NBA Betting Picks for Wednesday 11/15/23: Timberwolves Look to Fend Off Suns' Big 3

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

Dallas Mavericks at Washington Wizards

Mavericks -6.0 (-110)

The Dallas Mavericks had their two-game winning streak snapped on Tuesday, but they get a favorable matchup tonight against the Washington Wizards. These teams are on opposite ends of spectrum with the Mavs (8-3) in third place in the Western Conference while the Wizards sit in second-to-last place in the Eastern Conference with a 2-8 record.

Washington has lost three consecutive games and is 1-7 over their last eight games. They've struggled to seal wins with fourth-quarter blunders. In fact, the Wizards have led within the final five minutes of the last three games, yet they fell short in every game. Monday's 111-107 loss against the Toronto Raptors was the worst yet. Washington led 106-90 with 7:25 remaining; they were outscored 21-1 for the remainder of the game.

Overall, the Wiz have been as bad as most expected. They rank 24th in offensive rating and 25th in defensive rating. The starting backcourt of Jordan Poole and Tyus Jones has struggled; Poole (-20.2) and Jones (-21.3) have the worst net ratings on the team among qualifying players. Poole has a 48.0% effective field goal percentage (eFG%), and Jones holds a 50.5 eFG% -- both marks are among the bottom-third in the league.

Washington's backcourt will likely be outmatched against Dallas, which features Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. According to FanDuel's NBA MVP odds, Doncic has the second-shortest odds of winning MVP (+470) with marks of 31.1 points per game (PPG), 7.9 assists per game (APG), and 7.8 rebounds per game (RPG). Irving is beginning to hit his stride with 26.3 PPG over his previous three games. The NBA's player impact estimator has Luka as the fifth-best player in the league.

The Mavericks should have a long list of advantages today, including their second-ranked mark in eFG% while Washington holds the sixth-worst mark in opponent eFG%. I'm not going to overcomplicate this matchup. Dallas is the much better team with a big advantage in the backcourt. The Mavs could roll to a cover tonight.

Cleveland Cavaliers at Portland Trail Blazers

Over 219.0 (-110)

The Cleveland Cavaliers against the Portland Trail Blazers is one of tonight's most underwhelming matchups. Both teams are dealing with various injuries. Portland will still be without Anfernee Simons (thumb) and Scoot Henderson (ankle) for several weeks, Robert Williams (knee) will miss the remainder of the season, and Malcolm Brogdon is questionable with a hamstring injury. Cleveland is not dealing with quite as many setbacks, but Isaac Okoro (knee) and Darius Garland (neck) will be out.

This is a lot of scoring production to replace for both teams. Garland ranks third on the Cavs with 17.2 PPG, leads the team with 6.2 APG, and ranks second on the squad with a 25.7% usage rate.

For Portland, Simons, Henderson, and Brogdon rank among the top six players for the most minutes played per game. If Brogdon is absent, the Blazers will be without two of their top four scorers.

Is the over still a feasible bet, even with the long list of injuries?

Portland's defense has overperformed with the 11th-best mark in defensive rating -- compared to last season's 28th-place finish. However, the Trail Blazers have surrendered 117.3 PPG over their last three games. The over has gone 2-1 during that stretch.

On the other side of the court, Cleveland's stumbling defense has led to the disappointing 4-6 start. After leading the NBA in defensive rating in 2022-23, the Cavs rank 17th in the category this campaign. The over has hit in three consecutive Cavaliers games and is 4-1 in the last five contests.

Jarrett Allen's return from injury has not transformed the defense as the team had hoped. In fact, he carries a 123.3 defensive rating -- worst among Cavs starters.

With both defenses struggling, I believe these teams have enough scoring for the over.

Donovan Mitchell is the heartbeat of Cleveland as he leads the team with 28.7 PPG, a 31.9% usage rate, and ranks third on the squad with a 116.7 offensive rating. Max Strus (14.3 PPG) has also been hot over his last three games with 15.7 PPG while shooting 60.7% from the floor and 61.1% on three-pointers.

Portland still has a strong scoring trio in Brogdon (17.3 PPG), Shaedon Sharpe (19.5 PPG), and Jerami Grant (23.1 PPG). One of the Blazers' guards could feast as the Cavs have susceptible wing defenders in Strus (113.3 rating) and Caris LeVert (117.6).

Neither defense has performed well in recent games, and with the over consistently hitting for both teams, this matchup could be poised for a boatload of points.

Minnesota Timberwolves at Phoenix Suns

Timberwolves +6.0 (-110)

After weeks of waiting, Devin Booker, Bradley Beal, and Kevin Durant are finally expected to take the court together tonight for the Phoenix Suns. The Suns securing a win may be a forgone conclusion for many. Phoenix was on the receiving end of plenty of offseason hype after landing Beal via trade. Even following the 4-6 start, the Suns have the fourth-shortest odds to win the NBA Finals (+650) when looking at FanDuel's NBA odds.

Booker, Beal, and Durant should form a three-headed monster on offense. Booker has a 120.3 offensive rating while averaging 31.5 PPG in two games this season. Durant boasts a 115.9 offensive rating while totaling 30.0 PPG, and Beal ranked second on the Wizards last season with a 117.9 offensive rating.

This should be a lethal trio as the season progresses, but Phoenix has a tough task for tonight's clash with the Minnesota Timberwolves. Minnesota leads the Association in defensive rating, is on a league-best seven-game winning streak, and holds the No. 2 seed in the West with an 8-2 record.

After an aggressive move to acquire Rudy Gobert ahead of the 2022-23 season, the Timberwolves were on the receiving end of plenty of criticism. Now, the move doesn't look so bad; everything seems to be falling into place. Anthony Edwards is emerging as a dark horse MVP contender (+2000) with 27.6 PPG, 6.0 RPG, and 5.3 RPG. Karl-Anthony Towns is rolling with 26.5 PPG and 9.0 RPG over his previous four games. Gobert and Towns have also excelled on the defensive end as both players hold defensive ratings under 112.5.

The debut of the Suns' big three could be spoiled. The Suns are 0-2-1 against the spread (ATS) over their last three games, and the T-Wolves are 5-2 ATS in their last seven contests. Phoenix ranks 21st in eFG% while Minnesota leads the league in opponent eFG%. The Suns are also 25th in points in the paint allowed per game, and the Wolves rank among the top half in points in the paint per game.

Most importantly, Minnesota has a pair of solid wing defenders in Edwards (112.4 rating) and Jaden McDaniels (112.5 rating), a duo that could help slow the Suns' stars.

Give me the Wolves to cover. They could even come up with an outright victory (+198).

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.