Thursday Night Football Preview: Can The Saints Survive at Home?

The Jacksonville Jaguars (4-2) will visit the New Orleans Saints (3-3) for Week 7's edition of Thursday Night Football.

Potential injuries leave quite a few question marks for these teams' game plans, but a close spread should make this an interesting competition nonetheless. The game kicks off at 8:15 p.m. EST and can be streamed on Prime Video.

The Jaguars come into tonight with a steady lead in the AFC South. They fell, as expected, to a top-ranked Kansas City Chiefs team and sacrificed a game against the Houston Texans -- but they are in the midst of a three-game winning streak, including a victory against the Buffalo Bills (second-ranked team, according to numberFire's nERD-based power rankings).

A win tonight would not only hoist them in the AFC South standings but also give them a great chance at surpassing their preseason win total projection of 9.5. Following Week 7, only two teams out of the Jags' 11 remaining opponents are ranked above them in numberFire's power rankings, so good things could be on the horizon for Jacksonville fans.

The Saints, meanwhile, sit in an NFC South that is anyone's for the taking (except the Carolina Panthers). Despite losing as many as they have won, the Saints’ preseason win total has stood pat at 9.5 – the highest win total in their division. This, in part, could be due to a great defensive bid thus far -- New Orleans has given up 20-plus points just once this season -- but has much more to due with their undemanding strength of schedule, which is rated as the second-easiest in the league

New Orleans will have to capitalize on the cushier matchups, one of which they could see tonight if Trevor Lawrence is ruled out for the Jaguars.

Jaguars at Saints Week 7 Betting Odds: Spread, Total, and Moneyline

• Spread: Saints -2.0 (-112)
• Total: 39.5
• Moneyline:
  • Saints: -126
  • Jaguars: +108

Jaguars at Saints Week 7 Matchup Analysis

The game spread has seen some movement during the week, but the Saints have remained the slight favorites throughout.

On paper, Jacksonville is the better team, but a home game and curt injury report for the Saints (in comparison to their competition) have the market giving New Orleans the edge.

According to numberFire’s nERD-based power rankings, the Jaguars are the 9th-best team in the league while the Saints trail behind in the 15th spot.

Both teams boast top-10 defenses – the Jaguars' D ranks third in the league, while the Saints rank eighth, which helps explain the low game total.

We can see a large discrepancy for Jacksonville on the defensive end. They are allowing only 75.3 rush yards per game (third-fewest) but are giving up a towering 270.3 passing yards per game (second-most). This means that Alvin Kamara, who returned from suspension in Week 4 and has given the Saints a much-needed boost on offense, could be placated in the backfield.

To make up for this, Derek Carr will have to step up to the plate and see improvements from his 23rd-ranked Passing Success Rate and 21st-ranked Passing NEP per drop back. While it’s hard to predict the output of Carr’s night, we can rest assured knowing he will at least see plenty of opportunity to exploit the Jaguars’ tendency to give up major air yardage.

Look for Carr to get Chris Olave and Michael Thomas going early on the receiving end. Kamara could also see action in the passing game given his skillset.

The Jaguars find themself in a tricky spot going into tonight -- Trevor Lawrence left last Sunday's game with a knee injury and finds himself marked as questionable on the injury report. Lawrence failed to practice on Monday and was limited in the days following. As of Thursday morning, reports suggest Lawrence is trending towards playing, but the quick turnaround could result in a less-than-100% Lawrence.

Lawrence has yet to miss an NFL start, so it's unforeseen what this Jaguars team looks like without him at the helm. And, beyond the uncertainties at the QB1 position, Jacksonville should have a tough time getting around a legit Saints defense -- New Orleans is allowing 182.0 pass yards per game (fifth-fewest) and 96.3 rush yards per game (ninth-fewest).

The Jags have some exciting offensive players such as Calvin Ridley and Travis Etienne -- both of whom have had explosive games this season -- and perhaps they can override what we've seen from this New Orleans defense through Week 6. Someone will have to step up for Jacksonville if Lawrence isn't 100%.

The under has hit in all six of the Saints' games this season. With this low game total, perhaps the market has adjusted accordingly, but the true test, to both the total and the game outcome, will be whether a healthy Jaguars offense can keep up with their average of 23.7 points per game.

Jaguars vs. Saints Prop Bets

Travis Etienne Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+115)

The low game total leaves all "Anytime Touchdown Scorer" props at plus-odds, so I think this results in a few bargain options on the board.

The Saints' D isn't allowing a whole lot of rush yardage these days (96.3 average), so I'm a tad hesitant to pull the trigger on Etienne's rush yard prop. But he has undeniably been a touchdown monster, and I don't think the Saints' defense can overpower the value here.

Etienne boasts a 50.0% red zone rush share and is averaging 0.8 touchdowns per game. He's found the end zone four times over his last two games and could see a larger workload than usual if Lawrence's injury rears its head tonight.

Etienne is playing on 78.8% of snaps this season and leads the league with 113 carries. I can't imagine this prop will be at plus-odds for many more games this season, and I wouldn't overlook Etienne's high usage and success despite the difficult matchup.

Chris Olave Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

The Jaguars give up far too much passing yardage to not side with a Saints receiver tonight, and I think Chris Olave is the best option to target.

Through Week 6, he is averaging 69.0 receiving yards per game. He's on the field for 80.8% of snaps and touts a 25.2% target share and 39.3% air yard share -- leading the team in these respects. He also has a fairly sizable 14.7 average depth of target, so he should be a candidate to see some downfield looks.

Olave has cleared the bar on this prop handedly in four of six games this season, going for 85-plus yards four times. In the two games where he was held under 63 receiving yards, he was targeted just five and six times, whereas he garnered in 10-plus targets in the other four contests.

I think the market isn't accounting for how poor the Jaguars pass defense is, at least in terms of surrendered pass yardage, and Olave has proved he can go off in these spots.

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