Premier League Betting Picks for Wednesday 12/6/23: Brentford Could Upset Brighton

While there were games on Tuesday and there are games Thursday, the majority of the midweek action takes place on Wednesday for this matchweek.

When looking at the EPL soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets make the most sense for Wednesday?

EPL Betting: Wednesday 12/6/23

Brentford at Brighton (2:30 ET)

Brentford ML (+270)

Two teams that have ascended in recent seasons to being comfortably in the mid-table of the Premier League will face each other in this match. They both have dreams of pushing into Europe regularly. Brighton have already done so, and Brentford could be next with how things are going this season.

These clubs had opposite starts to the season. Brighton won five of their first six matches in the league and looked to potentially be contenders for the top four if things broke right. Since then, things haven't been going well. They've won just one Premier League match since September and haven't kept any clean sheets in the league this season.

Brentford started the season playing well but were drawing too many games to see the payoff. They had more expected goals (xG) than their opponents in their first four matches of the season, according to FBRef, but won just one of those games.

Speaking of xG, Brentford have an advantage in that department. Their xG differential is +8.3 -- better than the likes of Tottenham's, Manchester United's and Aston Villa's. Brighton were xG darlings of the league for years, but their +2.4 differential is dwarfed by Brentford's.

This bet isn't a sure thing by any means, but it's pretty easy to like getting +270 on a team that appears to be better overall and is in much better form.

Chelsea at Manchester United (3:15 ET)

Under 2.5 Goals (+121)

Two of the "big six" in the Premier League face off at Old Trafford on Wednesday. These two teams are among the most unpredictable in the league right now, and it's difficult to tell exactly how they will perform moving forward.

What we should be able to predict is a lack of ruthless finishing, especially from Manchester United. The Red Devils have scored just 16 goals this season, equal to teams like Nottingham Forest, Bournemouth and Fulham. They've underperformed their xG by 4.2 because their forwards have been misfiring all season.

Chelsea have also scored fewer goals than expected. They have been better in attack than United, though, netting 25 goals in the league this season. Chelsea have benefitted from the most penalties in the Premier League, which has boosted their xG to the fourth-highest in the league. Their non-penalty xG ranks only sixth.

In the Premier League this season, six of Manchester United's 14 games have had one goal in them. They aren't a high-scoring team and can manage to limit most opponents. It will be harder to do so against Chelsea, but the Blues are also capable of being discombobulated in attack.

I think betting this game to stay under 2.5 goals at +121 odds makes a lot of sense.

Player Props

Dominik Szoboszlai to Assist (+240): Szoboszlai has been good for Liverpool in his first season with the club. He's started 14 league goals and provided what they were missing from midfield.

Szoboszlai is a creator, and his passes have generated 3.9 expected assists this season. He's been unlucky in the assist department, as his 1.9 differential between expected assists and actual assists is the fifth-highest in the league.

In this matchup against Sheffield United, Liverpool should have no problems generating chances. That should give Szoboszlai plenty of opportunities to get an assist in this match, and we're getting great odds for him to do that.

Erling Haaland to Score (-120): Haaland to score at this short of odds is the way we'll go with our last bet.

Haaland has actually slightly underperformed his xG this season, scoring 14 goals on 14.1 xG. Those 14 goals still have him atop the EPL goal-scoring charts, and that tally means he's averaging one a game.

A road match at Villa may look like a tough match on paper for Manchester City, but Aston Villa have conceded the ninth-most xG in the league this season. We also know that if City get awarded a penalty, Haaland will be the man to step up to the spot and take it.

Looking for more soccer betting opportunities? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to check out all of the soccer odds.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.