Premier League Betting Picks for Matchweek 18: Will Arsenal Win at Anfield?

The holiday season is officially here and with it comes a week of fixture congestion for every team in the Premier League. After having played at least four matches in December already, teams will be squeezing in three more between now and the second of January. Keep an eye on starting lineups as squad rotation could be more prevalent starting this weekend.

Matchweek 18 -- which starts on Thursday -- features nine matches and is highlighted by a showdown between Arsenal and Liverpool.

When looking at the EPL soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets make the most sense for this matchweek?

EPL Betting: Matchweek 18

Arsenal at Liverpool (12:30 p.m. ET Saturday)

Arsenal Moneyline (+190)

Saturday's seismic clash between Arsenal and Liverpool will determine who sits on top of the table heading into Matchweek 19. Arsenal currently holds a one-point lead after Liverpool slipped up and dropped points in a disappointing 0-0 draw with Manchester United at Anfield last Sunday.

We will be back at Anfield for this one, where Liverpool have been excellent this season. Until their draw to Manchester United, they had won all seven of their home fixtures, with a combined score of 21-5. That record is a bit misleading, though, as Liverpool has hosted only one side that is currently inside the top-six on the table -- Aston Villa way back in Matchweek 4. The Gunners will be the biggest test the Reds faced at home this season by a wide margin.

Likewise, this will be the biggest test Arsenal have faced on the road this season. Away from home, the Gunners rank second in xG difference per 90 (+.84) -- per FBRef -- but in their three matches against better opposition -- Aston Villa, Chelsea, and Newcastle -- they have two losses and a draw with a combined score of 2-4. All five of their road wins came against sides currently sitting in the bottom half of the table.

Both sides enter this weekend with a win, a draw, and a loss in their three most recent matches across all competitions. Liverpool has been the better side at generating xG this season, ranking second (34.4) while Arsenal ranks fifth (31.3). The gap between the two sides defensively is wider. Arsenal has allowed the fewest xG this season (12.7) while Liverpool has allowed the third-fewest (20.5).

Of the two, only Arsenal have earned results against other top Premier League clubs this season. The Gunners drew with Tottenham and Chelsea and lost to Newcastle and Aston Villa but picked up wins over Manchester United and Manchester City. Looking at xG, across all those matches combined, Arsenal came out ahead 7.5-5.7.

Liverpool dismissed Villa and Newcastle in late August/early September, but since then, they have been winless against better opponents, with draws to Chelsea, Manchester City, and Manchester United and a loss to Tottenham. Looking at xG, across all those matches combined, Liverpool came out narrowly ahead 8.9-8.4.

Arsenal's strength, their defense, has shown up in big moments, allowing 1.0 xG or fewer to Manchester City, Newcastle, Manchester United, and Newcastle. In Liverpool's only other game against a defense with a similar xG allowed record as the Gunners' -- Manchester City -- they managed just 0.6 xG, although that was away from home.

Over their last five EPL fixtures, Liverpool have averaged 1.58 xG per match. Over their last five EPL fixtures, the Gunners' defense is allowing just 0.72 xG per match.

These sides have reached the top of the table in different ways, and while Liverpool will enjoy a home-field advantage in this one, I believe Arsenal are the slightly better side and like them at +190.

Everton at Tottenham (10:00 a.m. ET Saturday)

Everton Moneyline (+310)

This weekend's clash between Everton and Tottenham is a highly entertaining fixture.

After a five-match run with four losses and a draw, Tottenham has rebounded nicely, notching wins against Newcastle and Nottingham Forest. They sit fifth on the league table, but their underlying metrics continue to indicate they are getting lucky. They rank a respectable seventh in xG (29.1), but their defense, which has allowed the seventh-most xG (28.1), has been a weak spot. It adds up to an xG difference per 90 (+.06) that ranks 10th.

Early in the season, Tottenham's home field was a fortress. They won their first four home fixtures, including victories over Manchester United and Liverpool by a combined score of 8-2. On xG, those matches finished with a combined score of 7.5-5.2.

In their four home fixtures since then, Spurs have one win and three losses by a combined score of 7-9. On xG, those matches finished with a combined score of 8.8-9.7. Overall, Tottenham's xG difference per 90 at home this season (+0.19) ranks 12th. They have allowed the second-most home xG (14.8) in the league this season, behind only Sheffield United.

Everton enters this fixture on a four-game winning streak, with just one loss in their last eight fixtures. After an extremely slow start to the season, they have turned things around in a big way. In their 12 fixtures since Matchweek 6, Everton has lost the xG battle just twice -- to Liverpool and Crystal Palace. The 10-point penalty Everton were assessed for breaching financial rules has them sitting in 16th. Without it, they would be tied for ninth, just two points behind Manchester United in seventh.

The underlying metrics indicate that is where Everton belongs, in the top half of the table. The Toffees have produced the 10th-most xG (26.9) and allowed the fifth-fewest (21.9). Their xG difference per 90 (+0.29) ranks eighth, two spots above Tottenham's.

Everton's defense has held up on the road. They have allowed the fourth-fewest xG (11.5) away from home this season, but their offense has struggled in the split, generating the seventh-fewest xG (9.6). Despite those struggles, they have amassed 2.0 points per road fixture this season, tied for first with Tottenham and Arsenal.

xG metrics indicate that these two sides are more similar than their positions on the league table indicate. Even without their point penalty, Everton would be behind Spurs, but the underlying metrics indicate that Tottenham are overperforming their expected outcomes.

Spurs earned a big result the last time they played at home, but overall, they have enjoyed little benefit from playing in the friendly confines of Tottenham Hotspur Stadium this season. On the other end of the pitch, Everton has been one of the best away sides in the leagues. I believe these sides are closer than their odds in this fixture indicate, and I like the Toffees at +310 to win.

Player Props

Bruno Fernandes to Score (+300): Fernandes will return on Saturday after serving a one-game suspension for yellow card accumulation. He will walk back into a clash with a West Ham side that has allowed the fourth-most xG (29.1) in the league this season. You never know what you're going to get with United, but they earned a hard-fought draw at Anfield last Sunday -- their first decent result against elite opposition this season. Bruno's role on penalty kicks gives him an additional out, and West Ham have conceded three penalty kicks this season, tied for the fifth-most.

Jarrod Bowen to Score (+250): United ranks just behind West Ham on xG allowed this season with 28.9. They kept a clean sheet against Liverpool but conceded 2.3 xG. United have allowed more than 1.0 xG in 14 of their 17 Premier League fixtures this season. There could be goals on both sides in this contest. In his last four matches, Bowen has two goals and an assist from 10 total shots (five on target). He ranks ninth in the EPL in xG (6.5) this season, sixth in shots (43), and second in shots on target (22).

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.