MLB Win Total Betting: Will the Padres Rebound This Season?

Zack Bussiere
Zack Bussiere@ZackBussiere

After missing the playoffs with an 82-80 record last season, the San Diego Padres have spent the offseason attempting to balance a rebuild with a roster that still has the talent to compete.

Making that task more difficult for the Padres is their division rivals, the Los Angeles Dodgers, a team that just had one of the best offseasons in recent MLB history.

After an offseason that included trading superstar Juan Soto, what is San Diego’s win total set at for 2024, per the MLB win totals at FanDuel Sportsbook?

The San Diego Padres' win total is listed at 81.5, with -115 odds on the under.

Let's dig into what we can expect from San Diego this year and see which side of the win total should interest you.

All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published. nERD via numberFire. Projections via FanGraphs.

Padres Win Total Odds

Padres Over/Under 81.5 Wins

  • Over: -105
  • Under: -115

Why the Padres Could Win Over 81.5 Games (-105)

Despite coming up short last season, the Padres still have an extremely talented roster. Even after the departures of Juan Soto and Blake Snell, San Diego’s roster still features Fernando Tatis Jr. (5.8 projected WAR, per FanGraphs), Manny Machado (4.0 WAR), and Xander Bogaerts (3.6 WAR).

Their starting rotation currently includes three pitchers who FanGraphs projects to have WARs greater than 2.0 -- Joe Musgrove (2.9), Yu Darvish (2.8), and Michael King (2.4).

Two things can be true -- the Padres are missing two huge talents from last season and their roster still features several elite players.

FanGraphs projects the Padres to take a step back on offense and defense. Their projection of 4.52 runs per game ranks 23rd and is slightly down from last season's production (4.64). Their projection of 4.52 runs allowed per game is more than a half-run worse than what they permitted last season (4.0) but still ranks 11th.

The Padres' path to over 81.5 wins most likely comes from their offense slightly overperforming -- something that is certainly possible with the stars they have -- and their starting rotation performing around the level of a top-10 group.

Why the Padres Could Win Under 81.5 Games (-115)

The Padres surrendered the second-fewest runs in baseball last season and still missed the playoffs. In 2024, they are expected to be worse on both sides of the ball, and three of the teams in their division are expected to be better or roughly the same as they were a year ago.

While San Diego’s run differential is expected to decline from +104 run to +1, the run differentials for the Arizona Diamondbacks (-15 to +23) and San Francisco Giants (-45 to +2) are expected to improve. Combine that with the Dodgers -- a team FanGraphs projects to have the second-most wins (93) and second-best run differential (+119) -- and the Padres find themselves in an exceedingly difficult environment. Any steps back the Padres take will be magnified by the expected improvement of the other teams in the NL West.

The Padres are not projected to be a top-10 team on either side of the ball. With their run prevention expected to worsen by more than a half-run per game, San Diego's margin for error is gone. Their outlook is that of an average team in a difficult division, which should make finishing above .500 a tall task.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.