NBA Betting Picks for Thursday 11/9/23: Will Hawks-Magic Soar to the Over in Mexico City?

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers

Pacers Moneyline (+136)

Ahead of Friday's nine-game slate for the In-Season Tournament, Thursday features just two contests -- a doubleheader on NBA TV. The Milwaukee Bucks against the Indiana Pacers may have looked like an underwhelming matchup ahead of the season, but thanks to Indiana's 5-3 start, this should be an entertaining clash.

The Pacers' offense has been a flamethrower, ranking first in offensive rating, points per game (PPG), effective field goal percentage (eFG%), and the list goes on. You get the point -- this unit has been elite.

Indiana's most impressive feat could be ranking ninth in average score margin (+4.8). They are 3-1 over their last four games, but the Pacers have faced four consecutive opponents with losing records. Indiana can prove its worth against the Bucks, the team FanDuel Sportbook's NBA Finals odds have with the second-shortest odds to win the Larry O'Brien Trophy (+410).

While Milwaukee sits at 5-2, they have not been as dominant as we're used to. In fact, they finished 6th in average score margin last season and are currently 17th in the category (-2.3) for 2023-24. The Bucks are very fortunate to have a winning record with a negative average margin.

As expected with Jrue Holiday gone, Milwaukee's defense has harshly dropped (25th in defensive rating). For comparison, they ranked fourth in defensive rating last season. Damian Lillard (119.0), Malik Beasley (116.8), and Brook Lopez (115.5) have been up and down on the defensive end with mediocre-to-poor ratings. Plus, the unit could be even worse if Jae Crowder (118.3) gets the start; Khris Middleton is questionable with a knee injury.

The Bucks' backcourt has been a liability on defense, which should create the opportunity for the Pacers' guards to feast. Buddy Hield (124.8), Tyrese Haliburton (124.2), Aaron Nesmith (122.8), and Bruce Brown Jr. (122.4) all rank among the top 14 offensive ratings in the NBA.

Indiana should stay hot on offense, but their defensive rating is the fifth-worst mark in the league. Stopping the Bucks -- specifically Giannis Antetokounmpo -- will also be a challenge. Obi Toppin will likely draw the matchup, and his defensive rating is 117.0.

The over is certainly a feasible bet with the total at 241.5. However, I can't get past the Pacers moneyline sitting at +136.

Indiana's backcourt is capable of leading the way to a win. The Pacers attempt the 5th-most three-pointers per game, and Milwaukee ranks 19th in attempted three-pointers allowed per game. This is yet another reason for backing Indiana's backcourt in various wagers.

Atlanta Hawks at Orlando Magic

Over 231.0 (-112)

To cap the doubleheader, the Orlando Magic play host to the Atlanta Hawks. These are two potential playoff teams in the Eastern Conference as the Hawks and Magic are in fifth and sixth place, respectively, with 4-3 records.

Orlando is led by a strong defense (fourth-best in rating) while Atlanta has leaned on their offense (fourth-best in rating). This is an elite-on-elite matchup, and the units combat each other in almost every way.

For example, the Hawks like to run, averaging the fifth-most points on the break, but the Magic surrender the second-fewest fastbreak points. Atlanta ranks sixth in points in the paint per game while Orlando allows the seventh-fewest points in the paint per game. The pace of this game will be a big factor; the Hawks boast the 3rd-quickest pace, and the Magic play at the 10th-slowest pace.

Determining if the total will go over or under could be a difficult bet with the two teams featuring contrasting styles. Even the rebounding department doesn't help the dilemma as both teams are among the top eight in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage.

The Hawks could have an advantage in forcing turnovers, which may allow them to run and rack up fastbreak points. They rank 10th in steals per game and 9th in forced turnovers per game. The Magic commit the eighth-most turnovers at 15.9 per game. Forcing turnovers should allow Atlanta to push the pace, which can ultimately lead to more points.

So far, I have just addressed the Hawks' offense against the Magic's defense. Orlando, who is 21st in offensive rating, could be poised for a high point total. Atlanta ranks 17th in defensive rating, 24th in opponent paint points per game, and 25th in opponent two-point percentage. This is the perfect scenario for the Magic as they average the eighth-most points in the paint.

Orlando's forward tandem of Franz Wagner (18.7 PPG) and Paolo Banchero (18.1 PPG) seems poised for a big night. Both players like to attack the paint; Wagner has attempted 76 of his 121 field goal attempts (FGA) within 14 feet of the basket, and Banchero has shot 63 of his 91 FGA within 14 feet.

With the Hawks' ability to push the pace and the Magic's potential success in the paint, I like the over. Mexico City -- the site of tonight's game -- could be in store for an explosive, high-scoring contest.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.