NBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Saturday 4/6/24

Austin Swaim
Austin SwaimASwaim3
NBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Saturday 4/6/24

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

Our favorite picks are to come, but don't forget to check out FanDuel's Parlay Hub for other trending bets for all sports -- including basketball.

Without further delay, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All injury news comes from the NBA's official injury report.

NBA Best Bets

Cleveland Cavaliers at Los Angeles Lakers

Under 229.5 (-114)
Darius Garland Over 22.5 Points and Assists (-122)

This total for a Saturday matinee in L.A. might be a bit too high.

The Cleveland Cavaliers and Los Angeles Lakers play conflicting styles that makes their game a bit hard to forecast. Los Angeles sits 4th in the NBA in pace, and they're 15th in defensive rating. They're the league's best team for overs (55.1% rate) for a reason.

However, Cleveland plays at the league's 25th-fastest tempo, and they're 6th in defensive rating. The Cavs' rate of hitting the over is 48.1%, which ranks in the bottom half of the league.

These teams met back in November at full strength, and there were 233 combined points. I still look back at the box score and see a game that would have sailed under if not for 44 (!) combined free throws that went down at an 86.4% clip.

numberFire's model expects just 228.1 median points in this contest, and other top models like Massey Ratings (227.0) and DRatings (224.6) believe the total is a bit too high, as well.

I generally try to avoid props in games expecting "unders", but this Darius Garland mark seems extremely low. Garland averages 19.7 points and 7.1 assists per 36 minutes, and he's posted 36.0 minutes per game on the dot in April. Plus, the Lakers allow the fourth-most points and fourth-most assists per game to floor generals.

FanDuel Research's NBA projections expect 18.7 points and 8.0 assists from Garland in 34.6 minutes. That crushes this line from FanDuel despite the total being a bit elevated.

Detroit Pistons at Brooklyn Nets

Nets Team Total Over 112.5 Points (-112)
Mikal Bridges Over 23.5 Points and Rebounds (-115)

The Detroit Pistons are sitting Cade Cunningham today -- and likely most of the rest of the year. I want no piece of their ragtag offense, but we can certainly target their opponent.

Detroit's defensive rating is an unsightly 122.9 in games where Cade didn't suit up, and they've relied on efficiency to combat opponent scoring when also playing at the league's ninth-fastest pace. The Brooklyn Nets should have their way wi be able to have their way with th them despite their own warts.

Heck, the Memphis Grizzlies -- without Jaren Jackson Jr. or Desmond Bane -- scored 108 on them last night. Add in Brooklyn's bonafide scorers and some tired legs, and our models have high hopes for the Nets' offense tonight. numberFire (118.7), DRatings (115.7), and Massey (114.0) are all comfortably north of the team's 112.5-point team total prop.

One of the aforementioned bonafide scorers is Mikal Bridges, who has posted 20.7 points and 4.7 rebounds per 36 minutes this season and has logged 32.5 minutes per game this month despite a blowout in one of the two contests. He's on the floor a ton, which is an excellent case for his over when Detroit also cedes the 7th-most points and 11th-most rebounds per game to opposing small forwards.

Bridges is projected for 19.6 points and 4.6 rebounds in 34.7 minutes on Saturday. That would clear this hurdle.

Atlanta Hawks at Denver Nuggets

Hawks +12 (-110)
Over 221 (-110)
Michael Porter Jr. Over 17.5 Points (-115)

The Atlanta Hawks have beaten the Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Clippers thrice in their past 10 games, but they still aren't getting respect from oddsmakers.

I can't believe Atlanta is catching 12 against the reeling (and potentially shorthanded) Denver Nuggets in this one. The Hawks still have a +3.3 net rating in medium-to-high-leverage situations in games where both Trae Young and Saddiq Bey have been out of action. They're a solid club.

Denver, meanwhile, has just a +2.2 net rating in games with Nikola Jokic and without Jamal Murray. That could be the case again with Murray "questionable" to return from his knee-related layoff. There's a case to be made Atlanta can win outright, but I'll take the points in case Murray does play.

As for the total, the Hawks have a 53.2% over rate this season, so this low bar is definitely workable. They still have a 115.7 defensive rating in the aforementioned floor condition and play at the league's 6th-fastest pace -- a huge uptick in possessions for the 27th-ranked Nuggets. The expected pace of these two floor situations (96.7) isn't bad at all.

nF, Massey, and DRatings have this spread at 9.1, 8.0, and 8.5 points, respectively. The models, respectively, have the median total set at 225.1, 226.0, and 225.7 points. Across the board, our analytical friends are taking the Hawks and the over.

If we see increased scoring, I like hopping on Michael Porter Jr.'s points prop before the Murray news is final. MPJ has posted 18.0 points per 36 minutes with Murray on the floor, so his absence isn't a must for expected value at 17.5. Atlanta allows the third-most points per game to opposing small forwards (22.8), too.

FDR has Porter Jr. projected for 18.1 points on Saturday -- a number that will rise with another confirmed absence. This line could be a steal if the Canadian sits again.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.