MLB Betting Picks for Wednesday 4/10/24

Gabriel Santiago
Gabriel Santiago@gps_onthemic
MLB Betting Picks for Wednesday 4/10/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox, 7:10 p.m. ET

Over 9.0 Runs (-106)

A very special baseball game is shaping up in Massachusetts on Wednesday. Not only will we see a divisional clash between two longtime rivals in the Baltimore Orioles and Boston Red Sox, but baseball's top prospect -- shortstop Jackson Holliday -- will be making his Major-League debut here. Of course, what better setting for this than the game's oldest active venue?

Baltimore clobbered the Sox at Fenway yesterday, trouncing their AL East foe 7-1. With Holliday most likely to be inserted as the starting second baseman (and Gunnar Henderson at short) going forward, I think the Orioles will keep it rolling on offense.

To this point, the O's have scored 5.4 runs per game while striking out in only 19.1% of at bats; that latter figure is the third-lowest rate in the American League. For Wednesday, Baltimore will face BoSox starter Kutter Crawford. The right-handed journeyman has pitched efficiently in 2024 as exemplified by a 52% ground-ball rate, but I believe Holliday -- who swings left-handed -- and the Orioles can get Crawford out of rhythm.

In that same vein, if you like the rookie's matchup with Crawford tonight, FanDuel Sportsbook is offering various batting prop markets on Holliday. The young infielder is currently priced with +270 odds to record multiple hits in Wednesday's game.

On offense, Boston has been no slouch this season. Entering Game Two with Baltimore, the Red Sox have churned out 4.64 runs per game. That is a respectable scoring clip, but keep in mind that Boston started the year with a 10-game road trip on the West Coast -- perhaps the bats begin to boom amongst Fenway's oddities.

Southpaw Cole Irvin will toe the rubber Wednesday for the O's. Irvin has compiled a 5.37 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) in 2024, which is quite poor. Given the many talented hitters in this contest, I am on over nine total runs (-106 odds).

numberFire echoes over support here, showing a winning score projection of 4.87-4.84 (9.71 sum) for Baltimore. Overall, their model gives under nine runs just a 39.8% chance on Wednesday. Keep in mind -- extra innings are on our side when playing overs.

Houston Astros at Kansas City Royals, 7:40 p.m. ET

Royals Moneyline (+102)

For Game Two of Houston Astros-Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium, we see a couple of projected starters on opposite ends of the experience spectrum.

Wednesday in K.C. will feature Seth Lugo versus Spencer Arrighetti. Lugo -- who has given up just one run through 12.2 IP since moving over to the American League -- will make his third start for the Royals while Houston's Arrighetti is making his MLB debut (a theme on Wednesday) after three seasons in the minors.

Kansas City has been a quality offensive side in 2024, as they boast a .723 team OPS. Additionally, the Royals show the highest collective hard-hit rate (39.5%) in the Majors right now. Simply, Wednesday will be a tough bid for Arrighetti to debut.

On Tuesday, Kansas City outlasted the 'Stros in extra frames by a score of 4-3. Star shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. provided an RBI triple along with a run scored. Local favorite and veteran catcher Salvador Perez did well to contribute the walk-off hit for K.C. With that, the Astros have fallen to 4-8 on the year -- Houston may have a problem.

According to numberFire's MLB power rankings, the Royals (1.50 nERD) show up ninth overall while the Astros (0.56 nERD) are further down at 15th. Considering that, along with the aforementioned pitching matchup, I like Kansas City to win (+102 odds) at home for a second straight night.

Over at ESPN Analytics, the Royals have a 56.2% chance to win on Wednesday evening.

Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers, 8:05 p.m. ET

Rangers -1.5 (+114)

For an AL West affair, the Oakland Athletics and Texas Rangers are set for Game Two from Arlington. Yesterday, the A's were victorious behind a late comeback, ultimately defeating Texas, 4-3. Still, all of Oakland's run production came from one player.

Simply, I don't expect Shea Langeliers to smash three homers out of Globe Life Field for a second consecutive night. In a contest where the Rangers have a clear talent advantage, I like the home team to cover the run line for plus money (+114 odds).

Lefty Cody Bradford (3.89 SIERA) will start on the mound for Texas on Wednesday. Thus far in 2024, Bradford has allowed an effective 24.2% hard-hit rate. For Oakland, we will see veteran Ross Stripling (4.14 SIERA). Stripling carries a 1.42 WHIP at the moment, which could translate to tough games supported by an Athletics offense that is scoring just 3.09 runs per game.

Oakland has a .284 OBP in 68 plate appearances versus left-handed pitching this season. Those numbers indicate that the A's have not seen many southpaws in 2024, but they are not thriving when they do.

We should not forget: despite a slower start, Texas is still the defending world champion. Their offensive core of Corey Seager, Adolis Garcia, Marcus Semien and Jared Walsh all show an OPS north of .810 right now. After a loss to Oakland, I believe the Rangers will bounce back tonight, defeating the Athletics by two or more runs.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.