NBA

NBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Sunday 3/24/24

Austin Swaim
Austin SwaimASwaim3
NBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Sunday 3/24/24

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

Our favorite picks are to come, but don't forget to check out FanDuel's Parlay Hub for other trending bets for all sports -- including basketball.

Without further delay, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All injury news comes from the NBA's official injury report.

NBA Best Bets

New Orleans Pelicans at Detroit Pistons

Pelicans Team Total Over 115.5 (-118)
C.J. McCollum Over 4.5 Assists (-102)

I had to carefully select the New Orleans Pelicans' team total in this one to capture a high-scoring angle without some of the concerns of this game.

The Pels' -8.3 net rating in games without Brandon Ingram is pretty damning, but it's really NOLA's defensive rating (124.3) that's slipped more in the sample than their offensive one (115.0).

Their offense should have a field day on the Detroit Pistons. Detroit's 114.9 defensive rating overall is poor, and it gets even worse when Jalen Duren, questionable with a back injury, is off the floor (129.3). The Pistons' 4th-highest pace in the league also represents a huge uptick in possessions for the 18th-ranked Pelicans.

Sharp NBA models expect scoring from New Orleans across the board today. numberFire has them pegged at 119.2 median points -- a sentiment that both DRatings (119.2) and Massey Ratings (117.0) share.

This line for C.J. McCollum's assist total is pretty wild if expecting heightened scoring. McCollum averages 5.90 assists per 36 minutes with Ingram off the floor, and Detroit cedes the seventh-most assists per game to point guards (9.1) as a matchup.

FanDuel Research's NBA projections are expecting 5.5 assists from the Pels' floor general on Sunday.

Philadelphia 76ers at Los Angeles Clippers

Over 214.5 (-108)
James Harden Over 31.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (+100)

It's a revenge game for James Harden and his Los Angeles Clippers in L.A. today.

Harden will host his former team that he scorned, the Philadelphia 76ers, in a showdown not expected to be competitive given a 9.5-point spread. Both of these teams have been in a bit of a rut lately, but this total seems far too low.

In games without Russell Westbrook, the Clips' 117.3 offensive rating and 117.6 defensive rating are both ripe for a shootout. Philly's defense has also tanked in games without Joel Embiid and De'Anthony Melton, falling to an ugly 126.3 dRTG. The average pace between these situations (95.7) isn't bad, either.

Our analytic-driven friends like scoring in this one, too. nF projects 224.3 total points in this one, DRatings is expecting 226.6, and Massey (221.0) is also well above this projected total.

If that's the case, why not turn to Harden with obvious motivation? After all, the 76ers are a plus matchup when it comes to surrendering points (15th-most), rebounds (9th-most), and assists (9th-most) per game to point guards over their last 30 games -- roughly the span they've played without Embiid.

FDR is projecting Harden for 17.4 points, 8.9 assists, and 5.6 rebounds in this matinee, totaling 31.9 PRA. The projections don't factor in motivation, so we can certainly get behind that at even money.

Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat

Cavaliers +4 (-110)
Over 203.5 (-110)

Plenty of key absences can make this game a bit ambiguous to forecast, but you could arguably favor the Cleveland Cavaliers on the road in this spot.

In games without Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, and Max Strus, Cleveland's net rating is -6.2. That's still superior to the Miami Heat's ugly -9.2 net rating in games without Tyler Herro this season. The Heat also defend home court at one of the worst clips in the NBA given a 12-21 against the spread (ATS) record in that situation.

Two of our key models are extremely into the Cavs' chances tonight. Massey gives them a 48.0% chance to win outright and 59.3% to cover the spread. numberFire has those marks at 58.0% and 68.4%, respectively. I'm going to sprinkle Cavaliers ML (+144) when it seems this undervalued.

As for this game's total, the Cavs' 118.3 dRTG in this situation should help buoy a Miami offense that has a hideous 105.3 oRTG in the same condition. This game's expected pace (92.0) given the two floor conditions together is low, but even when using that pace and these efficiency marks, my basic model expects 212.7 points in this game.

numberFire (212.3), Massey (207.0), and DRatings (216.0) are all aligned on a significantly higher total than this; the over might be an even better play than a side.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Milwaukee Bucks

Over 233.5 (-110)

This will be the fourth bet in today's article targeting scoring, and I'm not surprised unbiased models are pointing us in this direction when unders are white hot since the All-Star break.

This time, we've got a hefty total (233.5) between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Milwaukee Bucks, which I'd easily call the game of the day when both teams enter at full health.

With all their pieces, both OKC (115.7) and Milwaukee (121.9) have awesome oRTGs in this relevant sample. The expected pace here (99.51) would also hover around the league's top 10 at a team level.

This line moved from 232.0 to 233.5 as I was writing the piece, so sharp money is moving the boat quickly. It's easy to see why when numberFire (242.8), DRatings (236.6), and Massey (234.0) are all north of this total.

Indiana Pacers at Los Angeles Lakers

Tyrese Haliburton 3+ Threes Made (-125)
Austin Reaves Over 15.5 Points (-115)

Though not particularly seeing value on a side or the total, this 241.0-point over/under has a couple of props to target.

It is a bit nerve-wracking to target Tyrese Haliburton's three-point prop when he's shooting just 21.1% from deep this month, but his 36.2% rate for the entire season shows he can splash. Hali is still attempting 6.9 triples a game this month, and this is a sublime matchup to get going. The Los Angeles Lakers have ceded the 10th-most (tied) three-point makes per game to opposing point guards (3.9).

FanDuel Research's projections expect 3.1 threes from the Indiana Pacers' franchise player on Sunday, and we'd only need a projection of 2.7 to show value against this number.

On the other side, Indiana's 117.6 dRTG (sixth-worst in the NBA) is vulnerable -- especially to shooting guards. They've allowed the seventh-most points per game to the position (26.3).

Enter Austin Reaves, who topped this mark in six straight games to begin March. However, due to 10-for-30 shooting in the past three games, he's missed it in three straight. This matchup seems like the right spot to return to his mean production.

FDR agrees, placing a 16.1-point projection on AR15 in Sunday's game. We'll take that around a pick 'em.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.