NBA Betting Picks for Wednesday 4/10/24: Will Timberwolves Find More Success in Denver?

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8
NBA Betting Picks for Wednesday 4/10/24: Will Timberwolves Find More Success in Denver?

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

Memphis Grizzlies at Cleveland Cavaliers

Grizzlies Team Total Under 97.5 (-114)

The Memphis Grizzlies' injury report is a nightmare, and with their season essentially wrapped up with a 27-52 record, it's very unlikely that the Grizzlies will push any players to return from injury.

For Wednesday's bout against the Cleveland Cavaliers, Memphis will be without Santi Aldama, Luke Kennard, and Vince Williams Jr.. Ja Morant, Marcus Smart, and Ziaire Williams were already out for the season. Plus, Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. could miss the final week.

The Grizzlies are essentially without their entire rotation at this point. This roster is beginning to look like a G League team, as players like Jordan Goodwin, Scotty Pippen Jr., Trey Jemison, and Gregory Jackson are in the starting lineup. Brandon Clarke, who is a part of the regular rotation, returned from injury on March 27th but will be absent to manage his Achilles injury.

Memphis' brutal season filled with injuries is finishing the 2023-24 campaign with a thin roster. After piecing together a surprise three-game winning streak from April 1st to April 5th, which included two wins over the Detroit Pistons, the Grizz have lost back-to-back games while totaling only 91.5 points per game (PPG).

Cleveland is nearing a healthy roster for the postseason. Dean Wade and Sam Merrill are the only notable contributors who will be out tonight, and both are bench players who play under 21.0 minutes per game. As you probably guessed, this game has a massive spread with the Cavs favored by 18.5 points.

Memphis' offense has been terrible all season, carrying the worst offensive rating and the second-worst effective field goal percentage (eFG%). Thanks to the boatload of injuries, this unit is only getting worse. They take on the league's seventh-best defense in this matchup. Even with the low total of 97.5, I'm not sure if the Grizzlies are capable of passing 97 points.

The Cavaliers are best at defending the rim, giving up the fifth-fewest points in the paint while touting the fourth-best mark in opponent two-point percentage. Memphis puts up the fewest points in the paint, and they are shooting only 28.6 threes per game over the last five. The Grizzlies shoot the sixth-most threes per game this season (37.9). Memphis has also shot only 30.0% from deep during the five-game span. They even currently lack the tools from deep to find success against a stingy defense.

Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat

Over 215 (-110)

The Dallas Mavericks and the Miami Heat are jostling for playoff positioning with the regular season winding down. The Mavericks are red-hot, winning 11 of their last 12 games, and they are only 2 games back from the 4 seed in the Western Conference. The Heat are 5-2 over the last seven contests and are half a game back from the Philadelphia 76ers for the top spot for the Play-In Tournament.

Each team still has plenty to play for with three games remaining in the regular season. The spread could be too close of a call. Dallas is favored by two points on the road and 76% of spread bets are backing the Mavericks. However, various models are predicting a cover for Miami. Massey Ratings is forecasting a one-point win for Dallas while numberFire is predicting a win for the Heat. Yet I can't ignore the Mavericks' 5-1 record against the spread (ATS) over their past six road games.

I'm quite torn on the spread, so I'm turning to the total. The over is a promising side. During the Heat's last 10, the over is 8-2, and it's hit in back-to-back games for Dallas. This checks out with models, too, as numberFire and Massey Ratings are suggesting the total should be in the ballpark of 220 or 221.

Miami ranks in the top half of three-point percentage and shot 18 of 45 (40.0%) from beyond the arc in their previous game. The Heat's three-point attempts are also up over the last seven games at 37.7 shots per game. They shoot the 13th-fewest threes per game this season at 33.6. The Mavs give up the 13th-most three-point shots per contest (35.8), and opponents are averaging 35.6 shots over Dallas' past five games.

On the other side of the court, the Mavericks throw up the second-most treys per game (39.6). This mark has increased to 43.2 in the Mavericks' last six outings. Miami doesn't have a strong perimeter defense, either, surrendering the seventh-most three-point shots per contest.

I expect three-point shooting to lead the way to the over in this collision.

Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets

Timberwolves +6.5 (-112)

The Western Conference features a must-see matchup tonight as the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Denver Nuggets duke it out for the 1 seed. The two are tied for the top spot in the conference with a 55-24 record.

There's one notable injury for each team ahead of tonight's clash. Karl-Anthony Towns is absent due to a knee injury, and Aaron Gordon is questionable due to a foot setback. Missing Towns is more significant for the T-Wolves, for he ranks second on the team with 22.1 PPG and a 27.9% usage rate.

However, Minnesota's success against Denver this season provides comfort. The Wolves are 3-0 ATS in head-to-head matchups in the 2023-24 season. The Nuggets' tendency to go at a snail's pace (fifth-slowest tempo) plays right into Minnesota's style. Of course, the league's top defense wants to be in slow-paced, defensive games. This likely plays one factor in why the Timberwolves have fared well in head-to-head collisions.

I expect this to continue with Minnesota covering the spread. The 6.5 points in favor of Denver feels generous. The T-Wolves have two double-digit wins over the Nuggets this season -- one of which came on the road.

The team that carried the best three-point percentage in the past three matchups came out with the win. Both squads have been blistering from three during their last four games. Minnesota has shot 41.4% during the span while the Nuggets cashed in 40.1% of their looks. Each defense also ranks among the top five in the fewest three-point attempts allowed per contest.

The three-point shooting is too unpredictable with each team carrying similar stats. Getting to the free throw line could be the difference for the Wolves to keep it close. They outshot Denver by an average margin of 13.5 free throws in their head-to-head wins this season. Minnesota shoots the 13th-most free throws while the Nuggets attempt the 2nd-fewest.

Models are also predicting that this game will finish within four points. Considering their success in recent meetings, I'm taking the Timberwolves' side for the spread.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.