T.J. Hockenson Can Be a Difference-Maker in Fantasy Football This Season

The start of the 2023-24 NFL season is just around the corner, and that means it's time to start preparing for fantasy football drafts!

Today, we're looking at T.J. Hockenson, who recorded the second-most receptions of any tight end in the NFL last season and is expected to be one of the first three tight ends taken in fantasy drafts this year. What's his outlook in 2023?

T.J. Hockenson Overview

Fantasy rankings and projections come from numberFire.

2022 Fantasy Points: 127.40
2023 Projected Points: 130.29 points

numberFire's Projected 2023 Ranking: TE3

2023 Projected Stats:

• 135.58 targets
• 89.05 receptions
• 852.10 receiving yards
• 7.62 receiving TDs

T.J. Hockenson 2023 Fantasy Outlook

A Change of Scenery and Reaching His Potential

Hockenson was selected with the eighth overall pick in the 2019 NFL draft, but initially, he was underwhelming for the Detroit Lions. Tight ends usually take longer to break out than other skill positions, but entering the 2022-23 season, Hockenson had yet to exceed 725 yards or 6 touchdowns in a season.

Some of that had to do with the performance of the Lions' offense as a whole, and it didn't help Hockenson that the Lions' leading wide receiver over the last two seasons, Amon-Ra St. Brown, operated primarily out of the slot.

A change in scenery was needed, and the impact of his switch to the Minnesota Vikings was immediate. From the first week he arrived in Minnesota, Hockenson began to have the type of impact a player taken in the top 10 should.

In his first game as a Viking, he caught all 9 of his targets for 70 yards and never looked back, finishing the regular season with 60 receptions on 86 targets for 519 yards and 3 touchdowns. In Minnesota's playoff loss to the New York Giants, Hockenson caught 10 of his 11 targets for 129 yards.

His 8.7 yards per reception was the lowest of his career, but the result was Hockenson having the ball in his hands more consistently. In just 10 games for Minnesota, Hockenson nearly matched his highest total for receptions in a season (67). His 17-game pace, 102 receptions, would have shattered that mark.

Unlike his fit alongside St. Brown, Hockenson was able to exploit the spaces created by Justin Jefferson, rather than working in similar areas of the field.

During Hockenson's 10 games in Minnesota, he finished second in targets, receptions, and receiving yards, and tied for third in receiving touchdowns. He also posted a 21.8% target share. That is a phenomenal impact for a player who arrived in a midseason trade and had no additional time to adjust to a new offense.

Looking forward, Hockenson will enter the 2023-24 season in the prime of his career at age 26, finally in a situation where he can continue to ascend and live up to his potential.

Potential Changes in 2023

The two biggest changes for Hockenson this season will be the opportunity to go through a normal preseason with Minnesota and the arrival of rookie wide receiver Jordan Addison.

The combination of the experience gained from the second half of last season and the chance to have an entire offseason and preseason with the Vikings should increase his familiarity with their offense. After an already impressive half-season, any additional efficiency and production could help him bridge the gap between himself and the two tight ends ahead of him in average draft position (ADP), Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews.

The largest change for Hockenson will be the addition of Addison, a first-round draft pick. The 23rd overall pick in April's draft will be expected to take over the role vacated by Adam Thielen, who signed with the Carolina Panthers in free agency. Following Hockenson's arrival in Minnesota, Thielen was tied for fourth on the Vikings in targets with K.J. Osborn, averaging 5.5 per game. His four touchdowns were second behind only Jefferson.

The potential downside to Addison's arrival is increased target competition. If the rookie's career gets off to a hot start, he will provide more target competition for Hockenson than Thielen did last season.

numberFire's model expects Addison to command slightly more targets in his rookie season (113.50) than Thielen did last season (107) but expects him to be slightly less efficient (7.08 yards per target) than Thielen (7.15 yards per target). If Addison excels as a rookie and has a larger impact, it could come at the expense of Hockenson.

The good news for Hockenson is Thielen's departure vacates a wealth of high-value targets. Thielen was one of quarterback Kirk Cousins' most consistent and trusted options over the past five seasons, especially in the red zone. All six of Thielen's touchdowns last season came in the red zone, and in 2021, Thielen was PFF's second-best wide receiver in the red zone.

Even though it was only half a season, Hockenson has a more established connection with Cousins than Addison and could command a higher percentage of these vacated high-value targets.

The best-case scenario from these changes for Hockenson is a season where Addison improves the efficiency of Minnesota's offense as a whole, while Hockenson operates as the clear-cut second option behind Jefferson and dominates in the red zone. In that scenario, Hockenson could easily push for double-digit touchdowns, something Thielen accomplished in 2020 and 2021.

Opportunity Cost: Where is Hockenson Being Drafted?

There is an opportunity cost to every draft pick in fantasy football. When you choose to draft a player, you are also choosing to give up the opportunity to draft other players with a similar ADP. Thinking about these tradeoffs as you maneuver through a draft can help you build a better roster.

