NBA MVP Betting: Will Anthony Davis Finally Put It All Together in 2023–24?

"I called that" isn't a phrase I hear too often when talking about betting the NBA's MVP trophy.

It is difficult to identify the exact winner in the preseason, but almost everyone is picking from the same short list of contenders that genuinely have the ability, opportunity, and -- in some cases -- requisite voter approval to win the award in a given year. Each of the last eight award went to someone with top-10 odds from the preseason.

Therefore, we don't really hand out "credit" for picking an MVP in the NBA when everyone is on the same page. Still, what a legendary prospect it would be to call a true underdog for the award -- and I'm going to try.

When it comes to the aforementioned ability, opportunity, and voter approval elements discussed, Anthony Davis of the Los Angeles Lakers has all of them, but he sits at +2900 to win the award, per FanDuel Sportsbook's 2023-24 NBA MVP odds.

Those are 11th-best odds on the board for a player that, if gifted a full season of health, wouldn't shock anyone -- from a talent perspective -- to win his first league MVP. Is this the year Davis can stay healthy to win it? Why?

The Polar Bear in Charge

If you're evaluating a player to win the 2023-24 NBA MVP award, you've got to gauge their chances to personally dethrone Nikola Jokic.

Coming off his first NBA Finals MVP with the Denver Nuggets, Jokic is the +430 favorite to win it all for a third time in four years. According to Basketball Reference's historical model, he was 57.1% likely to win last year's MVP if not for voter fatigue. He's become the obstacle that Davis' now-teammate LeBron James was in the early 2000s. Like James, Jokic's incredible bill of health has allowed him to play at least 70 games in every NBA season except one.

However, in a season where the Nuggets were the top seed, the 69 games that Jokic played in 2022-23 were indeed the fewest of his career. He's also never dealt with a major injury into his age-28 season, which is quite fortunate. While there's an outcome that Jokic returns to a voluminous schedule in a quest to take back his throne, there's also a possibility the favorites to win the West rest him as much -- or more -- than they did in 2022-23.

Frankly, as was the case with James, Jokic has now entered a pantheon where his June performance is likely more important than his December efforts. That could open up the regular-season MVP by default.

It doesn't hurt Davis' potential claim to dethrone Jokic that he'll have ample opportunity as one of the best defenders in the NBA to limit "The Joker" in head-to-head matchups. The two open the season in Denver and play two more head-to-head matchups from the same conference.

I know it shouldn't matter how Davis and Jokic fare against each other, but Joel Embiid's January performance where he cooked Jokic for 47 points and 18 rebounds last year was absolutely a factor to Embiid winning the 2022-23 MVP award. The fact that A.D. has a chance to make a statement in the first game of the season means these odds, if you agree, are vital to snag before the opener.

It's Showtime

Of even more importance than the first contest of the season, Davis and the Lakers have a sublime chance to unseat the Nuggets as the top seed in the Western Conference, which would be quite the nod in his direction if it did come down to this duo.

L.A. blew up their roster at last year's trading deadline and became one of the best teams in the NBA. In fact, Los Angeles' +4.4 net rating after the deadline trailed only the Golden State Warriors (+5.0) in the West. Denver got off to a red-hot start but coasted to a +0.9 net rating in the second half, which also was partly responsible for Jokic's tumble out of the MVP lead.

Davis was a huge part of that. With the second-highest usage rate on the team in that stretch (27.2%) behind James (31.8%), A.D. also recorded 0.19 defensive win shares (fourth in the NBA) while pulling down 13.8 rebounds per 36 minutes to Jokic's 13.7.

While he'll never equal Jokic in the playmaking department, Jokic will also never produce a top-five defensive impact. This year, Davis has the fourth-best odds to win the NBA Defensive Player of the Year award (+1000) with Jokic among those buried at +11000.

This summer, the Lakers improved their roster even further. While keeping core pieces like Austin Reaves, D'Angelo Russell, and Rui Hachimura, they also added Gabe Vincent, Taurean Prince, and Christian Wood to bolster their regular season depth.

Los Angeles snuck into the West's seventh seed last season, but they'll need to likely be a top-three seed for Davis to be in contention. Only two winners since 2010 played on teams outside of their conference's top-three seeds. They'll be in the running if the fourth-best odds to win the NBA's Western Conference (+750) are any indication.

The Star of the Show

Realistically, no one is doubting Davis' talent nor his impact on winning. He had a better net rating (+11.6) than James (+10.9) on the Lakers' 2020 championship squad in the playoffs, but part of playing with the greatest to ever do it is that Davis hasn't gotten the supreme credit for L.A.'s recent winning. Of course, James won that 2020 NBA Finals MVP.

