NASCAR Betting Picks: Wurth 400

10d

Before proceeding further, I must warn you: there is a curse at play in this piece.

I have recommended betting a manufacturer to win three times this year. That manufacturer has finished second in all three races, once by 0.003 seconds and another after they held the top three spots coming out of the final corner.

Is this typical variance associated with NASCAR betting? Or are there higher powers at play? You must choose, my friend.

This is relevant because I'm showing value in a manufacturer bet again this week at Dover. One group -- in the eyes of my model -- is a decent-sized value in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds for the Wurth 400. And it's a value I'm willing to trust.

Let's dive into that first, praying that our hex has been lifted, and then outline other values that stand out prior to practice and qualifying.

Wurth 400 Betting Picks

Toyota to Win (+150)

(UPDATE: Toyota has since lengthened to +180 to win the race. This is likely because only two Toyotas qualified inside the top 10, but this is an overreaction. They had four of the five fastest cars in 10-lap average, so the speed is there. My model still has them at 46.1% to win, up from 35.7% implied, so I'd be happy to scoop this number if you didn't bet it earlier in the week.)

Are we begging fate to stab us in the heart once again by betting against Hendrick Motorsports at Dover? Possibly.

But Toyota got the win last year, and I think they're undervalued to do it again on Sunday.

Hendrick's dominance here dates back to when Jimmie Johnson made Dover his playplace, winning a whopping 11 times. Their stable now includes Kyle Larson, who has led 150-plus laps here in 3 of the past 9 races, and Chase Elliott, who has a pair of wins here, as well.

But Joe Gibbs Racing has a stout resume, too. Denny Hamlin won here in 2020, and Martin Truex Jr. claimed his fourth Dover victory in last year's race. Before that win, he had finished runner-up in three of the previous five races.

Additionally, Toyota's form is top-notch. They won Bristol, the closest comp to Dover on the schedule, in addition to races at two other shorter tracks in Richmond and Phoenix. Those tracks aren't similar to Dover, but they show that Toyotas are tough to top in 2024.

Once you add in the depth of the Toyota stable with six drivers holding at least 1.6% win odds for me, I've got them well clear of their implied 40.0% mark at +150. It's tough to bet against Larson, Elliott, and William Byron, but with how strong Toyota has been, it's a bet I'm willing to make.

Tyler Reddick to Finish Top 10 (+105)

(UPDATE: Reddick has since shortened to -165 to finish top 10. That's still a value for me after qualifying, but if looking to bet Reddick, I think there's a better market for doing so. More on that below.)

I do have value on Tyler Reddick to win at +2000. I think that's worth considering.

But part of that is my model making a bet on talent, and Reddick's Dover history makes it tough to justify an outright. A top-10 bet, though, is a different story.

Reddick's Cup career at Dover has been more fine than anything. He has a pair of top-10s in five races, which you won't turn down. But he's yet to lead a lap, and he has no top-five finishes.

I don't think that middling history will stick long-term in large part due to Reddick's background. He grew up racing dirt cars, and there are heavy similarities between dirt racing and concrete (Dover's surface). The optimal groove changes throughout a run, which is why we see dirt drivers like Larson, Christopher Bell, and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. spike on concrete tracks. Reddick should fall in that bucket, too.

We have seen glimpses of this. Reddick won here in the Craftsman Truck Series back in 2015 -- his age-19 season -- and he has had decent runs in Xfinity and Cup since. So although it hasn't been his best track, it hasn't been his worst, either.

Baking in some expected progression at the track, my model has Reddick in the top 10 55.3% of the time, up from 48.8% implied. I'd love to add an outright later on, but with where things stand now, we'll hold tight with the top 10.

Noah Gragson to Finish Top 10 (+500)

(UPDATE: Gragson has since shortened to +250 to finish top 10. This is due to a stout qualifying effort as Gragson will start fifth. Unfortunately, he's no longer a value for me, so I would pass on adding at this number.)

