NRFI Bets to Target on Thursday 5/30/24

Kenyatta Storin
Kenyatta Storin@KenyattaStorin
NRFI Bets to Target on Thursday 5/30/24

The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.

Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Best NRFI Prop Bet

New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels

Over 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-113)

Although these teams failed to come through with a YRFI yesterday, the New York Yankees had the bases loaded with nobody out in the first inning, meaning it was a near miss. Had a strange play involving Juan Soto being called out for interference not happened, there's a good chance the Yankees don't emerge from the frame empty-handed.

But we're going back to the well to give this matchup another shot. New York is facing a struggling Patrick Sandoval, and we're still talking about an offense that ranks second in YRFI rate this season (38.6%).

Sandoval has been roughed up for a 5.60 ERA over 11 starts, and in his last outing, he was obliterated by the Cleveland Guardians for 8 earned runs (3 home runs) over just 3 2/3 innings.

It's worth noting that the left-hander's underlying metrics suggest that he's been unlucky. Both his xERA and SIERA sit at a more respectable 4.01, and his inflated .348 BABIP should eventually come way down.

However, even when keeping that in mind, he's unlikely to find that positive regression against the Yankees' right-handed batters. When facing righties, Sandoval has a pedestrian 20.7% strikeout rate and 9.9% walk rate this season, and while he does a decent job of inducing grounders, he's also still allowing a 34.9% fly-ball rate. Like the last couple of days, Aaron Judge has the slate's shortest odds to hit a home run (+260), and Giancarlo Stanton has pretty short odds to hit a home run (+360), as well.

While it was hard to get enthusiastic about the Los Angeles Angels' offense on Wednesday against Luis Gil -- who went on to allow just one run over eight innings -- the Halos could be a factor against Carlos Rodon tonight.

Rodon has enjoyed a bounce-back campaign with a 2.95 ERA, but it's fair to question the legitimacy of his results. The left-hander has otherwise produced a less promising 4.51 xFIP and 4.50 xERA, and his 22.2% strikeout rate is a far cry from the gaudy marks he was putting up prior to putting on pinstripes.

He's also allowing 1.33 HR/9 off a 50.3% fly-ball rate, and considering he's 18th percentile or worse in all of barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and average exit velocity, it wouldn't be shocking to see more and more dingers in his future.

It's no secret the Angels have a mediocre lineup, but they're sneaky-good against lefties. In the split, their active roster has a 135 wRC+ this season and a 118 wRC+ dating back to the start of 2023. Rodon's xFIP rises to 4.82 versus righties, and leadoff man Nolan Schanuel might be the only lefty he sees in the entire lineup. Additionally, the southpaw has logged a NRFI in just 63.6% of his starts.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.