As James heads into his age-39 season, that's almost certainly changing now. LeBron's availability has wavered as he's over two decades into an NBA career. He's not played more than 56 games in any of the last three seasons. Now, we'll get to Davis' availability, which is among the reasons L.A. has tanked in recent years, but James' decline is a notable and predictable trend as he cruises toward 40. It's significantly less likely to reverse in 2023-24.

James has quietly -- and not-so-subtly -- acknowledged this. Not only did he tell the media the Lakers are Davis' team now, but A.D. was also the team's leader in FiveThirtyEight's RAPTOR metric by 3.5 wins above replacement. Austin Reaves also tallied a better mark than the "King".

Further, Davis' top-five presence overall in RAPTOR for the 2022-23 season is another massive note that the 29-to-1 odds behind Davis' MVP candidacy are significantly too long. Three of the top-five RAPTOR leaders are Jokic, Embiid, and Luka Doncic at +700 or shorter to win the award. The other is Jimmy Butler, who made most of his hay in the playoffs and sits at 50-to-1 to win the award.

Similar to a guy like Kawhi Leonard, Butler's noted knee management program will likely exclude him from contention for a regular-season MVP, and, I'll admit, many feel that way about Davis' injury history. There's reason for optimism, though.

Putting in the Work

One of the league's worst kept secrets was that the Lakers weren't exactly thrilled with Anthony Davis' offseason last year -- and likely all of them during his L.A. tenure. Davis admitted to going months without picking up a basketball, and it's clearly been a recent trend if recognized nowhere else but his jumpshot:

Davis was never a prolific three-point shooter, but a 61.0 TS% in 2019-20 (the bubble year) while shooting nearly two a game does show a ceiling for that type of ability. The reason he's improved his splits is simply eliminating jumpshots altogether; he recorded just 2.9 attempts per game beyond 15 feet last season.

It has just vanished in these recent, injury-plagued seasons to the point where he's not even trying, and that does significantly cap his upside for an MVP to put up points every night. However, A.D. has clearly had a phenomenal summer. Both fans and teammates alike are pretty stunned by an inarguable physical transformation that has been applauded by general manager Rob Pelinka and others.

A.D. has long had a physique and a reputation that didn't match his prime years with the New Orleans Pelicans. Not only is it possible the offseason work has refocused his jumper, but it'll help him with truly his largest obstacle -- staying on the court.

Davis has only topped 56 games played once with the Lakers after playing at least 60 in every season for the Pels before his last, which was the infamous holdout season that led to a trade. His high-water mark in L.A. was the 2019-20 season where L.A. won the title in the bubble, Davis played in 62 games, and his shooting splits were fantastic.

It largely goes without saying that if Davis' physical transformation can vault him into the realm of playing 65-75 games with the other MVP candidates, he'll finally be in contention for this award. Make no mistake that he's a longshot solely because of his injury history, but the market might not have adjusted properly to what has clearly been a great summer for "The Brow".

A Direct Comparison

When healthy, Anthony Davis is one of the two best two-way players in the NBA.

Giannis Antetokounmpo has a Defensive Player of the Year award at his house with his known impact for the Milwaukee Bucks, but there really aren't any other players in the league that can boast a hefty usage rate, an efficient scoring outlook, and a top-10 defensive impact while playing a sizable chunk of the games. Guys like Kawhi Leonard and Jimmy Butler could if that was the ultimate goal, but their injury management programs are well-established at this point.

Antetokounmpo is +500 to win the 2023-24 NBA MVP award, but I see him and Davis similarly -- right down to the fact both are poor three-point shooters. Giannis provides a bit more in the playmaking department, but there's more than "a bit" of a gap between the two's odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.

It directly comes back to Davis' extensive -- and risky -- injury history, but A.D. has often been hurt with Los Angeles following rumors of a suboptimal offseason. As he's clearly taken this summer to get his body right, Davis might have a chance to eclipse 65 games played for the first time with the Lakers, which would put him right in the neighborhood of the 2022-23 MVP finalists.

When on the court, A.D. proved to have a top-five impact by RAPTOR, and he'll be the clear top option on one of the Western Conference's best teams. While LeBron James is still around and will see quite a bit of usage, his days a fellow MVP candidate -- basically excluding the duo from true contention for the award -- are over.

If controlling for a 70-game season from all top candidates, Davis has as good of an argument as any player this side of Nikola Jokic to win the 2023-24 MVP award. He also has the skillset and opportunity to go head-to-head with Jokic and vanquish him, which would only help his case as it did Joel Embiid's last season.

Should that prophecy come true, it also doesn't hurt that he'll get plenty of attention when doing it as a member of the NBA's most popular team.

Do you think you know which NBA players will take home hardware this season? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA award odds market to bet any major season-long awards with America's Number One Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.