NFL Week 11 Betting Picks

Gabriel Santiago
Gabriel Santiago@gps_onthemic
NFL Week 11 Betting Picks

Undoubtedly, a fantastic tone was set for this week in the Thursday night AFC North affair between the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens. At that, I am chomping at the bit for more.

NFL Week 11 offers several interesting matchups but none as anticipated as the upcoming Monday Night Football contest that will also serve as a Super Bowl LVII rematch -- yes, the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs will get together again.

On Sunday, the Las Vegas Raiders -- who are an undefeated 2-0 with Antonio Pierce as interim head coach -- will make the cross-country trip to take on the Miami Dolphins. Additionally, the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns will face off in a game that has one of the lowest totals you'll ever witness for an NFL game.

No sense wasting any more time: let's dive into the Week 11 odds with an emphasis on scoping out the most valuable of Sunday's lines in traditional betting markets.

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

NFL Betting Picks (11/19/23)

Sunday's Full Slate

Remaining NFL Week 11 Matchups
Kickoff Time (ET)
Los Angeles Chargers at Green Bay Packers1 p.m.LAC
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars1 p.m.JAX
Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins1 p.m.MIA
Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers1 p.m.DAL
Arizona Cardnals at Houston Texans1 p.m.HOU
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns1 p.m.CLE
New York Giants at Washington Commanders1 p.m.WSH
View Full Table

Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins

  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS
  • Spread: MIA -12.5 (-115)
  • Moneyline: LV +590/MIA -850
  • Total: 46.5

Notably, "da Raiduhs" have won every game since firing Josh McDaniels and benching quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. Both interim head coach Pierce and rookie signal-caller Aidan O'Connell have been a breath of fresh air to the Silver & Black, but will things go as swimmingly in Miami versus the Dolphins this weekend?

For the 'Fins, they are still pacing the AFC East at 6-3 straight up (SU). In Miami's most recent showing, they lost to the defending champion Chiefs overseas in Frankfurt. However, the Dolphins have had a bye week between then and now -- expect their athletes to be refreshed at home in Week 11.

Las Vegas has certainly been reenergized by all the movement, but can some of their success be attributed to facing lower competition? Taking a bite out of the Big Apple, the Raiders defeated the New York Giants and New York Jets at home in consecutive weeks. Simply, perennial DPOY Maxx Crosby (59 tackles/9.5 sacks in 2023) and company will have a much more formidable challenge in Miami.

Best Bet: Dolphins -12.5 (-115)

I believe Miami can and will win the matchup on both sides of the football in this one. We know what the Dolphins can do on offense. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is tied for the NFL touchdown lead (19) right now, while Miami paces the league in total scoring (31.7 PPG). With speedsters Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle on hand, I don't think Vegas' secondary can keep up.

Across the field, O'Connell has a 2-1 record as a starter. Mind you, the rookie from Purdue hasn't exactly dazzled just yet -- he sports a 2:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio with a 63.5% completion clip. Also, O'Connell shows only 5.6 adjusted yards per attempt on 104 passes. In his first NFL start traveling back to the Eastern time zone, I am not high on AOC and the Vegas offense.

Laying 12.5 against the spread (ATS), I'll take the 'Fins to win by two touchdowns.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns

  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS
  • Spread: CLE -1.5 (-102)
  • Moneyline: PIT +104/CLE -122
  • Total: 32.5 (-120/-102)

Situated less than 140 miles apart, the Steelers and Browns harbor a rivalry as fierce as any. The "Turnpike War" as it is sometimes referred to, Pittsburgh and Cleveland have matched up in more head-to-head games (144) than any other original AFL teams. With meeting No. 145 this weekend, the Browns show as a slight favorite at home.

Arguably, Cleveland has dealt with more significant injuries than any other side. With Nick Chubb (knee) lost for the season back in Week 2, Deshaun Watson (shoulder) is the latest to go down for the year. The folks on the southern shores of Lake Erie just can't seem to catch any good luck.

In 2023, the Steelers very well could be the worst 6-3 team in NFL history. They are allowing 20.2 PPG, which is quite a few more points than they are scoring (17.3 PPG). Second-year signal-caller Kenny Pickett has yet to take off, seemingly stuck in third gear. His QBR (36.3) lands him 28th in the league, as Pickett sports a 3:2 TD-INT ratio.

Frankly, I can't say I love Pickett's chances in Cleveland against the top-ranked defense -- the Browns have surrendered only 242.7 yards per game this year.

Best Bet: Under 32.5 (-102)

Despite how low the bar is set in this contest, I believe we can still limbo under. From a broad scope, unders have largely been the favorable play in the totals market this year; they have cashed at a 57.6% rate so far. Considering that Cleveland is going with a rookie under center in Dorian Thompson-Robinson (making his second NFL start), we are likely to see a heavy emphasis on the run.

When it comes to defense, we know that both Pittsburgh and Cleveland can get after the quarterback, as both sides are in the top 12 in sacks. The Steelers have 2021 Defensive Player of the Year in T.J. Watt while the Browns are led by Myles Garrett -- the latter is the current favorite at FanDuel Sportsbook to win this year's DPOY Award with +140 odds. Watt is next in line for his second at +230.

No snow is expected this weekend in Northeast Ohio, but temperatures are forecasted in the low 40s near kickoff. That could slow these offenses down just a tad. Considering the defenses already have the upper hand from a talent perspective, I dare to go under 32.5 total points (priced favorably at -102 odds).

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams

  • Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS
  • Spread: SEA -1
  • Moneyline: SEA -108/LAR -108
  • Total: 46.5 (-115/-105)

An NFC West affair from Southern California, the Los Angeles Rams will host the Seattle Seahawks for their second of two regular season meetings. In the first matchup (Week 1), the Rams upset the Seahawks at home, leaving the Emerald City with a 30-13 victory. Ten weeks later, can Seattle return the favor in Inglewood?

The Seahawks sit at 6-3 SU while LAR reciprocates at 3-6. Most recently, the Rams have fallen into a rut, losing each of their past three games. Meanwhile, Seattle has won six of eight bids since their early season loss to Los Angeles.

The Rams are coming off of their bye week, which gave quarterback Matthew Stafford extra time to rest his injured thumb -- one that kept him out of the recent loss against the Green Bay Packers. Either way, Geno Smith has been the more accurate passer of the two signal-callers in 2023. They both have committed seven interceptions, but Smith has a higher completion clip (65.3%), rating (82.0), and touchdown count (11).

Best Bet: Seahawks ML (-108)

At FanDuel Sportsbook, Seattle is favored by just one point ATS, but the moneylines are currently set at -108 odds for both sides. Logically, that pushes me into a play on the Seahawks SU rather than laying and leaving myself more vulnerable to a push.

I hear the folks who are pointing to Seattle's Week 1 loss against the Rams, but it does seem the Seahawks have improved on offense since then. They average 22.2 PPG in 2023 (14th), and rookie receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba has begun to take on a bigger role, further complementing playmakers D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.

Of course, what will Stafford look like dealing with a thumb issue? The 15-year NFL vet has proven time and again to be tough as nails, but the thumb is arguably the most important digit in terms of passing a football.

On numberFire, the game projections estimate a winning score of 23.09-22.88 in favor of Seattle. It might be splitting hairs, but I like the road side to avenge that early-season loss this Sunday in L.A.

If you're interested in making a parlay bet, the Sunday Funday Same Game Parlay 30% Profit Boost is eligible for any Week 11 NFL game on Sunday (11/19), and your boost can be applied to any SGP/SGP+ wager of three or more legs. For all stipulations, visit FanDuel Sportsbook's website.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.