Premier League Betting Guide Matchweek 8: Back the Blues Against Burnley

We've got one weekend of club soccer before the international break, so let's try to win some bets before taking a week off from the Premier League.

When looking at the EPL soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets make the most sense for this matchweek?

EPL Betting: Matchweek 8

Chelsea at Burnley (10 a.m. ET Saturday )

Chelsea Moneyline (-135)

It's difficult to back Chelsea given their form over the past two seasons. From an outside perspective, the club has looked like a mess since Todd Boehly took over in May 2022. They spent a ton of money in the transfer market last season, sacked two different managers and ultimately finished in 12th place last year.

The Blues are coming off a derby win against Fulham but still sit just 11th in the table. Their squad has seen so much turnover over the last year that it's hard -- at times -- to even remember who's on their team, let alone predict a starting XI.

However, Chelsea have perhaps been better than people think this season. They have won the expected goal (xG) battle in every match this campaign, according to FBRef's model. Overall in the Premier League, they have the fourth-best xG differential.

They are on the road on Saturday against Burnley. Burnley are 18th in the table and have just one league win -- against fellow relegation candidates Luton Town on Tuesday. The Clarets sit as the fourth-worst team in xG differential in the EPL.

Chelsea will be getting Nicolas Jackson back from suspension this week. He's arguably Chelsea's best striker, and having him back is a boost for the Blues.

Burnley being at home isn't necessarily enough of a reason to be optimistic about them in this match. They've lost all four of their home league matches this season and have conceded 12 goals in the four matches.

The data suggests Chelsea are performing much better than their results show, and the Blues should be able to win this match.

Aston Villa at Wolves (9 a.m. ET Sunday)

Aston Villa Moneyline (+115)

Both of these teams enter this match fresh off their best league win of the season and will now face off in a midlands derby.

Last year, Aston Villa's midseason manager change did wonders for them. They finished last season on a high note and got up to seventh place. It's carried over to this season, as they've won five of seven matches in the league thus far.

The xG numbers don't paint Aston Villa in the best light. They are fifth in the actual table but have only the 10th-best xG differential.

Ollie Watkins has been a factor in Villa outperforming their xG. His expected goal contributions are just 5.2, but he has seven actual goals+assists this season.

The other factor in their xG is their opponents. In four games against Newcastle, Liverpool, Chelsea and Brighton, their xG differential is -3.7. In three games against Everton, Burnley and Crystal Palace, that number is 5.9.

Luckily this week, Villa will face a side that's closer to the latter group. Wolves had an impressive win last week against Manchester City but are still 15th in the table. They also are 16th in xG differential.

Villa are a good enough team to be odds-on favorites in this game, but we are getting them at +115.

Player Props

Dominic Calvert-Lewin to Score (+180): Dominic Calvert-Lewin could finally be healthy, and he bagged a goal last week. The last time he played the majority of matches in a season, he scored 16 goals. Now, he's at home and playing for a favored Everton side. They'll take on Bournemouth, the side that's allowed the second-most xGs this season. DCL could also be on penalty kicks. If we were sure that was the case, his goal-scoring odds would likely be shorter.

James Maddison to Assist (+200): Maddison has fit right in with Tottenham since joining in the summer. He has been one of the best playmakers in the Premier League for the last handful of seasons, and that's carried right over to his first campaign with Spurs. Tottenham are -230 favorites in this game against Luton Town, so they should be in a position to score at least a few goals. Maddison is tied for the league lead with four assists and also has the most chances created with 46. There's a lot to like about getting him at +200 to provide an assist in this soft matchup.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.