PGA DFS: BMW Championship Stud, Mid-Tier, and Value Picks

Winning consecutive PGA Tour events isn't easy, but that's what Lucas Glover did to end the PGA Tour's regular season and to earn a FedExCup Playoffs win at the FedEx St. Jude Championship last week.

While a three-peat would be quite impressive, a return to the winner's circle is probably more of a narrative for Jon Rahm, who finished T37 out of 70 golfers a week ago to start the playoffs.

Rahm, though, is the winner of the 2020 iteration of the BMW Championship, which was held at Olympia Fields -- where it returns this week.

To help with your prep for this week, you can also check out my course notes, key stats, and course history rundown, and my win simulation model for the week.

BMW Championship DFS Picks

These picks stand out relative to their FanDuel daily fantasy golf salary based on my stats model, which accounts for the most important stats for this week's event. All stats cited below originate at datagolf and reference ranks relative to the field over the past 50 rounds. References to my combo model refer to a combination of long-term, field-adjusted form, key stat performance, and hole-by-hole-level strokes gained data.

BMW Championship Studs

Rory McIlroy ($12,300 | +600)

At a certain point, Scottie Scheffler's putting has to matter. This week, Rory McIlroy has the higher salary ($12,300), and while Scheffler ($12,200) still makes sense this week and while my win simulation model has his win odds around two points higher than McIlroy's, I'm siding with Rory finally.

Scheffler still leads the field in strokes gained: tee to green easily over the past 50 rounds. Of note, Scheffler didn't putt well at Olympia Fields in 2020 but ranked 8th in ball-striking en route to a T20 finish. Scheffler's putter change did not lead to positive strokes gained last week. (Far from it.)

As for McIlroy, he has 63rd-percentile putting splits from within 15 feet (it's 13th-percentile for Scottie), and he is the much bigger hitter off the tee, which should go a long way this week. McIlroy finished T12 here in 2020. You can't go wrong with either, per se, but with Rory's improved putting, I prefer him from a daily fantasy standpoint.

Xander Schauffele ($11,300 | +1800)

Schauffele's T24 last week came on the back of the third-best strokes gained: approach number in the field, and he remains one of the best iron-plus-putter players in the world. Schauffele gained in both areas here in 2020 when finishing T25, but the wedges weren't great. The salary is down enough to where Schauffele is a value yet again.

Others to Consider:

• Scottie Scheffler ($12,200 | +700) - When he finally putts well, he will dominate a week.
• Tyrrell Hatton ($10,800 | +2500) - T16 here in 2020; trending up overall but a weak showing last week keeps the salary low.
• Rickie Fowler ($10,600 | +3300) - Struggled a lot last week but long-term sample says he's a value at this salary.

BMW Championship Mid-Range Plays

Wyndham Clark ($9,900 | +4000)

After a terrible showing at the FedEx St. Jude Championship (T66 of 70 golfers), should we move away from Wyndham Clark? No. One event isn't very predictive of anything, so we don't need to overreact. He's in the $9,000-range (barely) and is a top-12 ball-striker in the field over the past 50 rounds. The putting is good, too, so let's get back on the Clark train.

Corey Conners ($9,600 | +5000)

Fresh off a T6 last week, Conners' salary bumped up $200, and he still remains a value as a result. Conners did putt well last week, yet he is a 55th-percentile putter from within 15 feet this season, so it's not like he's a bad putter overall (and is actually due for some regression). We can again target a plus ball-striker with solid putting numbers for a mid-tier salary with Conners.

Others to Consider:

• Russell Henley ($10,000 | +4000) - Lacks distance but has great irons; T25 here in 2020.
• Cameron Young ($9,800 | +3500) - Big hitter with numbers that beg putting regression.
• Byeong Hun An ($9,200 | +6500) - Due for some positive putting regression; great driver.

BMW Championship Value Plays

Keegan Bradley ($9,000 | +8000)

The simulation model likes Bradley a good bit this week -- and easily the most of anyone with a salary of $9,000 or lower. That's not super fair because his salary is at the top of that -- but the gap is still large. Though Bradley's short game has carried him lately, he was 15th in approach last week while the short game fell off. With the potential to put it all together, Bradley is exactly what we want in a value play profile.

Eric Cole ($8,400 | +12000)

A bit of a long shot, Cole makes sense because he's been gaining strokes with his irons virtually every week. He's done just that in 21 of 25 measured events this season with just one event that is really even noteworthily negative. That means we're getting a good iron player and putter for an $8,400 salary.

Others to Consider:

• Emiliano Grillo ($8,900 | +8000) - Top-12 iron player in the field with good recent putting.
• Denny McCarthy ($8,800 | +9000) - Distance is a potential issue but field-best putting.
• Taylor Moore ($8,600 | +10000) - Long off the tee and a good putter with elite underlying putting data.

Looking to use your knowledge to build some daily fantasy golf lineups? Check out all of this week's contests over at FanDuel and all golf betting odds and markets at FanDuel Sportsbook.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.