Golf

Shriners Children's Open: Best Bets, Daily Fantasy Golf Picks, Course Key Stats, and Win Simulations

Brandon Gdula
Brandon Gdula@gdula13
Shriners Children's Open: Best Bets, Daily Fantasy Golf Picks, Course Key Stats, and Win Simulations

The PGA Tour's fall season continues on, and a familiar course is on the docket for this week: TPC Summerlin for the Shriners Children's Open.

Here's all you need to know for this week.

TPC Summerlin Course Info

All course data from GCSAA unless otherwise noted.

  • Par: 71
  • Distance: 7,255 yards (around 60 yards shorter than the average par 71)
  • Average Fairway Width: 34.3 yards (51st of 86 courses)
  • Average Green Size: 7,400 square feet (large)
  • Green Type: Bentgrass
  • Stimpmeter: N/A
  • Recent Winning Scores: -24, -24, -23, -23, -21
  • Recent Cut Lines: -4, -5, -7, -5, -3

TPC Summerlin Course Key Stats

TPC Summerlin tends to feature a high rate of approach shots from 100 to 150 yards without placing a big emphasis on driving stats.

Short game also matters, so putting and chipping are key stats. Basically, driver isn't the most important club in the bag here.

And with a lot of new names in the field, datagolf's adjusted strokes gained across all tours is vital at this time of the year.

Best Golfers at TPC Summerlin

These golfers have the best strokes gained numbers in recent years at this course.

Golfer
FanDuel Salary
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds
Shriners 2022
Shriners 2021
Shriners 2020
Shriners 2019
Shriners 2018
Course SG:T
Course SG:T/Rd
Matthew NeSmith$8,900+800021481832.722.04
Adam Hadwin$11,700+350010634431.721.98
Martin Laird$8,700+1200037111482829.391.47
Adam Schenk$10,600+30001232718MC26.971.50
Webb Simpson$8,600+15000MC1371522.021.57
Si Woo Kim$11,800+22008MC8551518.941.05
Chesson Hadley$8,300+80003727MC18718.741.04
View Full Table

Shriners Children's Open Win Simulations

Here's what my model -- based on long-term scoring trends, recency adjustments, and field-strength weighting -- has to say about this week's event.

Golfer
FanDuel Salary
Win%
Top-10%
Top-20%
Made Cut%
Ludvig Aberg$12,0005.89%30.95%47.14%83.18%
Tom Kim$12,2004.47%30.80%44.76%88.11%
Cameron Davis$11,9003.80%25.51%39.56%81.98%
Si Woo Kim$11,8003.51%25.12%41.62%85.74%
J.T. Poston$11,4003.49%25.11%39.71%85.20%
Adam Schenk$10,6003.16%21.42%36.01%81.20%
Eric Cole$11,3002.92%24.35%36.90%85.08%
View Full Table

While Ludvig Aberg and Tom Kim are rightfully the two favorites, they do have pretty short win odds at +1200 and +1100, respectively. Aberg finished in a five-man playoff last week. Kim won here last year, so that helps explain why the odds are so short.

Beyond them, it's a pretty even distribution both in simulation odds and actual win odds.

J.T. Poston (+2800), Adam Schenk (+3000), and Eric Cole (+3500) are a nice trio in the next tier, per the simulation model.

Shriners Children's Open Daily Fantasy Golf Picks

These picks stand out relative to their FanDuel daily fantasy golf salary based on my stats model, which accounts for the most important stats for this week's event. All stats cited below originate at datagolf and reference ranks relative to the field over the past 50 rounds. References to my combo model refer to a combination of long-term, field-adjusted form, key stat performance, and hole-by-hole-level strokes gained data.

Shriners Children's Open DFS Studs

Ludvig Aberg ($12,000 | +1200)

Aberg lost in a five-man playoff last week and will again play a course he hasn't played on the PGA Tour -- but that didn't slow him down last week.

Aberg is now 1st in the field in strokes gained: off the tee over the past 50 rounds while ranking 51st in approach play. He needs to improve the irons, but he's still the best tee-to-green golfer in the field over the past 50 rounds even with modest iron play.

Aberg's my model's favorite win pick, as well, so I'm going anchor him in lineups.

Eric Cole ($11,300 | +3500)

The hype on Eric Cole should still be high. Cole has gained strokes from approach play in 10 straight measured events and is first in the field in strokes gained: approach through putting.

At a course where driver isn't a must, that's a good recipe for Cole, who is one of datagolf's top course fits for the week.

Others to Consider:

  • Tom Kim ($12,200 | +1100)
  • Adam Schenk ($10,600 | +3000)
  • Andrew Putnam ($10,300 | +4000)

Shriners Children's Open DFS Mid-Range Plays

Adam Svensson ($9,800 | +4500)

Svensson is one of the top ball-strikers in the field (25th) while also sitting 19th in strokes gained: putting over the past 50 rounds.

He's missed the cut here twice in the past five years but is golfing pretty well and is at his career peak right now.

Kevin Streelman ($9,200 | +12000)

Though the win equity is low for Streelman, it's low for most golfers outside the top tier this week.

Streelman is 15th in the field in strokes gained: tee to green -- but 76th in putting. That's what bogs down his finishes.

In a field like this one, though, he rates out as one of the best players right now regardless of salary. He's played this course a ton and finished T20 here last year.

Others to Consider:

  • Mark Hubbard ($10,000 | +5500)
  • Beau Hossler ($9,900 | +3500)
  • Joseph Bramlett ($9,100 | +12000)

Shriners Children's Open DFS Value Plays

Nick Taylor ($8,800 | +7500)

Nick Taylor's salary is really low. He's 18th in true strokes gained over the past 50 rounds and is top-35 in all three non-driving stats.

He's teeing it up for the first time since August, when he was 25th at the TOUR Championship, so that's part of why the salary is low.

But as far as potential goes, Taylor is a great value play.

Ben Griffin ($8,600 | +6000)

Some similar notes can be applied to Ben Griffin as the ones we just laid out for Nick Taylor.

Griffin's 20th in true strokes gained over the past 50 rounds as well as top 35 in approach, around-the-green, and putting strokes gained.

But he striped the irons last week en route to a T2 at the Sanderson Farms Championship, so he's also shaping up as a great value.

Others to Consider:

  • Matthew NeSmith ($8,900 | +7000)
  • Chesson Hadley ($8,300 | +7500)
  • Chad Ramey ($8,300 | +8000)

Looking to use your knowledge to build some daily fantasy golf lineups? Check out all of this week's contests over at FanDuel and all golf betting odds and markets at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.