NASCAR Xfinity Series Win Simulations: Andy's Frozen Custard 300

Jim Sannes
Jim Sannes@JimSannes
NASCAR Xfinity Series Win Simulations: Andy's Frozen Custard 300

There's win equity on the table for this week's NASCAR Xfinity Series race in Texas.

Since the start of 2022, the Xfinity Series has run 14 races on non-drafting 1.5-mile tracks.

John Hunter Nemechek has won three of those races. So has Noah Gragson. Josh Berry has two while Tyler Reddick and Ty Gibbs have one apiece.

None of those guys are in the field on Saturday.

Because Nemechek was in the field for the series' first race on a 1.5-mile track this year in Vegas (which he won), the Andy's Frozen Custard 300 is the first time we've seen this group devoid of its tormentors. It definitely makes things more interesting.

That doesn't prevent favorites from emerging. Chandler Smith, Cole Custer, and Justin Allgaier are all +500 or shorter in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds.

My model views things a bit more open prior to practice and qualifying. Here's the full run of sims.

Win Sim
Top 5
Cole Custer12.6%32.9%49.0%
Austin Hill10.8%29.3%43.2%
Justin Allgaier9.1%27.9%42.7%
Chandler Smith9.1%25.8%39.9%
Riley Herbst9.1%25.2%39.6%
Ryan Truex7.5%21.3%35.2%
A.J. Allmendinger6.7%19.6%32.3%
View Full Table

None of the favorites are values relative to the market, but we can find some lower on the board. That could lead to swipes at longshots like Brandon Jones (+2500) or Parker Kligerman (+5000), but I'm most intrigued by AJ Allmendinger (+1600).

Allmendinger had solid speed at Vegas, posting a sixth-place average running position en route to a sixth-place finish. Allmendinger has led double-digit laps in two of four career Xfinity Series races in Texas, and he qualified sixth here in the Cup Series last year.

My model has Dinger at 6.7% to win, up from 5.9% implied. If I were to place one outright now, it'd be on him.

The drivers worth monitoring in Friday's practice are Austin Hill, Riley Herbst, and Jesse Love. All three are near their implied odds at FanDuel and have shown speed on 1.5-mile tracks. Both Herbst and Hill proved they can win on this track type last year, as well, so that trio could be in play if they flash good speed before the green flag.

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Which drivers stand out to you on Saturday? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.