NBA MVP Betting: Can Jayson Tatum Take the Necessary Steps to Contend?

Award voting in the NBA is plain weird.

In what I'd classify as "The LeBron James Precendent," the league's MVP trophy isn't handed out to the best player in the league by default. There's now an entire package that goes into winning the award, including premium statistics, some requirement of team-level winning, and the right narrative.

It's important to understand that because, in a vacuum, there are realistically only a handful of guys who could contend to be the league's best player and/or put up the league's best statistical seasons. They're seven-foot-tall freaks who print regular-season triple-doubles. Yet, there are exceptions in recent years to believe we could see this award go to a wing player or a guard if the right circumstances hit.

In 2021, Stephen Curry and Chris Paul both made the top five in voting. In 2022, Devin Booker finished fourth as the lead guard on the league's best team. In 2023, Jayson Tatum and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander were top-five vote-getters behind the seven-foot trio in front of them.

As a 6'10" forward, Tatum, of course, is the only player on this list with the requisite size to rival the contributions of some of the award's favorites on the glass. On one of the league's best projected teams, can the Boston Celtics' franchise player make his dream a reality and win an MVP award?

At +800, he's listed as the fourth-likeliest option in the entire league, per the NBA MVP odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Are those odds too short, or should we consider him a true contender?

Apples and Oranges

In some ways, it should help Jayson Tatum that he's not going to be expected to put up Nikola Jokic's numbers to contend for an MVP award. He finished fourth last year averaging just 30.1 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 4.6 assists across 72 games.

The Denver Nuggets' star center is the clear favorite (+430) to win, and he's been the most likely winner for four straight seasons, according to the historical model at Basketball Reference. However, in 2023, Jokic lost the award to Joel Embiid despite superior statistics in what can largely be chalked up to voter fatigue after Jokic had won back-to-back awards in 2021 and 2022.

Fresh off his first MVP trophy, there is a scenario where the media wants to re-crown their "best player in the world," and an average Jokic season of a near-triple-double with excellent efficiency has to be expected at this point. However, there are numerous situations where, if you're betting on anyone else, you're assuming Jokic has encountered an obstacle.

That obstacle could be a lack of competitive games to boost his numbers. The Denver Nuggets are the clear consensus favorites to win the Western Conference, and that led to a career-low 69 games played in 2022-23 for their big man. They rested him for June -- ultimately proven right by winning it all. With that ultimate goal in mind, does Denver further opt for maintenance over winning the conference? It's possible.

Also, knocking on wood while acknowledging the mathematical unlikeliness of this happening, Jokic has also never faced an extended injury in his entire career. This field opens up considerably should his first come in 2023-24. No one's rooting for that, but it's worth considering when placing a wager.

To consider Tatum, you're largely denying the statistical production Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo can put forth in all areas for one reason or another. Embiid might be less of a concern after another postseason dud following his coronation. It's a decision you have to make before betting J.T.

Best on the Best

Tatum's case gets most interesting considering where he can rival Jokic. The Celtics are expected to be as dominant in the Eastern Conference as Denver is out west.

Per the NBA Finals odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, Boston is the +470 favorite to win it all this year. To be in a position to do so, the C's are likely staring at a top-three seed coming off back-to-back years with at least 50 wins.

All but two MVPs since the year 2010 have come from players on top-three seeds, and both of the exceptions were largely seen as mistakes in hindsight. Your team has to have a certain level of competence to be in the running, and you've got to be the lead player.

Without much doubt, Tatum is the Celtics' lead player. He led the team in minutes per game (36.9 MPG) and usage rate (33.1%) en route to his first season averaging at least 30 points per game. With continual yearly increases, he'll also look to break 9.0 rebounds and 5.0 assists for the first time in his career in 2023-24.

No one is particularly doubting Tatum's place atop the pecking order in Boston, but there probably will need to be more of a gap for him to take the next step toward MVP contention. Jaylen Brown still occupied a 31.5% usage rate next to him in a "duo" setting, and the marquee addition of the offseason came when the C's snagged Kristaps Porzingis, who occupied a 28.1% usage rate for the Washington Wizards last season.

Is there a world where Tatum can put the team on his back in an unprecedented way? There is, but it's complicated.

Zing and the Zang

Some might see Jaylen Brown's new, enormous max contract as an investment to his production -- and away from Tatum as "the guy" -- but the reality is that Brown, a former All-Star, is a max player who simply got what was due to a player of that caliber.

The problem is that J.B. hasn't really always lived up to that billing. In fact, Brown's 2022-23 season was a letdown with a huge decrease in three-point percentage (33.5%) and overall stagnation on the glass (6.9 rebounds per game) and as a playmaker (3.5 assists per game). Realistically, Brown's contract was the going rate more than an omen that he'll take on lead duties of any sort despite now making more than Tatum.

