NBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Saturday 3/30/24

Austin Swaim
Austin SwaimASwaim3
NBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Saturday 3/30/24

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

Our favorite picks are to come, but don't forget to check out FanDuel's Parlay Hub for other trending bets for all sports -- including basketball.

Without further delay, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All injury news comes from the NBA's official injury report.

NBA Best Bets

Boston Celtics at New Orleans Pelicans

Pelicans +6 (-108)

We've seen time and time again this season that the Boston Celtics just aren't the same team on the road.

While leading the NBA in net rating both home (+15.7) and away (+7.9), there is a massive difference between those two numbers in terms of firepower. On the heels of losing two road contests to the Atlanta Hawks, they'll now face the New Orleans Pelicans, who are one of the strongest home teams in the NBA.

NOLA's +5.6 net rating at home is seventh-best in the Association, and you can quell any fears of not having Brandon Ingram in this spot. The Pels have a +7.9 net rating in games Ingram didn't play this year -- best explained by the extra touches for Zion Williamson.

numberFire's model expects New Orleans to cover 69.1% of the time in this spot. Other models like DRatings (+2.6) and Massey Ratings (+4.0) also have this spread projected far lower than six in the Pelicans' direction.

Memphis Grizzlies at Orlando Magic

Over 205.5 (-112)
Scottie Pippen Jr. Over 10.5 Points (+104)

This total is outlierishly low for a 2024 NBA game, and the underlying data here doesn't quite support that.

The Orlando Magic do play at the 5th-slowest pace in the NBA, and the Memphis Grizzlies operate at the 13th-slowest pace. Still, the expected pace in this game given these two's current injury situations (97.43) doesn't alone explain this few points projected on the board.

That's especially true when Orlando has a modest 116.5 offensive rating in games where Markelle Fultz (knee) didn't play.

Across the board with minimal injury variation to how these two have played a bulk of their games, key models think this total is too low. numberFire (214.3), DRatings (211.3), and Massey (211.0) are all significantly above this mark.

If that's the case, I'm looking toward a budding rotation member of the Grizzlies for heightened scoring. Scotty Pippen Jr. has taken over lead point guard duties, and he could be called upon even more than the past two games with Desmond Bane (knee) now out again for this one. He's posted 17.9 points per 36 minutes with Bane off the floor.

Surprisingly for a good defense, Orlando cedes the eighth-most points per game to opposing point guards (25.6). FanDuel Research's NBA projections have Pippen Jr. pegged for 10.8 points in 25.9 minutes tonight, but don't be surprised if he sails past both of those marks.

Milwaukee Bucks at Atlanta Hawks

Hawks Team Total Over 110.5 Points (-108)
Bogdan Bogdanovic Over 22.5 Points and Rebounds (-120)

The Atlanta Hawks just defeated the C's twice scoring an average of 121.5 points, but oddsmakers are still not optimistic about them facing the Milwaukee Bucks' defense. I'm not particularly sure why.

Atlanta has a massive 124.1 offensive rating in a limited sample (518 possessions) during games where Trae Young, Jalen Johnson, and Saddiq Bey all did not play. That speaks to the pieces still remaining, and I'm not sure how you forecast a road blowout for the Bucks here with Damian Lillard (personal) sitting -- especially when they've had a 122.2 defensive rating in games where Dame didn't play.

numberFire (124.3), DRatings (115.8), and Massey (118.0) all expect a much higher scoring output than 110 points for Atlanta tonight. If that's the case, expect Bogdan Bogdanovic to be a reason why.

Bogie has taken at least 15 shots in each of the last three games with Johnson missing time, and he's delivered 19.0 points and 4.3 rebounds per 36 minutes with Johnson, Young, and Bey off the floor. Plus, Milwaukee has struggled to defend two guards all season, allowing the fifth-most points and second-most rebounds per game to the position.

FDR is projecting Bogdanovic for 19.8 points and 4.0 rebounds in tonight's game, and the combined mark (23.8) is well above oddsmakers' expectations for this combo prop.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.