MLB

MLB Betting Picks for Friday 4/5/24

Gabriel Santiago
Gabriel Santiago@gps_onthemic
MLB Betting Picks for Friday 4/5/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Braves, 7:20 p.m. ET

Diamondbacks +1.5 (+112)

Reigning National League champions aren't typically priced at plus-money underdogs (+112 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook) on the run line this early in the season, but that's the exact situation for the Arizona Diamondbacks this Friday.

The D-backs are at the Atlanta Braves this weekend, which is no small task. Atlanta is 3-2 to this point, having already dealt with a couple rainouts in 2024. Pertaining to the visitors, Arizona has played to a 4-3 record.

After two impressive series against the Colorado Rockies and New York Yankees, the Diamondbacks boast a collective .370 wOBA, which is the fourth-highest in MLB. From there, Arizona has struck out in only 17% of at-bats. For comparison, the Braves are striking out at a 21% clip.

Atlanta will have Spencer Strider toeing the rubber today, so I can respect the Braves' moneyline label of -290 odds. Still, there can be value in taking 1.5 runs with the "Serpientes."

Arizona's offense is potent. Powered by reigning ROY Corbin Carroll, switch-hitting Ketel Marte and N.L. Player of the Week Lourdes Gurriel, I like the D-backs tonight.

In 2023, the Diamondbacks won two of three games played in Atlanta. Arizona will start southpaw Tommy Henry on Friday. As great as the Braves are, they have struggled against left-handed pitching this season, showing a .676 team OPS through that split (66 total PA).

Getting 1.5 runs with a plus-money payback, I'll take a chance on the D-backs. numberFire has these sides ranked neck-and-neck. Atlanta (3.26 nERD) is second in the Majors while Arizona (3.23 nERD) is third.

Houston Astros at Texas Rangers, 8:05 p.m. ET

Rangers Moneyline (+108)

It is already time for the first "Silver Boot Series" of the 2024 season. To this point, the Houston Astros have struggled as exemplified by their 2-5 record. As for the Texas Rangers, the reigning champs sit at 4-2, which is tied with the Los Angeles Angels for first place in the AL West right now.

Texas is right back to crushing the baseball in 2024. Through six contests, the Rangers have produced MLB's third-best Statcast hard-hit rate (39.4%). On top of that, they have scored 5.83 runs per game so far while Houston is at 4.29 runs per game.

The projected starters at Globe Life Field (on Apple TV+) are Hunter Brown and lefty Cody Bradford. Through one start for the Rangers in 2024, Bradford earned a 2.68 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA). Brown also has one appearance this season, displaying a 1.50 WHIP over four innings of work.

Texas has taken two out of three games each from solid clubs in the Chicago Cubs and Tampa Bay Rays. Already, sluggers Corey Seager (.917 OPS) and Adolis Garcia (6 RBI) are hammering the rawhide. In Friday's Lone Star clash, I have faith in this duo to power the Rangers to victory in Arlington -- Texas' +108 moneyline price is lucrative.

Seattle Mariners at Milwaukee Brewers, 8:10 p.m. ET

Over 7.5 Runs (-110)

As one of the lowest totals on Friday's slate, I believe the Seattle Mariners and Milwaukee Brewers have a great shot to produce over 7.5 total runs. Considering this contest will be played indoors at American Family Field, hitting conditions are always ideal in this part of Wisconsin.

The probable pitchers here are Logan Gilbert and Freddy Peralta, both of whom are quality hurlers. Still, I think there is enough between the two respective lineups to provide at least eight combined runs (-110 odds).

Milwaukee is at home for a second consecutive series. They have started the year at 4-1 overall, scoring three or more runs in every contest so far. Behind Rhys Hoskins (1.076 OPS) and a resurging Christian Yelich (.511 xwOBA), we've already seen the Brew Crew put up as many as seven runs in a game this year.

The Mariners feature a talented batting order but have gotten off to a slow start. Seattle's best player is Julio Rodriguez, who is fresh off his first 30-30 campaign in 2023. Behind him, fellow outfielder Mitch Haniger (.824 OPS) is seeing the ball well. Add in Mariner favorites J.P. Crawford and Cal Raleigh, and there seems to be enough offense between these two dugouts to go over 7.5 total runs.

According to numberFire's MLB game projections, the M's are expected to win on the road by a score of 4.23-3.99. That equates to 8.22 estimated runs on Friday evening. In a controlled climate, I am confident in both the lineups and the model.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.