The Genesis Invitational: Betting Picks, Win Simulations, Course History, and Key Stats

With the NFL out of the way, Sundays again belong to the PGA Tour, and we are set to see Tiger Woods tee it up at Riviera this week.

Here's all you need to know for this week.

Riviera Country Club Course Info

All course data from GCSAA unless otherwise noted.

• Par: 71
• Distance: 7,322 yards (average for a par 71)
• Average Fairway Width: 34.2 yards (50th of 87 courses)
• Average Green Size: 7,500 square feet (large)
• Green Type: Poa
• Stimpmeter: 12.5
• Recent Winning Scores: -17, -19, -12, -11, -14

Riviera Country Club Course Key Stats

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Driving Distance
• Strokes Gained: Around the Green
• Total Strokes Gained
• Putting from 5 to 15 Feet

The past two years, the leader in strokes gained: approach won at Riviera, which tends to be an all-around test for golfers.

The putting is really tricky on the poa greens (fifth-toughest, per datagolf, of any PGA Tour course), but it's also hard to hit the greens in the first place.

For that reason, good all-around golfers deserve a long look compared to finding specialists in any particular area.

Best Golfers at Riviera Country Club

These golfers have the best strokes gained numbers in the past five years at this course.

The Genesis Invitational Win Simulations

Here's what my model -- based on long-term scoring trends, recency adjustments, and field-strength weighting -- has to say about this week's event.

The Genesis Invitational Betting Picks to Target

These picks stand out relative to their FanDuel Sportsbook golf betting odds based on my win simulation model and/or my overall stats model, which accounts for the most important stats for this week's event. All stats cited below originate at datagolf and reference ranks relative to the field over the past 50 rounds unless otherwise noted.

Collin Morikawa

To Win (+1800)

To Finish Top 10 (+170)

Collin Morikawa has the best strokes gained: tee to green average at Riviera among golfers in the field with at least three starts at the course, and he has started to putt better on these tricky poa greens the past two years.

Morikawa, then, has finished T2 and T6 at The Genesis Invitational over the past two years.

We last saw Morikawa finish T14 at the 54-hole AT&T Pebble Beach. He's a positive in all four strokes gained stats over the past 50 rounds, including both short-game stats.

His putting splits from within 10 feet this season are above-average, though the numbers from 10 to 15 feet are still poor.

Adam Scott

To Win (+3000)

To Finish Top 10 (+260)

Top Oceania (+115)

Adam Scott finds himself ranked 6th in the field in strokes gained: approach over the past 50 rounds, and he's a top-25 driver (21st) and putter (25th) in that split, as well. He's 15th in driving distance gained, too.

Scott has two career wins at Riviera Country Club (2005 and 2020) and is one of the best putters on these poa greens in the field. A lot is pointing in his direction this week.

Additionally, Scott is up against Jason Day (+190) and Cam Davis (+230) in the Top Oceania group, and his biggest edge is course form.

Over the past 50 rounds, Scott has a clear ball-striking edge over Davis and Day, as well, and he's the longest off the tee, which is a key stat for me.

J.T. Poston

To Win (+5500)

To Finish Top 20 (+150)

Poston missed the cut last week at the WM Phoenix Open because of some out-of-character putting woes. But he was on fire with the irons in the second round yet couldn't make any putts.

He started his career with four made cuts at Riviera before missing the past two, but the form now is better than ever before in his career.

He's 7th in the field in strokes gained: approach, 19th around the green, and 1st in putting over the past 50 rounds.

Byeong Hun An

To Finish Top 20 (+180)

An has slightly lost strokes from approach play in his past two starts but has elevated his short game (both wedges and putting) consistently.

He is picking up distance in most weeks, and the weak putting lately has caused his odds to lengthen across all markets.

Tiger Woods Specials

To Make 4+ Birdies in Round 1 (+100)

An even-money option for betting on Tiger Woods at The Genesis Invitational makes sense. Last year, Woods made five birdies in the opening round at this event while putting well (36th in strokes gained: putting) and hitting his irons well (20th in strokes gained: approach).

In rounds two, three, and four, he made two, four, and three birdies or better, respectively. So, getting more aggressive on the round-one birdie market isn't the way I want to play it, and a fresh-as-possible Woods sets up well enough at +100 to want to get in on this market based.

Looking to use your knowledge to build some daily fantasy golf lineups? Check out all of this week's contests over at FanDuel and all golf betting odds and markets at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.