MLB Betting Picks and Player Props to Target for Saturday 6/29/24

Austin Swaim
Austin SwaimASwaim3
MLB Betting Picks and Player Props to Target for Saturday 6/29/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies

Phillies -1.5 (-120)

The Philadelphia Phillies are in a position to roll over the Miami Marlins today. I'm a bit surprised this runline doesn't carry a bit more juice.

Philly will send Aaron Nola to the bump, and he's been electric in 2024 to the tune of a 3.39 ERA that is well-supported by his expected ERA (3.52 xERA). Nola also resides in the 70th percentile or better in hard-hit rate, barrel rate, and chase rate.

He'll face a task that hasn't been too tall in June. The Marlins have just a 65 wRC+ against righties this month with a supremely high strikeout rate (24.8%). Their offense is significantly outgunned by the Phils, sporting a 116 wRC+ this month in the same split.

The home side also has a significantly easier pitcher to target. Miami's Roddery Munoz has an ugly 6.72 xERA this season while allowing hard contact on 47.5% of the balls in play.

I typically don't like going back to a runline after it cashed the night before, but considering the Phillies also have the best bullpen xFIP this month (3.27), I don't see the path for the Marlins to hang within a run.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlanta Braves

Under 3.5 Runs in First 5 Innings (-110)

Whenever Paul Skenes takes the bump, it's a ton of fun to have coin behind him. We'll add in another stellar arm, Max Fried, to the occasion today.

The Pittsburgh Pirates' new ace and prohibitive favorite for the NL Rookie of the Year has dominated to the tune of a 2.65 xERA and absurd 33.7% strikeout rate thus far. That's come with a walk rate (4.4%) that demands no trade-offs for the gas he throws. It'll help him that the Atlanta Braves offense is struggling against righties without Ronald Acuna Jr.; they've got the sixth-worst OPS in MLB (.654) against them this month.

On the flip side, Fried should still be able to handle a Pittsburgh offense that does improve against lefties -- but not much. Their .692 OPS in the split in June is just a tick better than against righties (.660), but Fried is no ordinary lefty. He's taken the reigns in Spencer Strider's absence to post a 3.35 xERA and an extremely low rate of hard contact (31.5%).

I want nothing to do with the full game's under given the adventure that can come from the Buccos 'pen (4.39 xFIP in June), but this should be a pitching duel at Truist Park.

Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers

Cubs Moneyline (-105)
Justin Steele Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-136)

The Chicago Cubs will send a key advantage to the mound this afternoon as they hope to nod their series with the Milwaukee Brewers at one.

Chicago's Justin Steele is having another outstanding season by ERA (3.08) or xERA (3.27). Luckily for him, Milwaukee significantly falls off against southpaws, registering a putrid .616 OPS in the split this month. It'll be tough for the Brew Crew to score on Saturday.

On the flip side, the Cubbies get to attack Tobias Myers, which is a bit of an easier proposition. Myers' 3.12 ERA is nice, but it's hiding a 4.14 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) and elevated 7.6% barrel rate. Plus, Chicago's offense has a superior .696 OPS facing orthodox pitchers this month.

I'd argue they should be favored on the road, and if they are victorious, expect Steele to pile up a few Ks.

Milwaukee's strikeout rate against lefties this month isn't extremely high (21.9%), but Steele is a -165 favorite to go at least 6.0 innings in this one, and he'll pick up a few punchies along the way. Steele is in the 65th percentile or better in strikeout rate and chase rate.

Our daily MLB projections expect 5.89 innings and 5.82 strikeouts from Steele against the Brewers, so I'm comfortable laying a bit of juice that he gathers at least six of them.

Oakland Athletics at Arizona Diamondbacks

Diamondbacks Over 4.5 Runs (-115)
Ketel Marte 2+ Total Bases (-155)

The Arizona Diamondbacks got hooked on this number last night, leaving three on base in the eighth frame. They'll probably be flirting with it -- at worst -- on Saturday.

Arizona has a quality .749 OPS against lefties this month, and they'll draw a second in two games against the Oakland Athletics. Instead of JP Sears, it'll be Hogan Harris. Though Harris' 2.72 ERA seems like a dramatic improvement, he's hiding a 5.12 xERA, .271 expected batting average, and 10.5% barrel rate behind it. In one of the friendliest MLB venues for hitters, he seems primed to get rocked.

The argument only gets stronger as he departs, though. Oakland's bullpen has the second-worst xFIP in baseball this month (4.92).

numberFire expects 5.92 runs from Arizona today, and with that, we can turn to their switch-hitting leadoff man's base prop.

Ketel Marte has absolutely pummeled lefties this month. He's posted a team-best 1.333 OPS and 262 wRC+ in a decent sample of 34 plate appearances. Though a modest walk rate (11.8%) could derail this prop, he's also posted a massive .483 ISO that shows he can also cash it in one swing.

Our projections expect 2.16 median total bases from the second baseman today.

Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels

Over 8.0 Runs (-112)
Riley Greene 2+ Total Bases (-105)

The first two games of this series have produced seven or fewer runs, but the pitching on both sides could allow offense to win out on Saturday.

At home, the Los Angeles Angels have posted a pair of five-run outings on Detroit Tigers pitching, and Reese Olson's tendency for mistakes could produce another decent day at the dish. Olson's average exit velocity and hard-hit rate allowed are both 10th percentile or worse across baseball.

On the other side, the Tigers might finally be able to get going offensively in Orange County. L.A.'s Griffin Canning has been among the worst starters in baseball all year, combining a 4.80 xERA with elevated flyball (38.8%) and hard-hit (43.3%) rates allowed. That's a cocktail to cede 1.54 HR/9 in MLB's seventh-best park for homers.

I am expecting Detroit to carry the load offensively tonight with Los Angeles chipping in. L.A. also has the the third-worst bullpen xFIP this month (4.83).

With a friendly matchup for all nine innings, I'm looking at Riley Greene's base prop in this one. Greene is just 2-for-8 at the dish in his last three games, but he's a tremendous bet against righties overall. The 23-year-old still has a 198 wRC+, 1.071 OPS, and .288 ISO against them in June. Similar to Marte, his power offsets the concerns of a walk rate (13.2%) that could be an issue for bases.

We've got Greene projected for 2.20 median total bases in today's game, which would merit roughly -182 odds if correct.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.