Today's Best Bets for NFL Week 14

Week 14 in the NFL is the last round of byes of the year. We're loaded up with 16 games a week from here on.

Not many marquee, standings-deciding matchups await us Sunday. That was reserved for Thursday between the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions -- and was as advertised.

Where can we find betting value as we know these teams like the back of our hand(s) at this point?

Additionally, don't forget to check out FanDuel Research's NFL projections to see what numberFire's model expects from each player across key statistical categories.

Which value remains on the board in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds? Let's check it out.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Today's Best NFL Betting Picks

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers

Browns +6.5 (-105)
Browns Moneyline (+245)

Mike Tomlin is historically profitable as an underdog -- especially inside the AFC North. This is the exact spot you want to fade him, though.

According to Action Network's Evan Abrams, Tomlin is 10-25 against the spread (ATS) as a favorite of at least 4.0 points. That's easily the least profitable coach in that situation in that time frame.

Why is it? Well, it could be inconsistent quarterback play, which the Pittsburgh Steelers might not be entirely rid of quite yet. Russell Wilson tossed 414 yards on the Cincinnati Bengals outmatched D last week, but he's also fallen below the league average of expected points added per drop back (EPA/db) in three of his seven starts -- including against these Cleveland Browns in a blizzard two weeks ago.

Cleveland is an entirely different team with Jameis Winston at the helm. We saw that as Winston hung to a one-possession game in Denver last week and posted a superb -0.12 EPA/db when considering he handed 14 points to the enemy team.

High-variance quarterbacks exist to be bet at lofty spreads. Winston and this rejuvenated squad can absolutely play spoiler against a Pittsburgh team that's vastly overperformed in one-score games this season (7-2 record).

Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings

Justin Jefferson Over 83.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Bijan Robinson Anytime Touchdown (-110)

Falling short of the 100-yard mark as an NFL wide receiver in a so-so passing offense is a totally normal thing to do. That's unless your name is Justin Jefferson.

Jefferson would officially hold the longest streak of his career without seeing the century mark (five games) if he's unable to get there against the Atlanta Falcons this weekend. Atlanta presents a great opportunity to get back on track as numberFire's ninth-worst schedule-adjusted pass defense, though.

The star wideout's opportunity has certainly diminished a bit in the past four games, which coincides with T.J. Hockenson's return to this deep group of Minnesota Vikings pass-catchers. The recent box scores haven't really shown Jefferson's team-best target share in this time (24.8%) due to inefficient or uncatchable balls.

Atlanta is tied for the lowest pressure rate in the NFL (27%), so I'm expecting Sam Darnold to be comfortable and get the ball back in the hands of his best playmaker. FanDuel Research's Week 14 NFL DFS projections have Jettas projected for 89.3 receiving yards in this one.

On the other side of this one, I'm looking at a player who also deserves better in a column.

Bijan Robinson has been absolutely chowing of late. He's posted 117.4 scrimmage yards per game in the last four games, but he's scored just a single time. End-zone issues aren't a new development for the former top-10 pick.

However, unlike the Arthur Smith era, the opportunity is there. Robinson has received 60.0% of the Falcons' red zone rushes in this stretch.

Bijan has faced consecutive top-five rush defenses, and the Vikings are no different. He still should be scoring more than he has, and our projections agree. They forecast 0.66 total touchdown in a game with a sizable 46.5-point total.

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins

Dolphins Over 26.5 Points (-108)

I joined Jim Sannes on Covering the Spread to preview Week 14 NFL props, and we spoke about buying into improving defenses. The New York Jets aren't one of those.

New York canned Robert Saleh, one of the league's better defensive minds, after Week 5, and the drop has been dramatic. The Planes were 6th in the NFL in Offensive Net Expected Points (NEP) per play allowed (-0.06) before getting rid of him, and they've dropped to 29th in that category (0.16) under Jeff Ulbrich.

Therefore, I wanted to play the Miami Dolphins team total here on extended rest in a spot they've crushed since Tua Tagovailoa returned from injury. Miami has posted at least 27 points in all three home games since their signal-caller returned. They've scored 27-plus at Hard Rock in 9 of their last 14 games that Tua finished.

I'm not exactly sure how a talented Jets attack keeps pace with Breece Hall (hip) doubtful, but the Fins' offense is a solid wager.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.