Stars vs. Oilers: Betting Picks, Props, and Prediction for Game 3

Austin Swaim
Austin SwaimASwaim3
Stars vs. Oilers: Betting Picks, Props, and Prediction for Game 3

In a dire situation with a loss, the Dallas Stars found a way to even their series with the Edmonton Oilers in Game 2 behind a 3-1 win that was extremely tight before a late empty-netter.

Dallas will now search for a road victory on Monday or Wednesday to regain home-ice advantage. Will they do so, or can Edmonton take one more step toward the first Canadian NHL title since 1993?

Let's dive into Game 3's best bets and player props.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com.

Stars-Oilers Game 3 Best Bet

Over 5.5 (-120)

I've come up empty on this side in two games, but math and reason should win out eventually.

The high-powered offenses of the Stars and Oilers have seem to come to a standstill with nine total goals thus far, but that's been surprisingly propelled by goaltending play from two unlikely candidates. Though Edmonton's Stuart Skinner had a fine season and ranked 22nd in goals saved above expectation (13.07 GSAx), Dallas' Jake Oettinger (1.46 GSAx) had an incredibly shaky season but has played his absolutely best in this series.

Nonetheless, these two teams have combined for 5.76 expected goals (xG) per 60 minutes this series. A previous version of Skinner or Oettinger would have only aided that cause. I'm expecting some offense soon.

Key analytical models are, too. The median totals at numberFire (6.22 goals), DRatings (6.45), and Massey Ratings (6.01) combine for an average median of 6.23 goals. That projected average alone would imply -144 odds of at least six.

This line is discounted based on low totals in the first two games, but these stars are coming for the scoresheet.

Stars-Oilers Player Prop to Target

Matt Duchene 2+ Shots on Goal (-108)

Though not always to most reliable source of offense, Matt Duchene can certainly clear this bar if these two teams open up a bit offensively.

Duchene posted multiple shots on goal in 5 of his first 13 postseason games, but he's been held to a lone marker in each of the first two games of this series. Some of that is bad luck when his second attempt missed wide in Game 1, but Duchene's role is primed for chances.

He's now on Dallas' second even-strength line and second power-play unit in light of Roope Hintz's injury, and Hintz is a question mark for Game 3. I'm a bit surprised he has been so quiet after four (!) shots on goal in his lone appearance in Dallas' series with the Colorado Avalanche when Hintz was out of the lineup.

In his current role, numberFire expects 2.4 shots on goal from Duchene on Sunday. Though it's somewhat of a boom-or-bust proposition, I definitely don't hate the idea for the former No. 3 overall pick getting going in what we're projecting to be the highest-scoring game of the series thus far.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.