NBA MVP Odds Update: Embiid Back in the Driver's Seat

We have nearly reached the three-month mark in the 2023-2024 NBA season. Some players are playing some of the best basketball of their careers, putting them in a decent spot to win the NBA MVP Trophy.

With every team playing around half of their games so far, let's take a look at the latest NBA MVP odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Here are the players with the 11 shortest odds (there is a four-way tie for the eighth-best odds) to win this year's MVP and a breakdown of the top contenders.

NBA MVP Odds

Joel Embiid (+190)

Joel Embiid is the reigning NBA MVP after winning the award last season with 33.1 points, 10.2 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.7 blocks, and 1.2 steals per game on 54.8% shooting. The two-time scoring champ has taken his game to another level this season in his first year playing under head coach Nick Nurse.

While recording a league-high -- and career-high -- 38.3% usage rate, Embiid is tallying career-best marks in points (35.0), assists (5.9), and steals (1.2) per game on 53.6% shooting from the field. Embiid is also shooting a career-high 11.9 free throws per game and making them at a career-best 88.6% clip.

The two-time scoring champ has the fourth-most win shares (6.7) and the second-highest box plus/minus (12.4) in the NBA. With Embiid leading the way, the Philadelphia 76ers have the third-best record in the Eastern Conference at 28-13.

In the league's new collective bargaining agreement that was agreed to before this season, it states that players must play at least 65 games to be eligible for end-of-season awards. Embiid has already missed 10 games this season, so he can afford to miss a maximum of only seven more games if he wants to win back-to-back MVPs.

Amid Embiid's impressive run in the first half of the season, the 76ers are a top-six team in offensive efficiency (120.9) and defensive efficiency (112.6), via numberFire's metrics. If the 76ers remain one of the best teams in the league and Embiid can avoid missing more time, then he is on track to become the third consecutive player to win NBA MVP in back-to-back seasons.

Nikola Jokic (+240)

The last time we took a look at the NBA MVP odds, Embiid and Nikola Jokic were co-favorites to win the award at +250 odds. Embiid has widened the gap as the front runner, but Jokic shouldn't be neglected among the favorites given how easy he makes everything look when he's playing.

The reigning Finals MVP is tallying 26.1 points, 11.9 rebounds, 9.1 assists, 1.1 steals, and a career-high 1.0 blocks per game through the first 44 games for the Denver Nuggets. Jokic is producing stellar efficiency numbers for a center, converting 58.7% of his shots from the field and 35% of his three-point attempts.

Availability hasn't been a concern for Jokic throughout his career, as he's never missed more than 13 games in a season. The five-time All-Star has been sidelined for just one game this season, and he leads the league in win shares (9.4) and box plus/minus (14.2).

When it comes to head-to-head matchups, Jokic and the Nuggets recently lost to Embiid and the 76ers in an exciting matchup. At the same time, Jokic immediately followed that up with a near triple-double to hand the Boston Celtics their first home loss of the season.

Even though he isn't the most athletic or flashy player, Jokic's contributions for the Nuggets shouldn't be understated. There is decent value in taking Jokic to win NBA MVP, especially with Embiid needing to avoid missing eight more games to be eligible for the award.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+330)

Earlier this month, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander trailed Luka Doncic for the third-best odds to win MVP this season. The mesmerizing guard for the Oklahoma City Thunder has now easily supplanted Doncic for the third-best odds because of his performance on the court and the fact that Doncic has missed time.

The former 11th overall pick received first-team All-NBA honors last season with 31.4 points, 5.5 assists, 4.8 rebounds, 1.6 steals, and 1.0 blocks per game on an efficient 51% shooting. Gilgeous-Alexander is even better this season, averaging 31.1 points, 6.3 assists, 5.6 rebounds, 2.2 steals, and 0.8 blocks per game on 54.9% shooting.

While making strides in his game, Gilgeous-Alexander has aided the Thunder in posting the second-best record (29-13) in the Western Conference. The Thunder are also logging the fourth-best offensive rating (119.8) and the sixth-best defensive rating (111.7) in the NBA.

It is Gilgeous-Alexander -- and not Embiid -- who boasts the second-most win shares (8.7) in the league behind Jokic. The 25-year-old guard is also recording the third-highest box plus/minus (9.8) at the fourth-highest usage rate (32.6%).

The NBA MVP award has favored centers and forwards in recent years, with James Harden being the last guard to take home the hardware in 2017-2018. Despite that being the case, Gilgeous-Alexander could become even more of a contender for MVP if the Thunder can secure the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference.

Luka Doncic (+850)

Doncic's status as one of the premier offensive players in the NBA remains strong this season. The Slovenian guard is recording career-best numbers in points (33.6) and assists (9.2) per game while converting a career-high 37.6% of his shots beyond the arc despite also attempting a career-high 10.4 three-pointers per game.

There's no denying the impact that Doncic makes on the offensive end of the floor, evidenced by him owning the fourth-best offensive box plus/minus (8.4) and 43.1% assist rate at the second-highest usage rate (36.2%) in the NBA. Meanwhile, Doncic is the only player within the top-four odds to win MVP that isn't top six in offensive and defensive win shares.

On top of that, Doncic is the lone top-four candidate who isn't currently on a team that is a top-three seed in his respective conference. The Dallas Mavericks are tied with the Phoenix Suns with a 24-18 record and are the No. 6 seed in the Western Conference.

The Mavericks don't deploy a particularly deep roster, and we've seen Dallas sputter when Doncic isn't active. Dallas has tallied a 3-4 record this season in the seven games Doncic has been sidelined.

The last player to win MVP on a team with a win percentage lower than 58.5% was Russell Westbrook in 2016-2017 when he averaged a triple-double with the Thunder. So if Doncic wants to carve out a better case to win his first MVP award, he'll need to stay healthy down the stretch and help the Mavericks climb the standings.

Do you think you know which NBA players will take home hardware this season? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA award odds market to bet any major season-long awards with America's Number One Sportsbook.

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