MLB Betting Picks and Player Props to Target for Saturday 4/27/24

Matthew Lo
Matthew Lo@holla2mlo
MLB Betting Picks and Player Props to Target for Saturday 4/27/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Oakland Athletics at Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore Orioles Over 4.5 Runs (-104)
Jordan Westburg to Record 2+ Bases (+130)

After last night's disappointing two run performance, MLB's sixth ranked offense is in a prime rebound spot on Saturday afternoon with a projected team total at 5.36.

Taking the mound for the Athletics, JP Sears has been all smoke and mirrors this season when comparing his fluky 3.38 ERA with his 5.36 xFIP while the left-hander's skill related metrics including strikeout rate (14.8%) and walk percentage (9.3%) both stand at career worst marks.

With all signs pointing towards a potential implosion at Camden Yards, we can feel comfortable targeting Baltimore's right-handed hitters versus Sears' 4.97 career xFIP in this split with a focus on Jordan Westburg's impressive batted ball form including a .336 expected average and a 12.7% barrel rate this season and a .382 expected and a 56% hard hit rate in his last 42 at-bats.

New York Yankees at Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee Brewers Over 3.5 Runs (-156)

In a matchup versus southpaw Carlos Rodon, Milwaukee recent hot offense present some value against a wild pitcher due to regress when analyzing his current profile including a worrisome 5.09 xFIP, a bloated 11.3% walk percentage, and an unsustainable 85.2% left on-base percentage.

With a projected lineup loaded with nine right-handed bats to take advantage of Rodon's main weakness against the opposing side of the plate (5.37 xFIP, 11.8% walk rate), the Brew Crew really have the perfect setup at home to produce some offense and easily surpass their team total with an expected mark standing at 4.74 runs.

Cleveland Guardians at Atlanta Braves

Marcell Ozuna to Record 2+ Bases (+110)

Heading into Saturday evening in red-hot form, Atlanta's slugger has an ideal spot to record at least two bases against right-hander Tanner Bibee.

There are several reasons to believe Marcell Ozuna can sustain his impressive production in Atlanta when observing the veteran's recent promising batted metrics in his last 79 at-bats including a sizzling .410 expected average and a 57% hard hit rate and Bibee's unique reverse splits (12.1% home run to fly-ball ratio, .319 wOBA).

With several data points indicating a big night could be ahead at home, Ozuna offers intriguing value especially at a mispriced 47.6% implied percentage to hit this prop.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.