UConn vs Michigan State College Basketball Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for NCAA Tournament Sweet 16

A Sweet 16 NCAA Tournament matchup features the No. 2 UConn Huskies (31-5) and No. 3 Michigan State Spartans (27-7) to determine which of the squads is heading to the East regional final when it tips off on Friday at Capital One Arena, beginning at 9:45 p.m. ET, airing on CBS.

Before you place your bet on this matchup at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the NCAA basketball odds and spreads you need to know.

UConn vs. Michigan State Game Info and Odds

• Game day: Friday, March 27, 2026
• Game time: 9:45 p.m. ET
• TV channel: CBS
• Location: Washington D.C.
• Arena: Capital One Arena

UConn vs. Michigan State Picks and Prediction

All college basketball win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: UConn win (50.5%)

UConn is a 1.5-point favorite against Michigan State on Friday and the total has been set at 134.5 points. Below are some betting insights and trends before you decide to wager on the contest.

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UConn vs. Michigan State: ATS Betting Stats and Trends

• UConn has won 13 games against the spread this season, while failing to cover 23 times.
• Michigan State has compiled a 19-15-0 ATS record so far this season.
• UConn (13-23) covers a lower percentage of games when it is favored by 1.5 points or more this season (36.1%) than Michigan State (4-2) does as a 1.5+-point underdog (66.7%).
• The Huskies have done a better job covering the spread in away games (5-6-0) than they have in home games (4-13-0).
• The Spartans' winning percentage against the spread at home is .471 (8-9-0). Away, it is .600 (6-4-0).

UConn vs. Michigan State: Moneyline Betting Stats

• UConn has been chosen as the moneyline favorite in 31 games this year and has walked away with the win 26 times (83.9%) in those games.
• The Huskies have a win-loss record of 26-5 when favored by -120 or better by bookmakers this year.
• Michigan State is 2-4 in games it was the underdog on the moneyline (winning 33.3% of those games).
• The Spartans have a 2-3 record (winning 40% of their games) when they have played as a moneyline underdog of +100 or longer.
• Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that UConn has a 54.5% chance of pulling out a win.

UConn vs. Michigan State Head-to-Head Comparison

• UConn is outscoring opponents by 12.4 points per game with a +448 scoring differential overall. It puts up 77.5 points per game (135th in college basketball) and gives up 65.1 per contest (11th in college basketball).
• Tarris Reed Jr. is 384th in the country with a team-leading 14.2 points per game.
• Michigan State's +370 scoring differential (outscoring opponents by 10.9 points per game) is a result of putting up 79.3 points per game (94th in college basketball) while giving up 68.4 per contest (42nd in college basketball).
• Jeremy Fears Jr. is ranked 275th in college basketball with a team-leading 15.3 points per game.
• The Huskies record 33.4 rebounds per game (98th in college basketball) while conceding 27.3 per contest to their opponents. They outrebound opponents by 6.1 boards per game.
• Reed tops the team with 8.9 rebounds per game (39th in college basketball action).
• The Spartans grab 36.7 rebounds per game (16th in college basketball) while allowing 25.4 per contest to opponents. They outrebound opponents by 11.3 boards per game.
• Jaxon Kohler leads the team with 9.0 rebounds per game (31st in college basketball).
• UConn records 103.3 points per 100 possessions (53rd in college basketball), while giving up 86.7 points per 100 possessions (18th in college basketball).
• The Spartans rank 36th in college basketball averaging 105.0 points per 100 possessions on offense, and defensively are 61st, allowing 90.6 points per 100 possessions.

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