UConn vs Michigan State College Basketball Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for NCAA Tournament Sweet 16

A spot in the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament will go to either the No. 2 UConn Huskies (31-5) or the No. 3 Michigan State Spartans (27-7) when the teams square off in the Sweet 16. This contest tips off at 9:45 p.m. ET on Friday.

Before you place your bet on this game at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the NCAA basketball odds and spreads you need to know.

UConn vs. Michigan State Game Info and Odds

• Game day: Friday, March 27, 2026
• Game time: 9:45 p.m. ET
• TV channel: CBS
• Location: Washington D.C.
• Arena: Capital One Arena

UConn vs. Michigan State Picks and Prediction

All college basketball win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: UConn win (50.5%)

If you are planning on making a wager on UConn-Michigan State contest (in which UConn is a 1.5-point favorite and the total is set at 136.5 points), keep reading for some betting trends and insights for Friday's game.

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UConn vs. Michigan State: ATS Betting Stats and Trends

• UConn has put together a 13-23-0 ATS record so far this year.
• Michigan State has put together a 19-15-0 ATS record so far this year.
• UConn (13-23) covers a lower percentage of games when it is favored by 1.5 points or more this season (36.1%) than Michigan State (4-2) does as a 1.5+-point underdog (66.7%).
• The Huskies have done a better job covering the spread when playing on the road (5-6-0) than they have in home games (4-13-0).
• The Spartans' winning percentage against the spread at home is .471 (8-9-0). On the road, it is .600 (6-4-0).

UConn vs. Michigan State: Moneyline Betting Stats

• UConn has been victorious in 26, or 83.9%, of the 31 contests it has been chosen as moneyline favorites in this season.
• This season, the Huskies have come away with a win 26 times in 30 chances when named as a favorite of at least -128 or better on the moneyline.
• Michigan State has compiled a 2-4 record in games it was listed as the moneyline underdog (winning 33.3% of those games).
• When playing as a moneyline underdog with odds of +106 or longer, the Spartans have a 2-3 record (winning 40% of their games).
• UConn has an implied victory probability of 56.1% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.

UConn vs. Michigan State Head-to-Head Comparison

• Offensively, UConn was the 90th-ranked team in college basketball (77 points per game) last season. Defensively, it was 56th (68 points allowed per game).
• On the glass, UConn was 111th in the nation in rebounds (33.1 per game) last year. It was second-best in rebounds allowed (25.9 per game).
• With 17.3 assists per game, UConn was eighth-best in college basketball last season.
• In terms of turnovers, UConn was 71st in the nation in committing them (10 per game) last season. It was 317th in forcing them (9.8 per game).
• Last year Michigan State scored 77.7 points per game (78th-ranked in college basketball) and ceded 67.1 points per contest (44th-ranked).
• Michigan State allowed 28.2 rebounds per game last season (28th-ranked in college basketball), but it shined by averaging 36.7 rebounds per contest (10th-best).
• Michigan State tallied plenty of assists last year, ranking 24th-best in college basketball with 16.5 per game.
• Last year Michigan State committed 10.7 turnovers per game (135th-ranked in college basketball) and forced 10.4 turnovers per contest (265th-ranked).

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