as undervalued here.

Stoltzfus' well-rounded game seems to always get minimal respect in betting markets. He's cashed all four UFC-affiliated wins as an underdog, and he can do so again this week against Nursulton Ruziboev.

Ruziboev, having fought as low as 170 pounds in UFC, hasn't defended a takedown yet in four UFC appearances. His slender frame isn't really built to do so when Stoltzfus' wrestling is both high-volume (5.63 takedown attempts per 15) and efficient (41% accuracy).

Plus, it's not like Ruziboev has a prolonged rate of success on the feet, either. His -1.03 SSR pales in comparison to Stoltzfus' +0.18 despite facing questionable competition. "Black" has three UFC wins, and those fighters have a combined 7-6 UFC record.

Ruziboev's regional footage is littered with time on his back, and that was his issue in a lone UFC loss to Joaquin Buckley. Since Stoltzfus can wrestle, I'll back the 'dog to coast out a ton of this fight in top position.

Sodiq Yusuff vs. Mairon Santos

Yusuff to Win (+116)

This wasn't a tough choice.

Sodiq Yusuff has beaten 5 multi-time UFC winners in 10 appearances. All three of his losses have come to fighters ranked as recently as 2024. He really only loses to the best of the best, which might be forgotten because he's been knocked down three times in two consecutive setbacks.

Meanwhile, Mairon Santos just got the gift of a lifetime to find himself in Yusuff's bracket. Santos won a split decision over Francis Marshall (2-3 UFC) that was one of 2025's most questionable results to this point. The early returns on his +1.77 SSR at the entry level are somewhat promising, but it's not convincing enough.

At just 24, Santos didn't have answers for Marshall's grappling, and Yusuff outlanded both Edson Barboza and Arnold Allen at distance inside featherweight's top 10. Laying chalk to assume the prospect wins the distance battle against "Super" Sodiq is asinine.

This is another play I couldn't model, but Yusuff should be favored to win this fight. Recency bias is quite the phenomenon.

Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales

Morales Wins After Round 2 (-147)

There's usually an agenda at hand when the main event has the card's largest favorite, and that is the case here.

Welterweight's interesting title picture took another turn with Jack Della Maddalena's win at UFC 315, and top prospect Michael Morales is hoping to throw his hat in the ring by matching JDM's result against Gilbert Burns from 2024.

At just 25, Morales already has five dominant UFC wins. He embarrassed Neil Magny (22-12 UFC) for a quick, first-round finish in his last appearance. The Ecuadorian combines a +2.00 SSR with a 92% takedown D, and he showed how imposing he can be from top position if he chooses to wrestle.

"Durinho" Burns is flailing at 38 on the other side. He's lost three in a row, and the concerns of being undersized -- having fought as low as 145 pounds in UFC -- seem to get magnified each fight. Burns let up seven takedowns to Sean Brady and got smoked for a +40 striking differential by Della Maddalena.

While Burns' losses have come exclusively in the division's top five, Morales' well-rounded skillset is a worthy favorite in this spot. I've modeled him 68.3% likely to win a fight that goes the full five-round distance 51.8% of the time.

The underdog hasn't lost a fight before the start of Round 3 since July 2018. I'm willing to combine these angles in this UFC Same Game Parlay, pairing Morales Moneyline (-950) with Fight Starts Round 3 (-190) to concoct this line.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.