NBA Best Bets Today: Cavaliers at Pistons Game 5 Preview & Pick for Wednesday 5/13/26

Top NBA Picks at a Glance

• Pistons -3.5

The NBA postseason offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. Our NBA projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

What are the top NBA player props for today as well as the best NBA Same Game Parlay?

NBA Predictions, Picks and Best Bets for Today

Cavaliers at Pistons -- Pistons -3.5

Step-by-Step Game Analysis

Step 1: The Home Court Pattern Is Ironclad

This series has been defined by one trend above all others: the home team has prevailed and covered in each of the first four games.

The Detroit Pistons won Games 1 and 2 at Little Caesars Arena. The Cleveland Cavaliers won Games 3 and 4 at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse. Game 5 returns to Detroit — and the homecourt success both each side is not a fluke. It reflects two defenses that are genuinely elite on their own floors, two crowds that amplify their team's urgency, and two road offenses that consistently underperform their home capabilities. Monday's loss dropped the Pistons to 4-17 straight-up and 6-15 ATS in their last 21 away games, while the Cavaliers are 1-4 straight-up and 2-3 ATS on the road of late.

Step 2: Donovan Mitchell's Road Problem

Mitchell dropped a staggering 43 points in Game 4, erupting for 21 points in the third quarter alone after a muted first half where he scored just 4 points. That performance was extraordinary — but it happened at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, where Mitchell has been a certified assassin all postseason. Mitchell's 39 points in the second half of Game 4 tied the record for the most in a half in any postseason game, but it is reasonable to suggest we will not see that kind of heater from the superstar guard in Game 5, especially with this matchup taking place in Detroit.

Mitchell's long-range shooting has fallen off in the postseason, down to 32.3% from 36.4% in the regular season. He has shot just 12-of-39 from beyond the arc this series (30.8%). Away from home, Mitchell's shot selection has been more conservative and his fourth-quarter surge production has not appeared in either road loss.

Step 3: The Harden Road Factor

Harden has looked like a much more confident player at home, and his last showing on the road in this series was his worst game of the playoffs to this point. Harden reportedly has a hand injury he is playing through. A veteran guard managing a hand injury on the road in a hostile playoff environment — with the Pistons' physical defensive scheme specifically targeting his pull-up opportunities — is a meaningful concern. When Harden is passive on the road and Mitchell is running below his home ceiling, Cleveland's offense will likely struggle. That was the pattern in Games 1 and 2.

Step 4: Cade Cunningham's Home Brilliance

Cade Cunningham has absolutely excelled at home in these playoffs, and we can expect another strong game from the Pistons' leading scorer in what is essentially a must-win game at home following a pair of disappointing losses. With Cade Cunningham struggling to play at his A-game on the road, the vibe has carried throughout the team — but at Little Caesars, that version of Cunningham disappears entirely. At home, Cunningham operates within a fully functioning Detroit system — the trap scheme works, the transition offense flows, and the crowd provides the energy his game thrives on.

Detroit is holding opponents to 99.3 points in six home playoff games. That is one of the most dominant home defensive rates in the postseason. The Cavaliers' offensive profile directly conflicts with this number: Cleveland is 1-8 straight-up, ATS, and 0-9 on the over/under when failing to score more than 101 against a competitor over the entire 2025-26 campaign. Detroit holding them to 99 or below at home means the Cavaliers are in genuine trouble regardless of Mitchell's individual effort.

Step 5: The Historical Data for Game 5 Home Favorites

When isolating just the betting favorites competing at home in Game 5 of a playoff series, historical records improve to 94-27 straight-up and 66-55 ATS. Of the last 10 occasions, the only favorites to drop a Game 5 in their backyard were the 2023 Boston Celtics and the 2024 Oklahoma City Thunder. That is an 8-2 win rate in the last ten instances. The historical base rate for home teams in Game 5 is overwhelming, and Detroit's specific defensive profile at home — holding opponents under 100 points in six home playoff games — makes the cover probability even higher.

The Best Bet -- Pistons -3.5

Every game in this series has been won by the home team. Detroit is holding opponents to 99.3 points per game at home in these playoffs. Cleveland hasn't won on the road this postseason. Mitchell's road shooting is nearly 10 percentage points below his home production. Harden's road performances have been his worst of the series. Cunningham is an entirely different player at Little Caesars Arena. It all adds up to Detroit -3.5 being my favorite way to bet this game.

NBA Betting -- Frequently Asked Questions

What does the point spread mean in NBA betting?

The point spread is a margin set by oddsmakers to level the playing field between two unevenly matched teams. For example, if the Golden State Warriors are listed at -7.5, they need to win by 8 or more points for a bet on them to cash. Conversely, a bet on their opponent at +7.5 wins if that team loses by 7 or fewer points — or wins outright.

What is the moneyline?

The moneyline is a straight-up bet on which team wins the game, with no spread involved. Favorites carry a negative number (e.g., -200, meaning you must risk $200 to win $100), while underdogs carry a positive number (e.g., +170, meaning a $100 bet returns $170 profit).

How does the over/under (game total) work?

Oddsmakers set a projected combined score for the game, and bettors wager on whether the actual total will go over or under that number. For instance, if the total is set at 224.5 points, an over bet wins if both teams combine for 225 or more points. NBA totals can swing based on pace of play, rest situations, and injuries, so it's worth tracking those factors before placing a total bet.

What are NBA player props?

Player props are bets tied to an individual player's statistical performance rather than the game's outcome. Common prop bet markets include points scored, assists, rebounds, three-pointers made, and combinations of those stats.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.