The one non-Toyota who stands out to me now is Noah Gragson. I've got a smidge of value on Gragson to win at +10000, but the value on this top-10 market is tough to pass up.

My model has Gragson at 26.0% to finish top 10. That's well clear of his 16.7% implied odds at +500, making him easily the best value in the field. If forced to make one bet, it'd be a tough call between Gragson here and the Toyota outright.

Gragson has historically run well on tracks with high banking, Dover's other key characteristic. He's a two-time Bristol winner in the Xfinity Series, and he was leading with two laps left in the 2018 Truck race at Dover before crashing. There's less projection here than we have with Reddick.

Gragson has run well to open 2024. He was 12th in both Richmond and Phoenix, and he has shown speed at other tracks, too. Combine it all together, and I agree with the model that we should be buying into him at this price.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Tyler Reddick to Win (+1400)

I said earlier in the week I was hoping to be able to add a Reddick outright eventually. I think we have the green light on that now.

Reddick showed good speed on Saturday. He was second in single-lap speed and seventh in five-lap average. He didn't record a 10-lap average, but as mentioned before, Toyotas occupied four of the top five spots there.

Reddick will start the race in fourth, giving him good track position and easy access to running out front. The model now has him at 9.1% to win, up from 6.7% implied.

Post-Qualifying Addition: William Byron to Finish Top 5 (-120)

If I didn't already have the "Toyota to win" bet outlined above, I might consider William Byron to win at +600. He's a value for me there.

But this is a value, too, so I'll take it in a market I can cash without neutering the Toyota outright.

The model liked Byron coming into the weekend, but it adores him now. He qualified third and ranked inside the top three in single-lap, five-lap, and 10-lap speed.

Although Byron has never won Dover, he has finished fourth here three of the past four races, and he led 193 laps last year. That's why I struggle to push back on the model having him at 66.9% to finish top five, up from 54.6% implied.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Christopher Bell to Finish Top 10 (+115)

Christopher Bell wrecked during qualifying and will start 33rd today. That's obviously less than ideal.

But he ranked fifth in 10-lap average on Saturday, so the speed seems to be there, and he didn't have to go to a backup car. I think he can rally for a good finish here.

Bell is similar to Reddick in that his dirt background should benefit him at Dover. He has finished top-six here each of the past two years, and he won at this track twice in the Xfinity Series.

It's a long race, so Bell should have plenty of time to work his way through the field. I've got him at 57.3% to finish top 10, up from 46.5% implied.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Chris Buescher to Finish Top 10 (+170)

My model tends to like the RFK Racing cars on tracks where tire degradation plays a role. There were some tire issues during yesterday's practice, so I'm looking to add both drivers from this stable to my betslip.

Let's start with Chris Buescher, who qualified a modest 18th. His speed during practice wasn't elite, either, so this is really more about the pre-weekend info on Buescher.

Buescher has logged an eighth-place average running position in both Next-Gen races at Dover, and he converted both into top-10 finishes. He also won the 2022 Bristol race, another Next-Gen running on concrete. Buescher finished seventh in Bristol this year when tire issues cropped up big time.

I've got Buescher at 51.6% to finish top 10, way up from 37.0% implied. If I had just one bet to make based on today's odds. It might be this. The other contender is the top-10 on his teammate below.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Brad Keselowski to Finish Top 10 (+230)

Most of the rationale from Buescher applies to Brad Keselowski, but his odds are even a bit longer.

The implied odds for Keselowski are 30.3%. I've got him below Buescher but still well above that mark at 40.6%.

Keselowski was in contention for the win in Bristol this year, logging a third-place finish. If tire issues pop up again, he has proven that his veteran savvy can make it work to his benefit.

Keselowski struggled the first Next-Gen race at Dover, but he popped back up last year with an eighth-place finish. I buy into the model here in saying that both RFK drivers should be more highly-rated than they are coming into today.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.