Premier League Betting Picks for Thursday 12/28/23: Arsenal Look to Go Top in Style

We'll end this round of festive fixtures with just two games on Thursday.

When looking at the EPL soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets make the most sense?

EPL Betting

Tottenham at Brighton (2:30 PM ET )

Over 3.5 Goals (+124)

Both of these teams like to play an open style of attacking soccer, so we're not looking at the standard over/under of 2.5 goals. We're going to look for even more goals than that.

These two teams don't have the best defensive records, especially for teams in good league position like these two teams are. Tottenham sit in ninth place but have allowed the ninth-most expected goals (xG) in the league, according to FBRef's model. Brighton have allowed the 11th-most xG.

These sides are able to attack effectively, as well. They sit seventh and eighth in xG for. Spurs have outperformed their 30.5 xG, scoring 37 goals. Brighton have been able to outperform theirs, as well, with 34 goals on just 29.4 xG.

Tottenham are likely to be forced to play with two full backs at center-back, with usual center-backs Mickey van de Ven and Cristian Romero both injured. Brighton are a team full of tricky, creative players that will be tough assignments for defenders playing out of position to deal with.

I think this game has the makings of a high-scoring, close encounter with both teams certainly being capable of playing good soccer. We’ve also seen a bit of calamity from both this season.

This +124 number on over 3.5 goals is more than a fair price for this match.

West Ham at Arsenal (3:15 PM ET)

Arsenal -1.5 (-106)

The other North London club besides Tottenham will also be in action on Thursday, and it will be in a London derby.

Arsenal come into this match two points behind Liverpool, and a win would put them back on top of the Premier League. They have the best xG differential in the league, both overall and on a per-90-minute basis.

The Gunners are one of the best teams at home in the EPL. Across nine matches at the Emirates this campaign, they have drawn two games and won seven.

West Ham are a typical mid-table club, with the occasional flirtation to break into the top six but also sometimes flirting with relegation. This season, they are looking more like the former.

Despite being in seventh place, West Ham have an xG differential of -4.6. Based on xG differential per 90 minutes, the Hammers should be closer to 14th in the table.

The way West Ham has picked up points this season does not bode well for them against Arsenal. Their possession rate per match is 41.3%, the fifth-worst in the league. Arsenal average a possession clip of 59.8% per game. This style may work for West Ham against other teams, but if Arsenal are able to score early, West Ham will desperately need a plan B.

If Arsenal really are title contenders, winning this game by more than one goal shouldn't be too difficult.

Player Props

Bukayo Saka to Score or Assist (-135): If we think Arsenal will win this match by at least two goals, it would make sense for arguably their best attacking player to contribute to a goal. Saka has five goals and six assists in 17 league appearances this season. He also takes penalties and corner kicks, so he could pay off this bet from a dead ball.

Son Heung-Min to Score (+175): With Son tied for fourth in the Premier League in goals, getting him to score at this number is very nice -- especially since we expect this match to be back-and-forth and high scoring. Another interesting element of this is the fact that Son has taken Tottenham's only penalty this season. He will likely be the one to take a spot kick if Spurs are awarded one and could pay off this bet in rather easy fashion if given the opportunity to take a pen.

Looking for more soccer betting opportunities? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to check out all of the soccer odds.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.