Ranking the 12 Teams in the College Football Playoff by Blended Power Ratings

No statistical model is perfect. Even if we build something to the best of our abilities, it's inherently going to overrate some teams and underrate others.

Those margins get trimmed down, though, the more smart voices we add to the conversation.

This is the "wisdom of the crowd" effect, where a group of people will tend to have a better idea of what to expect than any one person. If we broaden our scope beyond just one statistical model, we can reduce the margin of error for each team and get a better idea of what to expect.

Today, we're going to do that with this year's 12-team College Football Playoff field.

Below, you'll see how each team grades out in a blend of various college football power ratings models. Each model projects the strength of a team relative to a league-average opponent on a neutral field. Here, I simply gave each model equal weight and blended them together.

The power ratings models included were from numberFire, The Power Rank, ESPN FPI, Bill Connelly's SP+, and PFF. The table below shows each team's blended power rating (along with their National Championship odds in FanDuel Sportsbook's college football betting odds). Below, we'll parse through the data and see what it all means about this year's field.

Click here to see the full College Football Playoff Bracket with first-round matchups and paths.

College Football Playoff Power Ratings

1. Ohio State Buckeyes

Power Rating: 26.8

Highest Rank: 1st

Lowest Rank: 3rd

Despite the crushing loss to Michigan, the Ohio State Buckeyes still sit atop the blended power ratings. Their lone other loss was a last-second soul-crusher on the road against Oregon, and they were able to wipe out inferior foes on their schedule.

The problem here is the draw. Tennessee is a solid first-round foe, and even if they win there, they have to face Oregon again in the second round. They're a good enough team to get the job done, but the bracket didn't do them any favors.

2. Texas Longhorns

Power Rating: 25.9

Highest Rank: 1st

Lowest Rank: 4th

Thanks to their loss in the SEC Championship Game, the Texas Longhorns are the 5 seed, but they still lead in one of the models and are no lower than fourth in any others. They should still have a good shot at the semis.

Although Clemson is better than the 12th seed in the tournament, they're also a clear step below Texas. That's why Texas is favored by 11.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook.

The semifinals would pit them against Arizona State, the 11th-ranked team by this method, and the power ratings would have Texas favored by 12.8 on a neutral field before accounting for rest. Things would get tougher from there, but there's still reason for Texas fans to enter with optimism.

3. Oregon Ducks

Power Rating: 25.5

Highest Rank: 1st

Lowest Rank: 8th

The Oregon Ducks are the only team to lead in more than one of our five sources, and they're second in another. The other two dragged them down enough to put Ohio State and Texas on top.

Even there, though, the margins are slim. The blended power ratings would make Ohio State a 1.3-point favorite on a neutral field before accounting for rest, meaning Oregon is still in a good spot. You'd just hope the advantage for clinching the 1 seed would be bigger than what Oregon got in this draw.

4. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Power Rating: 25.0

Highest Rank: 1st

Lowest Rank: 7th

As improbable as it would have been after their loss to Northern Illinois, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish have a pretty clear path to at least the semifinals and potentially more.

Their first-round opponent -- Indiana -- is a tough out. But that game's in South Bend, which is why Notre Dame is favored by more than a touchdown.

If Notre Dame wins, they'd face Georgia. Not only is Notre Dame ranked slightly higher by the blended power ratings, but quarterback health could impact Georgia, as well. A hypothetical trip to the semis would put them up against either Boise State or the winner of Penn State-SMU.

We have seen Notre Dame falter in the playoffs plenty of times in the past. We just shouldn't write them off, both due to how the models view them and how things broke in the bracket.

5. Georgia Bulldogs

Power Rating: 23.2

Highest Rank: 3rd

Lowest Rank: 10th

With Carson Beck banged up, the Georgia Bulldogs will cherish their first-round bye, meaning their first game won't take place until New Year's Eve or Day. If Beck can't go -- which currently seems likely -- it'll give them more runway to prepare Gunner Stockton.

