NHL Betting Picks for Thursday 11/9/23: Senators Try to Slow Down Canucks

A huge 11-game slate makes for a great night for betting the NHL.

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com.

NHL Best Bets

New York Islanders at Boston Bruins

Bruins ML (-150)

If there's a game that should involve little scoring, it will be this one between the New York Islanders and Boston Bruins.

Both teams are at the top of the league at stopping goals. The Senators are averaging 2.8 Goals Against per 60 minutes (9th) while the Bruins have been the best at limiting their opponents, allowing just 1.89 Goals Against.

Much of that has to do with the play of their netminders, as each team's tandem has shined through the first month. New York and Boston are expected to start their top guys as Ilya Sorokin and Linus Ullmark go head-to-head.

Sorokin has had a good start to his campaign. He's put together a 3.12 goals against average (GAA) and .911 save percentage while saving 1.84 goals above expectation (GSAx). For the Bruins, Ullmark has followed his Vezina Trophy win with as strong a start as he could ask for. The goalie is stopping pucks at a high rate (.926) while keeping them out of the net as well (2.30). His 4.25 GSAx ranks 14th in the NHL so far this season.

The conservative nature of the Islanders, however, is what brings us to siding with the Bruins tonight.

New York has a 70.74 Corsi Against, the second-highest behind only the bottom-of-the-league San Jose Sharks. That means the Bruins should have plenty of opportunities to capitalize, as their 3.12 Goals For and 59.37 Corsi For should prove they will.

numberFire's model gives the Bruins a 63.63% likelihood of getting the victory.

Vancouver Canucks at Ottawa Senators

Over 6.5 Goals (-144)

Two of the top offensive units in the NHL are going head-to-head, so Over 6.5 Goals feels like an easy reality to reach.

The Vancouver Canucks have been the surprise of the 2023-24 NHL season thus far, sitting at an impressive 9-2-1 record. The Ottawa Senators have surprised a bit, too, showing that they can be an offensive force.

These two teams rank in the top three in Goals For, with Vancouver leading the league at a staggering 4.48 Goals For per 60 minutes. Ottawa ranks third at 4.00 Goals For, so they are no slouches in the scoring department by any means.

Defensively, they're similar again when it comes to Corsi Against, ranking in the middle of the league. Vancouver is a tick better at 59.77 while Ottawa is at 60.18.

Things change, though, when stopping goals. The Canucks are limiting their opposition to just 1.99 Goals Against, the second-best in the NHL. The Senators are allowing the seventh-most, so it's a lot different for them (3.45). That likely comes down to goaltending.

Thatcher Demko has been one of hockey's best -- arguably the best. Demko has an insane 15.01 GSAx that's 5.23 better than the next-best on the season. For the Senators, they'll be sending out Anton Forsberg in the second game of their back-to-back. Forsberg has been under par with a -1.96 GSAx, so the Canucks should have no problem scoring here.

This game feels like a lock for a lot of goals, even if it's mostly from the Canucks' side. They've scored five goals or more six different times already. If the Senators can beat Demko a few times, we should be good to go.

Nashville Predators at Winnipeg Jets

Jets ML (-130)

The Winnipeg Jets are coming in hot and should be able to keep that going against the Nashville Predators.

Winnipeg has notched two straight five-goal performances (both wins), so to say they're feeling it would be an understatement. Nashville, on the other hand, has lost three of their last four games.

The Jets rank 10th in Corsi For (63.24) and 2nd in Corsi Against (63.24), proving that they're a team that should be able to compete for a playoff spot all year. The Predators don't have the same elite success but are in the middle of the NHL in Corsi For (58.07) and Corsi Against (60.65).

Consistency has been fitting for the Canucks, as they also rank 10th in Goals For (3.35). The same can't be said for the Predators because they're just outside of the bottom 10 in Goals For (2.82). That has us siding with the Jets tonight.

Each team will have a Vezina Trophy caliber goalie in net tonight with Connor Hellebuyck and Juuse Saros expected to start.

Admittedly, both goalies haven't been in their elite form as of yet. Hellebuyck has a -0.58 GSAx, and Saros is slightly above at 1.00. Still, these two know how to make a difference and make key stops, so they should cross each other out in that respect.

The model from numberFire has the Jets at a 62.37% likelihood of winning tonight.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.