Hockenson's current ADP in FanDuel's best ball contests is 30.1. On Fantasy Football Calculator, his ADP is 39.3.

Selecting Hockenson at his ADP could mean passing on wide receivers DeVonta Smith and Tee Higgins, running backs Rhamondre Stevenson and Najee Harris, and quarterbacks Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson.

Smith and Higgins are both elite talents but have some volume limitations operating as the number two options on their teams behind A.J. Brown and Ja'Marr Chase, respectively.

Stevenson had an excellent sophomore season, but the threat of a split backfield always looms in New England. Harris was an elite prospect entering the league but has failed to make an impact so far, ranking 49th in PFF's rushing grade last season among 144 eligible players.

Burrow and Jackson both provide elite upside, but the depth of the quarterback position is greater than at tight end.

Final Verdict

To justify an early draft selection, a tight end has to be able to provide an impactful weekly edge over your opponents. The opportunity cost is simply too great for any other outcome to be deemed successful. Selecting Hockenson at his ADP means passing on several ascending talents at wide receiver as well as two potential difference-makers at quarterback.

The question for Hockenson thus becomes:

1. How likely is he to match the production of the two tight ends taken above him in Travis Kelce (2.5 ADP) and Mark Andrews (22.2)?
2. How likely is he to provide a meaningful advantage over the tight ends taken after him in George Kittle (37.3), Dallas Goedert ( 47.3), Darren Waller (54.3), and Kyle Pitts (71.6)?

Matching Kelce is an almost impossible task if the 33-year-old's production doesn't slow down. Since Patrick Mahomes become the starter in 2018-19, Kelce is averaging 1,288.8 yards and 9.4 touchdowns per season.

Hockenson's 17-game pace with Minnesota last season was 882.3 yards and 5.1 touchdowns. Even with a jump in his first full season on the Vikings, matching Kelce will be tough. That said, with an ADP gap of two full rounds, Hockenson can still provide value if his production is in the same neighborhood as Kelce.

Andrews' production has been impacted by Jackson's injuries, but he provides a more reachable benchmark for Hockenson. Andrews stands to benefit from the Baltimore Ravens' new offense, but he could see increased target competition after Baltimore's offseason additions. The Ravens could also find themselves in fewer shootouts than Minnesota due to the drastic differences in their defenses.

All of the tight ends taken after Hockenson have upside and downside scenarios.

Kittle has been a fantasy force in the past, but he was inconsistent last season and has a combination of concerns with his quarterback situation and the target competition he faces in a talented San Francisco 49ers pass-catching group.

Goedert has an established role on an elite offense but faces target competition from an elite wide receiver duo and has never recorded more than 58 receptions in a season.

Waller is joining a new team and could operate as the top option in the New York Giants' passing game, but his production has been trending downward since his 107-reception season in 2020-21. Since then he has missed a combined 14 games.

Pitts' has struggled to live up to expectations in the Atlanta Falcons' run-heavy offense. He missed seven games last season and will enter this season with uncertainty at quarterback as Desmond Ridder takes over under center.

There are upside scenarios where the tight ends in this group could approach Hockenson's level of production, but his path to an elite season is much clearer.

When comparing Hockenson to both groups, two-versus-two comparisons of the players you can pair him with by selecting a different position when the other tight ends come off the board can be helpful.

Some potential scenarios include:

• Hockenson and Ja'Marr Chase/Tyreek Hill/Christian McCaffrey vs. Kelce and Jaylen Waddle/Smith/Stevenson
• Hockenson and Garrett Wilson/Tony Pollard vs. Andrews and Waddle/Josh Jacobs/Joe Burrow
• Hockenson and Chris Olave/Calvin Ridley/Joe Mixon vs. Kittle and Smith/Higgins/Jackson/Stevenson
• Hockenson and Deebo Samuel/Jahmyr Gibbs/Justin Fields vs. Goedert and Smith/Higgins/Jackson/Stevenson
• Hockenson and Keenan Allen/Alexander Mattison/Kenneth Walker III/Trevor Lawrence vs. Waller and Smith/Higgins/Jackson/Stevenson
• Hockenson and Chris Godwin/Jerry Jeudy/Javonte Williams vs. Pitts and Smith/Higgins/Jackson/Stevenson

Even in an upside scenario, Hockenson matching Kelce is extremely unlikely, but he can match Andrews, and his outlook gives him an excellent chance to provide a meaningful advantage over the tight ends drafted after him.

The arrow is pointing up on Hockenson after his half-season in Minnesota. The Vikings' offense is losing one of its most consistent red zone targets, Hockenson should benefit from increased chemistry with Cousins, and Minnesota's defense could once again force them into shootouts this season.

Hockenson's profile as an established second option on a good offense is very similar to the two wide receivers taken near him in Smith and Higgins. The difference is the depth of the wide receiver position versus the depth of the tight end position.

Hockenson is worth a pick at his ADP in the late third round and is an excellent selection if he slips past that in drafts that push tight ends down the board.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.