NASCAR Betting Guide: Hollywood Casino 400

Sunday's NASCAR Cup Series race in Kansas is going to be a great measuring stick of which teams are set to feast during this year's playoffs.

Throughout the summer, we've seen a bunch of different track types. Superspeedways, road courses, big non-drafting tracks, and even a street course were featured.

But the Cup Series hasn't been to a 1.5-mile track since Memorial Day weekend. With Kansas kicking off a stretch where four of the next seven races will be on that track type, speed here could hint at a championship run.

The question is how much pace on tracks like Pocono and Michigan will translate to Kansas. Those tracks illustrate top-end speed, but tire wear and banking are different there, so they're not perfect comps. As a result, it's hard to tell whether the recent main characters will contend again on Sunday.

This is a deficiency for both us and bookmakers. Finding the proper blend could give us a leg up in the betting market.

My model attempts to blend these factors to identify which drivers will be fast in Sunday's Hollywood Casino 400 in Kansas. And it does pinpoint some drivers it believes the market is too low on.

Let's run through those drivers now, identifying some whose NASCAR betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook may be a bit longer than they should be.

Ryan Blaney to Win (+2200)

One of the big gainers over the summer has been Ford. Primarily, that has been via RFK Racing with Chris Buescher having won three of the past four oval races.

If any of those gains transfer to Team Penske, Ryan Blaney could be a threat this weekend.

Blaney already proved he has at least some speed on the 1.5-mile tracks this year. He won Charlotte, the most recent race on this track type, and posted a third-place average running position.

The summer hasn't been stellar, but Blaney hasn't been totally out to lunch. He had a 10th-place average running position in both Michigan and Darlington despite Darlington having been one of his worst tracks historically.

If you look at recent races, Kansas will seem like a rough track for Blaney. He hasn't had a top-five finish since 2017. But some of that is bad luck, and Blaney had three top-fives in his first six races here.

If Blaney were among the favorites, I wouldn't bet him. The lack of speed for Ford across the full season would disqualify that. But I've got his win odds above the 4.3% implied mark here, allowing me to buy in and take advantage of some uncertainty. I'm also showing value on Blaney to finish top 10 at -120 if you're more skeptical of his upside.

Erik Jones to Finish Top 10 (+550)

Similar to Blaney, Erik Jones has also struggled recently in Kansas. Like, really struggled. I just don't think someone with his skill and recent speed should have top-10 odds this long.

Jones has raced Kansas five times since leaving Joe Gibbs racing. His best finish is 21st across five races. W.O.O.F.

But Legacy Motor Club has really turned things around of late. Jones has finished top-10 in four straight races that have used this rules package, and he had good speed in Charlotte before a transmission issue ended his day early.

It's possible Jones is just lost at this track. But he did have a string of five straight top-10s (including three top-fives) back when he was with JGR. I'm fine betting against track history and betting on form here. My model has Jones at 21.9% for a top 10, up from 15.4% implied.

AJ Allmendinger to Finish Top 10 (+800)

Another team that has made gains during the summer is Kaulig Racing. We just haven't noticed much because those gains have been in the mid-pack rather than at the front. And those gains make AJ Allmendinger a value at +800 for a top 10.

Allmendinger enters Kansas coming off a 13th-place finish in Darlington in which he had a 14th-place average running position. He has had a top-19 average running position in four straight races using this rules package, netting one top-10 finish in that span. It's not flashy, but it's an improvement.

His finishes on 1.5-mile tracks this year are 18th, 14th, and 14th. He's at least in contention on this track type, and his team seems to have gained a bit of speed. As a result, my model has his top-10 odds at 16.0%, up from 11.1% implied.

Austin Cindric to Finish Top 10 (+850)

My model's actually a bit higher on Austin Cindric than it is on Allmendinger, and his betting odds are longer. So at least in the model's eyes, if you're picking just one of these two, Cindric's the better bet.

Part of this does stem from track history. Cindric's average running positions in Kansas as a rookie were 12th and 11th, two of his better runs on non-drafting ovals for the season. Cindric finished 31st here in the spring, but that came after a loose wheel led to a spin and a two-lap penalty.

This year has been brutal to Cindric with just 3 top-10s in 27 races. He did show life in Michigan, though, holding an 11th-place average running position that resulted in a 12th-place finish. If some of that speed carries over to a track where he has run well, we could see his fortune start to shift.

My model has Cindric's top-10 odds at 17.7%, up from 10.5% implied.

Have a driver you think will run well this weekend? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR betting odds to see where they're at.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.