Timberwolves vs. Suns: Betting Picks and Prediction for Game 3

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Timberwolves vs. Suns: Betting Picks and Prediction for Game 3

The Minnesota Timberwolves take a 2-0 series lead to the road for their Game 3 bout with the Phoenix Suns.

Minnesota won both home games comfortably by scores of 120-95 and 105-93 despite dropping all three regular season matchups with Phoenix.

The Timberwolves now boast -480 odds to win the series, with the Suns sitting at +350 underdogs on FanDuel Sportsbook. A quick look at the series spread odds shows Minnesota favored by 2.5 games. Phoenix +2.5 games is -120.

Minnesota is now +650 to win the Western Conference. Phoenix is +3300 to win the West.

Let's dive into the odds and break down the matchup for Timberwolves-Suns Game 3.

All NBA odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NBA Playoffs Betting

Timberwolves-Suns Betting Odds

Date and Time: April 26th at 10:30 p.m. ET

Spread: Suns -4.5 (-114)

Total: 208.5

Moneyline:

Timberwolves: +176
Suns: -210

Timberwolves vs. Suns Advanced Stats Breakdown

nERD via numberFire. Adjusted offensive/defensive ratings and pace via DunksAndThrees.

Minnesota Timberwolves:
- nERD: 70.9 (3rd)
- Adjusted Offensive Rating: 115.0 (17th)
- Adjusted Defensive Rating: 109.9 (1st)
- Pace: 97.7 (22nd)
- Against-the-Spread Record: 40-41-1
Phoenix Suns:
- nERD: 59.2 (9th)
- Adjusted Offensive Rating: 117.3 (9th)
- Adjusted Defensive Rating: 114.2 (14th)
- Pace: 98.8 (15th)
- Against-the-Spread Record: 35-45-2

Timberwolves vs. Suns Best Bet

Timberwolves +4.5 (-106)

I don't want to overreact to two games. We know how quickly things can change in a seven-game series when home venues shift; just ask the Cleveland Cavaliers.

But, it's hard not to like Minnesota at least keeping it within four tonight.

The Wolves dominated the Suns in the second half of both games this series, outscoring them by 15 and 13, respectively. Their top-rated defense has held Phoenix to 95 and 93 points, keying in on the Suns' Big Three.

Though Kevin Durant went for 31 points in Game 1, he was a non factor in Game 2, finishing with just 18. His -24 plus/minus tied Devin Booker for the worst on the team.

Booker doesn't even have a strong Game 1 to fall back on. The Wolves have held him to 38 points on 11-of-29 shooting between the first two games.

Bradley Beal has fared even worse, scoring a combined 29 points on 12-of-27 shooting.

Meanwhile, Minnesota's shown they can win in different ways.

In Game 1, they dominated the glass (52-28) and got 33 points from Anthony Edwards. On top of that, they shot 37.5% from three.

But in Game 2, Ant only had 15 points on 3-of-12 shooting. They also lost the rebounding battle and shot worse from three than the Suns.

It didn't matter. The Wolves forced 19 Phoenix turnovers and got 25 points from Jaden McDaniels. They took the lead for good with 5:49 left in the third quarter.

In total, Minnesota won six of eight quarters at home. They quietly had the fourth-best road record in the NBA this season, while the Suns had a good-not-great 25-16 mark at home. That bodes well for their chances of covering tonight.

numberFire's model has Phoenix winning this one by just 1.6 points -- well within the 4.5-point spread. I'll back the model here and trust the Wolves to continue their strong play from Games 1 and 2.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.