NFL Survivor Picks for Week 7: Another Good Spot to Pick on the Panthers

NFL survivor pools are an interesting way to have some fun during the season, and this weekly article is here to help you stay alive deep into the season.

Based on numberFire's NFL survivor matrix, here are some of the best NFL survivor picks for Week 7.

All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

NFL Survivor Picks for Week 7

Best Picks

Washington Commanders

numberFire's survivor pool analysis remained scorching last week, delivering six correct selections whether you ate the chalk or dodged it. A great week for favorites against the spread (ATS) will do that, though.

This is its official recommendation on the matrix this week -- and a darn good one to me, too. The Washington Commanders are -375 moneyline favorites (78.9% implied) to get back in the column after a one-score loss in the "Battle of the Beltway".

It's because the Carolina Panthers' honeymoon with Andy Dalton is officially over after three straight losses, but I'd argue the problem has much sooner been nF's fourth-worst schedule adjusted defense ceding at least 34 points in every game on the streak.

Washington's top-ranked overall offense (and rush offense) was built to demolish a weak defense like this, and they'll potentially add Brian Robinson (knee) back into the lineup.

numberFire gives the Commies an 84.6% chance to win on Sunday, which offsets a pretty hefty pick rate expected (39.1%). There just won't be a better spot to deploy their shaky defense all year.

Atlanta Falcons

In terms of adjusted win probability for pick rate, the Commanders aren't at the top of this week's overall rankings. That is the Atlanta Falcons.

Atlanta has overcome three straight NFC South foes with its only setbacks of 2024 coming of the one-score variety to the Kansas City Chiefs and Pittsburgh Steelers in Kirk Cousins' very first start.

The defense (17th in nF's schedule-adjusted rankings) hasn't been what the team hoped when allocating assets to Matt Judon and Justin Simmons in the summer, but the team is finally making good on its top-10 picks at skill positions with the algorithm's 13th-ranked offense.

They'll host the Seattle Seahawks after a long voyage for Seattle. The 12s' hot start against three teams projected for top-10 picks was nice, but they've really come crashing back to Earth after allowing at least 29 points to their last three opponents, including the New York Giants sans Malik Nabers.

If you're playing toward a contrarian angle, the Falcons' high projected win probability (72.3%) and low pick rate (1.3%) is perfect. The matrix is just looking ahead to a Week 18 home date with the Panthers and angling toward keeping the Dirty Birds in its back pocket.

Los Angeles Rams

numberFire is showing an exorbitant amount of confidence that the Las Vegas Raiders are terrible.

They're entrusting their own very worst schedule-adjusted defense, the Los Angeles Rams, as a podium option in survivor pools this weekend. After Las Vegas' 32-13 loss to Pittsburgh that was more lopsided than the score implies, it's easy to see why.

The Raiders are seemingly stuck with Aidan O'Connell -- and likely happy about it to secure a top pick. O'Connell's -0.04 expected points added per drop back (EPA/db) are only an improvement over Gardner Minshew because of improving the team's sack rate (4.0%) compared to with Minshew (9.3%). Neither are good at football.

Meanwhile, we know the Rams' 14th-ranked offense has some level of consistency behind Kyren Williams, and it sounds like Cooper Kupp (knee) is trending toward a return as the team has earned that ranking without him a vast majority of the season.

I can't blame anyone streaming survivor pools against Vegas right now. nF's projected win probability (71.1%) and low projected pick rate (4.6%) make for a darn solid option. A road date with the New England Patriots in Week 11 is really the only other projected spot to deploy L.A.

Digging Deeper

Do you want -- or need -- to use other squads than the teams listed above? Here are some other options.

Buffalo Bills

After a week for the public in betting markets, the Buffalo Bills might be the choice if you're projecting that continue.

Buffalo was among the 9-0 ATS road favorites in Week 6 after a 23-20 win that came down to the New York Jets' own blunders, but there's no doubting the Bills' prowess at the top of numberFire's overall power rankings. That's come with the model's 5th-ranked offense (adjusting for schedule) and 14th-ranked defense -- and an MVP candidate at quarterback.

That sort of profile going up against Will Levis at home does seem like a solid pick, right? The Tennessee Titans are 0-4 in Levis' four completed games, and he leads the NFL in picks (7). Tennessee's sixth-ranked defense is just a cause for concern that we get one of those random Josh Allen showings with turnovers and inefficiency, leading to a game closer than you'd hope late.

numberFire isn't entirely out on the Bills behind a 62.9% adjusted win rate (sixth-best of the week), but their 31.2% projected pick rate is an issue. We'd also like to save them for Week 16 against the Patriots if possible.

Indianapolis Colts

Week 7 has unearthed a few contenders for streaming, and the Miami Dolphins are the surprise team fitting that description this season.

A team we expected to win with shootouts actually ranks as numberFire's 31st-ranked offense and 8th-ranked defense through the first six weeks of the season in light of Tua Tagovailoa's head injury from Week 2. His return could fix the former, but is the latter sustainable given preseason expectations? This will be a good week to find out.

The Indianapolis Colts' status as nF's 8th-ranked offense is a bit shaky considering Joe Flacco (0.11 EPA/db) is the reason for it, and he's confirmed as heading to the bench in favor of Anthony Richardson (-0.13) this weekend. Richardson's added rush element could jump start a rushing offense with just 179 total rushing yards in two games since Jonathan Taylor (ankle) went down, though.

On defense, the Colts are 22nd in nF's schedule-adjusted metrics, as well.

We've got good options with our first trio; there's just too much uncertainty here for my taste despite numberFire's healthy projected win probability (69.0%) and low projected pick rate (1.5%) for Indianapolis.

Jacksonville Jaguars

If you've made it this far in a pool, who could you possibly want to trust to keep it going more than Doug Pederson's 1-5 Jacksonville Jaguars, right?

Pederson is certainly a betting favorite to be canned as Jacksonville's head coach if he somehow loses to the New England Patriots representing the "home" side in their second consecutive week across the pond in London. numberFire sees the Jags as the fourth-worst team in the NFL -- ahead of only the Pats, Panthers, and Cleveland Browns.

With New England's standing as a bottom-eight team on both sides of the ball, you do have to favor Jacksonville in this weekend's game when they've shown pulses of offense against weaker defensive units. That's especially true with reduced travel. FanDuel is doing just that, setting them as a 5.5-point favorite and 71.4% implied to win on the moneyline.

numberFire isn't that high on their win probability (62.8%), but a low projected pick rate (3.1%) is appealing -- as is the fact I can't imagine trotting out the Jaguars in any other situation again in 2024.

As part of the ugly game we play here, I'd rank Jacksonville as this week's fourth-best option.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.