NFL MVP Betting: Will Patrick Mahomes Win It Again in 2023?

Last season was another year, another Super Bowl appearance for Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes.

The 27-year-old has led the Chiefs to at least the AFC Championship Game in each of his five seasons as KC's starting quarterback, and he has helped them take home a Super Bowl title in two of their three appearances in the big game.

Fresh off of his second MVP season, Mahomes heads into the 2023 campaign tied for the best odds to win the MVP award, per the NFL MVP odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Mahomes shares +700 odds with Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen and Cincinnati Bengals signal-caller Joe Burrow. Each of those three have firmly established themselves among the league’s elite passers over the past few seasons, but Mahomes might actually be on another level entirely.

Breaking Down Mahomes' Case

How exactly does someone lose a game-changing wideout -- Tyreek Hill, who went on to finish second in the league in receiving yards with the Miami Dolphins -- and still lead the league in passing yards (5,250) and touchdowns (41) the following year? Only Mahomes is capable of answering that question.

The addition of Hill to Miami’s offense helped turn Tua Tagovailoa into one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league. The loss of Hill from KC's attack seemingly did nothing to impact Mahomes’ output as a passer. At this point, it might be easier to ask what has to happen for Mahomes to not be in the MVP in any given season.

A positive for Mahomes is that Associated Press (AP) voters seem to have little issue voting for repeat MVPs. Peyton Manning won the award five times, Aaron Rodgers four times, Brett Favre three times in a row, and so on. Being the best quarterback in the league in a given season has been borderline analogous to being voted as the MVP. We won’t have to worry about voters growing tired of putting Mahomes at the top of their ballots yet again this season.

Only two players have won the honors in three seasons between Mahomes’ first win in 2018 and his 2022 MVP award: Rodgers and Lamar Jackson. Rodgers’ team won 13 games in each of his two MVP campaigns in that span while he threw for a total of 85 touchdowns to just 9 interceptions over the two years, and Jackson’s season was so dominant that no other player even received an MVP vote in 2019.

The AP implemented a change to its voting system in 2022, allowing voters to utilize a ranked-choice system to include other names in the process. Mahomes still garnered 48 out of 50 first-place votes a year ago, with Jalen Hurts and Allen receiving the other first-place nods.

By the odds, Burrow and Allen appear to be Mahomes’ early competition for the award in 2023. But neither quarterback has ever thrown for more yards or for more touchdowns than Mahomes in a single season in their careers. Allen has capped out at 4,544 passing yards and 37 passing touchdowns, while Burrow has a personal record of 4,611 passing yards and 34 passing touchdowns.

Mahomes’ worst marks over the last three years -- since Burrow entered the league and Allen became the passer he is today -- are 4,740 passing yards and 37 passing touchdowns. Mahomes’ worst outputs have been as good or better than his peers’ best numbers.

Barring injury, it’s hard to envision much changing for Mahomes this season if the loss of Hill didn’t seem to impact his overall production. The team mostly retained its same core group of pass-catchers from 2022 outside of losing JuJu Smith-Schuster and adding former SMU receiver Rashee Rice in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft.

Mahomes has averaged an unreal 17-game pace of 5,155 yards, 41 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions per season in his five years since taking over as the starter for the Chiefs, and there’s little reason to think he’ll stray too far from those averages this year.

Maybe the toughest challenge Mahomes will face this year in his bid for a third MVP might actually be from his own team. If the Chiefs take a step back as a team and don't finish with one of the league's elite records, that would likely hurt Mahomes' MVP chances. Since 2010, only one MVP winner has played on a team that won fewer than 11 games -- Adrian Peterson’s 2012 Minnesota Vikings won 10 games, finishing second in their own division.

However, we shouldn't worry too much about that. The Chiefs’ win total prop is set at 11.5 wins with a -128 price on the over, per the NFL win total odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Only one other team (San Francisco 49ers) has a win total prop above 10.5, so Kansas City is fully expected to stay among the NFL's elite in 2023.

At +700 odds that tie him as the favorite, Mahomes checks all the boxes you could want in an MVP candidate.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.