MLB

MLB Betting Picks for Wednesday 4/3/24

Gabriel Santiago
Gabriel Santiago@gps_onthemic
MLB Betting Picks for Wednesday 4/3/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals, 6:45 p.m. ET

Pirates -1.5 (+106)

A young and fiery group, the Pittsburgh Pirates have surged out of the gate in 2024. At 5-0 thus far, they are preparing for a second contest versus the Washington Nationals in the nation's capital. Pittsburgh managed to spoil the Nats' home opener on Monday, 8-4, before a scheduled day off on yesterday.

For today, Mitch Keller (PIT) and Trevor Williams (WSH) are the projected starters in D.C. Williams -- the owner of a 5.09 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) in 2023 -- will be pitching against his former club, as he spent his first five big-league seasons with the Pirates. Keller gives Pittsburgh a significant edge on the mound as he ended 2023 with a 3.83 SIERA.

Staying with the theme of bullying bottom teams on the run line, Pittsburgh -1.5 (+106) is certainly appealing in my eyes. According to numberFire, the Buccos (3.13 nERD) have been the fifth-best team overall in 2024. Conversely, the Nationals (-2.23 nERD) chime in at 24th of 30.

Through five games, the Pirates boast three different hitters with an OPS north of 1.000: outfielders Michael Taylor and Bryan Reynolds along with third baseman Ke'Bryan Hayes. Their efforts have powered Pittsburgh's scoring clip of 7.8 runs per game, which is currently tops in the Majors.

In terms of run line wagers, the Pirates are 5-0 in 2024 while Washington is 2-2. Let's continue to ride this plus-money streak, banking on the better team with the better pitcher to win by two or more runs.

San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers, 10:10 p.m. ET

Over 8.0 Runs (-118)

Let us shift our gaze toward Southern California.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are attempting to sweep the arch-rival San Francisco Giants at Chavez Ravine this evening. Tuesday's meeting was close, but Los Angeles -- thanks to consecutive hits from Gavin Lux and Enrique Hernandez -- used a three-run fourth inning to outlast the Giants, 5-4.

In an attempt to not get too complex here, the over has been a strong theme in this intrastate series. On Monday, these sides combined for 11 runs at Dodger Stadium before producing 9 total runs last night. Additionally, Wednesday's set total of eight runs (-118 over/-104 under) is the lowest number we have seen through this three-game set.

For the third straight night, first pitch in Los Angeles is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. With seemingly identical playing conditions as the past two evenings, Tyler Glasnow and lefty Kyle Harrison are Wednesday's probable pitchers. Both players command respect on the mound, but it is worth mentioning that the Dodgers have actually hit southpaws (.894 OPS) better than righties (.848) to this point in 2024.

This NL West romp displays an estimated score of 4.92-3.29 in favor of L.A., per numberFire's MLB game projections. The model yields a combined total of 8.21 runs, which expresses support for the over. Also, with no hook on this line, there is the safety of a push (a final result of 6-2, 5-3 etc.). Should the game go to extra innings at 4-4 (unlikely, but not improbable), we'll have an automatic winner with over 8 runs.

Remember: Mookie Betts is hitting .500 (1.772 OPS/5 HR) through 30 at bats this season. So long as Mookie keeps playing as this kind of level, I would not doubt any aspect of the Dodgers' loaded offense.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.