I think the true -- and fair -- uncertainty of a Tatum MVP case has to be surrounding Porzingis. Boston's next-highest starter in usage rate behind Tatum and Brown last year was Derrick White at 18.1%. Porzingis has never fallen short of a 24.0% rate in seven NBA seasons, so he's inevitably going to take shots out of Tatum's hands. He'll obviously contribute on the boards, as well.

However, there will be a trade-off to potentially boost Tatum's case with K.P. in the fold. First, former Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart was the departing player for Porzingis, so if Boston can once again hold a top-five spot in defensive rating as they have each of the past two seasons, Tatum will receive additional credit. He's not seen as a high-level player on that end by all, but coming off a career-high mark in steals plus blocks per game (1.8), it's becoming more well-known what a high-level player he is on that end.

Secondarily, if Boston does go on to win the Eastern Conference or have its best regular-season record, Porzingis likely won't contribute at an astronomical rate. The well-traveled top pick simply can't stay on the court.

In a contract year, Porzingis logged 65 games last season, but it's easy to remember a time when that wasn't the case. He played just 94 total games in the previous three seasons to the point where he was dumped to the Wizards for cap purposes from a team that ended up in the Western Conference Finals.

There's no doubt adding the big man into the mix increases Boston's overall ceiling with his presence as a rim protector and his sizable offensive contributions, but trading Smart out of the lineup for him could have entirely shaken what made this core special.

A Motley Crew

For no two-week period of his career has Tatum's usage spiked to the 40.0% or above area where Jokic, Embiid, and Giannis live when their key teammates are off the court. Now, with less overall depth on the team, we may see that opportunity for him -- at long last -- where he can put up some of the monstrous raw numbers they do in sublime matchups.

The C's depth chart is pretty ugly behind their starting five. Reigning Sixth Man of the Year Malcolm Brogdon and the oft-injured Robert Williams are the key pieces, but Payton Pritchard, Sam Hauser, and Oshae Brissett are the remaining listed players in what is presumably the Celtics' top 10. Yikes.

Boston is -- no doubt -- putting plenty of faith in Tatum to be available and effective, and that is something he'll have over most MVP candidates. Tatum has played at least 74 games in each of the last two seasons, which is more than any of the top-three MVP vote-getters from last season. Brown hasn't played more than 67, so that's another key area where Tatum edges in front of his co-star, too.

Obviously, there's a downside. In order to access this usage to put up these numbers, it's also a possibility that Tatum can't handle the role to continue winning games. Tatum went 18-10 in games that Brown didn't play last season, and that winning percentage extrapolated to a full season would still produce around a 52-win team. But that was last season with a significantly better supporting roster.

If Brown and Porzingis were to miss extended time, J.T. would face uncharted waters that could win him an MVP trophy, but it also could expose his limitations as a player.

Are We Forcing It?

When evaluating Jayson Tatum's MVP case, I expected to find a better candidate from the guy who finished fourth in the league's voting last year. However, it's worth remembering he didn't get a first-place vote last year.

My colleague, Annie Nader, looked at a key stat line threshold when examining Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as a candidate, and it's possible Tatum could reach it. He'd need 32 PPG, 6 assists per game (APG), and for the Celtics to win at least 45 games. That's a threshold he could meet after averaging 4.6 APG in 2022-23, but it would be quite the explosion as a playmaker.

That's somewhat the bottom line with Tatum. He's an exceptional, talented scorer who has proven to put games on his back in the postseason, but that might not manifest itself in a regular-season MVP considering the triple-double getters that have dominated this award in recent seasons.

With Jaylen Brown in the fold, Tatum may never have extended periods with a usage rate approaching 40.0% that he'd need to put up ridiculous games as a scorer. Porzingis also raises the team's ceiling in the postseason, but it's quite plausible he's out of the lineup for extended periods, and the team traded most of its deep core for the chance to acquire him.

Tatum is also a solid defender, but he's not the complete, top-five-in-the-league force that would earn him significant points in this area. In fact, that's why I pondered whether Anthony Davis is a better outright dart than Tatum. Similarly contending with a co-star, Davis makes up for his lack of playmaking with a potential league-best impact on the defensive end. He was also +2900 on FanDuel Sportsbook when making that case; Tatum is a much shorter +800.

J.T.'s best argument is that he's indisputably the best player on a team with the NBA's highest win total (54.5). The problem is that this award is trending away from that being the default criteria; Giannis won this award on the league's top overall seed in 2019 and 2020, but Antetokounmpo's counting stats were also absurd. In the past three years, Jokic and Embiid have won it for teams that didn't even amass a top-two seed in their respective conferences.

At the fourth-shortest number on the board, I'm not sure the juice is worth the squeeze here. A lot would have to go in Tatum's favor in order to boost his numbers to contend in a vacuum with what the league's best will produce, and a thinner Celtics core might also inhibit his team's ability to put up an undeniable amount of victories.

Do you think you know which NBA players will take home hardware this season? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA award odds market to bet any major season-long awards with America's Number One Sportsbook.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.