Georgia's still getting respect in the market, sitting at +410 to win it, because they've got a bye and a proven track record of winning when it matters most. The models just seem lower on them than usual, and that's before accounting for a potential absence from Beck.

6. Penn State Nittany Lions

Power Rating: 22.2

Highest Rank: 4th

Lowest Rank: 12th

The Penn State Nittany Lions got a super advantageous draw here. If they were to defeat SMU in the opening round, the blended power ratings would have Penn State favored by 11.5 over Boise State on a neutral site in the second round (before accounting for Boise State's rest advantage).

The perception of Penn State under James Franklin is that they can't win big games; they'll get their chances to buck that narrative this year.

7. Tennessee Volunteers

Power Rating: 20.9

Highest Rank: 7th

Lowest Rank: 13th

The Tennessee Volunteers are a good football team, as evidenced by their ranking here. They just got a tough draw with Ohio State in the first round.

Tennessee is frisky enough to make that game competitive, as evidenced by a non-insurmountable 7.5-point spread. It's just not ideal to have to face the top-rated team in the blended power rankings at their campus right out of the gate.

8. Indiana Hoosiers

Power Rating: 20.9

Highest Rank: 5th

Lowest Rank: 12th

The Indiana Hoosiers are similar to Tennessee: a certifiably good football team with a tough assignment in the first round. They're on the road against Notre Dame.

Indiana ranks inside the top six of two of the five models, including one which had them ahead of Notre Dame. If Indiana wants to silence those who said they didn't beat any good teams this year, they'll get a chance in the first round.

9. SMU Mustangs

Power Rating: 18.0

Highest Rank: 11th

Lowest Rank: 13th

No team had a more consistent view across the models than the SMU Mustangs. They were 11th in one model, 12th in another, and 13th in the other three.

They are also, though, where things start to fall off. Their power rating is 2.9 points lower than eighth-ranked Indiana, and they're 4.2 points behind their first-round opponent, Penn State. These models are still relatively high on SMU despite their easy-ish schedule, but they're 8.5-point underdogs to Penn State for a reason.

10. Clemson Tigers

Power Rating: 15.6

Highest Rank: 10th

Lowest Rank: 21st

Despite being the 12 seed, the Clemson Tigers actually grade out better in these power ratings than either Arizona State or Boise State. Thus, they're likely a bit better than their seeding. It just may not matter too much.

Clemson gets Texas in the first round, and the blended power ratings would make Texas a 10.3-point favorite even if this were on a neutral field. Similar to Georgia, Clemson has plentiful experience winning big games, but they've got their work cut out for them right away.

11. Arizona State Sun Devils

Power Rating: 13.1

Highest Rank: 14th

Lowest Rank: 30th

This is where the models get really skeptical.

The Arizona State Sun Devils rank outside the top 20 in 3 of 5 models, and they're 17th in another. The power ratings would have them as an underdog in the quarterfinals against both Texas and Clemson, before accounting for the rest advantage Arizona State will possess.

If you've watched Arizona State recently, you know they were picked to finish last in the Big 12, and they overcame that due to absurd play from Cam Skattebo and Sam Leavitt. They've been doubted before. We'll see if they can buck expectations one more time.

12. Boise State Broncos

Power Rating: 10.7

Highest Rank: 18th

Lowest Rank: 42nd

The highest ranking for the Boise State Broncos -- 18th -- comes from the lone model that puts them in the top 20. They're 32nd in one and 42nd in another. The blended power ratings would make them 2.4-point underdogs to the 11th-ranked Arizona State on a neutral field.

The odds are stacked against them, which is why they're +6500 to win it all despite a first-round bye.

It's not as if the teams they'll face are invincible. We've touched on Penn State's issues in big games, and Georgia has key injuries. Plus, anything's possible when you've got Ashton Jeanty. Just strictly from a numbers perspective, though, Boise State is easily the 12th-ranked team entering the dance.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.