Rockets vs. Heat Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for March 21

Rockets vs. Heat Game Info

• Date: Saturday, March 21, 2026
• Time: 8 p.m. ET
• Venue: Toyota Center -- Houston, Texas
• Coverage: FDSSUN and SCHN

The Miami Heat (38-32) are underdogs (+2) in their attempt to stop a three-game losing streak when they visit the Houston Rockets (42-27) at 8 p.m. ET on Saturday, March 21, 2026 at Toyota Center. The matchup airs on FDSSUN and SCHN. The matchup has an over/under set at 228.5 points.

Rockets vs. Heat Odds & Spread

All NBA betting lines, odds and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Rockets vs. Heat Prediction & Pick

All NBA win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Rockets win (54.5%)

Rockets vs. Heat Betting Trends

• The Rockets have covered the spread 29 times in 69 games with a set spread.
• The Heat have played 70 games, with 41 wins against the spread.
• Games involving the Rockets have hit the over 29 times out of 70 chances this season.
• Heat games this season have hit the over on 39 of 70 set point totals (55.7%).
• Houston has covered the spread in a lower percentage of its home games than road games. It has covered 12 times in 34 games at home, and it has covered 17 times in 35 games on the road.
• At home, the Rockets eclipse the over/under 32.4% of the time (11 of 34 games). They hit the over more often in road games, going over the total in 51.4% of games (18 of 35).
• Miami has performed better against the spread on the road (20-13-1) than at home (21-15-0) this year.
• In terms of the over/under, Heat games have gone over 20 of 36 times at home (55.6%), and 19 of 34 away (55.9%).

Rockets Leaders

• Kevin Durant is averaging 25.7 points, 4.5 assists and 5.5 boards.
• Alperen Sengun is averaging 20.2 points, 6.2 assists and 8.9 boards.
• Amen Thompson's numbers on the season are 17.9 points, 7.8 boards and 5.3 assists per contest, shooting 52.1% from the field.
• Jabari Smith Jr. is averaging 15.6 points, 6.8 boards and 1.8 assists.
• Reed Sheppard is averaging 13.4 points, 2.8 boards and 3.2 assists. Defensively, he averages 1.4 steals and 0.7 blocked shots.

Heat Leaders

• Bam Adebayo averages 20.2 points for the Heat, plus 9.7 rebounds and 2.9 assists.
• Per game, Kel'el Ware gets the Heat 11.3 points, 9.4 rebounds and 0.6 assists. He also averages 0.8 steals and 1.1 blocks.
• The Heat are receiving 22.3 points, 3.6 boards and 2.6 assists per game from Norman Powell.
• Davion Mitchell averages 9.1 points, 2.7 rebounds and 6.6 assists. He is sinking 48.4% of his shots from the floor and 41% from 3-point range, with 1.2 triples per game.
• Pelle Larsson averages 10.8 points, 3.4 boards and 3.4 assists. He is sinking 48.9% of his shots from the field.

For more NBA betting insights, check out FanDuel Research's NBA home page.

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