NFL

NFL Win Totals: Can the Dolphins Secure Double-Digit Wins in 2024?

Skyler Carlin
Skyler Carlin@skyler_carlin
NFL Win Totals: Can the Dolphins Secure Double-Digit Wins in 2024?

The Miami Dolphins took yet another step forward under head coach Mike McDaniel during the 2023-24 NFL season, recording an impressive 11-6 record. While the Dolphins have lost in the Wild Card Round in back-to-back years across McDaniel's first two seasons, 11 wins is the most in franchise history since 2008.

Winning the AFC East and contending for a Super Bowl are among the goals for Miami entering the 2024-25 campaign. Tua Tagovailoa -- who is hoping to receive a long-term deal this offseason -- is at the center of discussion for a roster that certainly has the pieces to compete with the best teams in the league.

With training camps on the horizon, we can look at the Dolphins and other NFL win totals at FanDuel Sportsbook. Let's discuss Miami's odds for the upcoming season and whether or not they can achieve their win total.

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, and they may change after the article is published.

Miami Dolphins 2024 Win Total Odds

Dolphins Over/Under 9.5 Wins

  • Over: -122
  • Under: +100

Odds to Make the Playoffs: -134
Odds to Win the AFC East: +210
Odds to Win the AFC: +1200 (7th)
Super Bowl Odds: +2400 (tied for 12th)

Key Offseason Coaching Changes:

  • Anthony Weaver replaces Vic Fangio as defensive coordinator
  • Joe Barry hired as linebackers coach/run game coordinator
  • Brian Duker hired as pass game coordinator/secondary coach

Why Dolphins Could Win Over 9.5 Games

  • Tyreek Hill/Jaylen Waddle is an elite receiving duo
  • Tua Tagovailoa is coming off a career year
  • Mike McDaniel is becoming one of the best head coaches in football

It's safe to say that Tagovailoa's life is made exponentially easier by having a receiving duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Since joining the Dolphins in 2022, Hill has produced back-to-back seasons with 1,700-plus receiving yards, and he's combined for 20 receiving touchdowns over that span.

Hill currently has the shortest odds to win Offensive Player of the Year (+800).

Meanwhile, Waddle has begun his NFL career by registering three consecutive seasons of 72-pus receptions and 1,000-plus receiving yards. The speed that Hill and Waddle possess undoubtedly gives defensive coordinators headaches each week.

Many people are torn on the idea of Tagovailoa being a true difference-maker at the quarterback position. While Tagovailoa tossed a career-worst 14 interceptions a season ago, he also tallied career-best marks in completion percentage (69.3%), passing yards (4,624), and passing touchdowns (29).

Above all, Tagovailoa played in all 17 games for the Dolphins last year, making it the first time he's suited up in every game in a season. The pairing of Tagovailoa, Hill, Waddle, and McDaniel gives this offense a solid floor to build from.

McDaniel has evolved into one of the best head coaches in the NFL in a short amount of time. The offensive-minded coach built an offense in 2023-24 that deployed "cheat motions" and other effective plays, which became staples of other offenses throughout the league as the season progressed.

Will Miami be able to put it all together in 2024-25 to achieve 10-plus wins in back-to-back years for the first time since 2000-2001?

Why Dolphins Could Win Under 9.5 Games

  • How will the Dolphins/Tua fare in the latter part of the season?
  • Injuries to Bradley Chubb/Jaelan Phillips could hurt the defense
  • Losing Christian Wilkins could loom large in the trenches

The one thing that stands out in McDaniel's first two years at the helm is the fact the Dolphins have gotten off to fast starts each season. Miami began the 2022-2023 season with an 8-3 record before finishing with six losses in their final seven games (including the playoffs).

It was more of the same for the Dolphins in 2023-2024, earning a 9-3 record before losing four of their final six games. Some of the blame can be placed on the fact Tagovailoa is performing worse in the latter part of the season -- whether it be due to worse weather or other factors.

According to NextGenStats, Tagovailoa posted an impressive 0.17 expected points added per drop back and 52.4% passing success rate through Week 13 of the 2023-24 campaign. However, Tagovailoa would see his expected points added per drop back fall to 0.00 and his passing success rate decline to 44.9% in his final seven games.

In large part due to Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips, the Dolphins logged the fifth-best pressure rate (40.3%) and best sack rate (8.0%) in the NFL last season. Those metrics could be tough to replicate with Chubb and Phillips both recovering from season-ending injuries.

Along with Chubb and Phillips dealing with serious injuries, Miami lost Christian Wilkins in free agency to the Las Vegas Raiders. Therefore, the Dolphins could be without three of their top four sack-getters from last season to begin 2024-25.

While Miami went out and added veterans Calais Campbell and Shaquil Barrett this offseason -- and took Chop Robinson in this year's draft -- it remains to be seen if the pass-rushing unit will perform the same.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.